Yesterday, John Sides and I published an article cautioning journalists against overstating the importance of political events on public opinion (they rarely have a significant effect). Today -- as if on cue -- NBC's First Read newsletter did just that, suggesting that President Obama's approval ratings are down as a result of his deficit speech last week:
Did last week’s speech backfire? A new Washington Post/ABC poll -- which shows President Obama’s approval down to 47%, and with 44% believing the U.S. economy is getting worse (when employment is actually on the rise) -- suggests that the climbing gas prices have soured the public’s mood, big time... [T]his poll, as well as the Gallup surveys, also seems to confirm that the president’s speech last week might not have played well. For one thing, and this is true going back to the ’08 campaign, Obama usually doesn’t get rewarded when he comes off as too partisan (even though the left loves it). More importantly, last week’s speech was on a topic -- the deficit/debt -- that most Americans don’t find as important as the economy/jobs. And in the Post/ABC poll, Obama took a hit with independents, with 55% of them disapproving of his job.
The weasel-worded claim that the Post poll "seems to confirm that the president’s speech last week might not have played well" gives the game away. In reality, the Post estimated that Obama's approval ratings are down four points from its last poll a month ago. Anything that happened during that period could be the cause of the decline. First Read also references a downward blip in Gallup's approval estimate for Obama, but fails to clarify that Gallup's polling, which is much more frequent than the Post's, flatly contradicts their thesis. Obama made his speech on April 13. Gallup's three-day average approval ratings for Obama were 44% for April 10-12 and 44% for April 14-16. Rasmussen polls show no significant before/after change either. So what's the evidence the speech didn't play well again?
Update 4/19 4:16 PM: Greg Marx notes in a comment on my blog that "Chuck Todd and the NBC crew are repeat offenders here; they pulled the same thing with the oil spill."
Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com.
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I know most of you think you must follow him no matter how rediculous it gets (how many more unjustified wars will you follow him into?).
In any case good oratory (and he has that) can only get you so far when there is no substance or the core of the policy is so vehamently flawed. People are begining to see this. Thank goodness 2012 is coming up soon! Can't be soon enough!
adjective
of, based on, or serving as a hypothesis : that option is merely hypothetical at this juncture.
• supposed but not necessarily real or true : the hypothetical tenth planet.
• Logic denoting or containing a proposition of the logical form if p then q.
noun (usu. hypotheticals)
a hypothetical proposition or statement : Finn
As Emperor Joseph II said to Amadeus: "My dear young man, don't take it too hard. Your work is ingenious. It's quality work. ...there are simply too many notes, that's all. Just cut a few and it will be perfect."
Nice plan.
Gas prices increase = Decrease in approval rating for President Whomever
The Federal Government is irresponsibly and wastefully spending money which it does not have. Your "great relief" leader is telling us that unless we raise the debt ceiling from 14 Trillion to 15 Trillion we will not be able to fund the remainder of govt spending for 2011 (MORE than 2010, but NO BUDGET was submitted because Dems were afraid they might lose 2010 congressional seats)!
YOU are 'greatfully relieved' because Obama gives great speeches or because he can justify OUTSPENDING the GOP?
I guess you can rest easy now, babina. Obama is not going to let the Republicans "kill you or bankrupt you." Obama and the Democrats will do that!! LMAO
THERE IS ONE THING ABOUT OUR GOVERNMENT WHEN THEY DO SOMETHING WRONG THEY WELL CONSTANTLY DO IT WRONG. OUR GOVERNMENT IS TRYING DO DESTROY THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!
Still, that his poll numbers are at best stagnant, suggests that a majority of Americans are drifting toward a message that government is evil, but corporations and the sky gods who control them are inherently good. That the middle class is shrinking, is causing an irrational belief that the GOP, because of its obsession with the Market, is the party that will save the American Empire, even as their corporate darlings are the primary cause of such depredations, against the middle class in favor of sky gods.
Selfishness in America.
www.offthegridmpls.blogspot.com
The are called the developing world, the fast track Asian economies and even South American Economies, they are building, expanding, their governments are working to make more jobs and create more wealth. Here we talk about, as is Europe and GB the debt ceilings and how to cut cut cut. But you will notice the wealth of these nations comes from America. Out of your pocket book and into communist countries bank rolls and American investors.
One party suggest we change. Yes the O'man did say this, but one party, the American Party suggest two major changes. First is a cut in the military budget and yes the wars by 25%. Half of that would go into employment benefits, you work four days a week for the money doing what is needed in your town or city, no work no money. Second a billion a year to each state for business creation. (not threw the banks or big business concerns) A Ten teams, a leader and four experts to help people start businesses, start ups and in need. They would supply the expertise to make the business happen!.
One party, The American Party knows when threatened by losing power Democrats and Republicans will again be bullish on America!