According to New York Times columnist David Leonhardt, President Obama's advisers are seeking inspiration from the campaigns of presidents who were re-elected despite increased unemployment:
Mr. Obama's advisers, meanwhile, are looking for lessons from re-election bids that overcame a first-term rise in unemployment, like those of George W. Bush, Richard Nixon and Dwight Eisenhower, Republicans all. That's a turnabout from the Obama team's initial plan to base its re-election campaign on the economy's progress since 2008.
The problem for Obama is that the first terms of the three presidents in question (Bush 43, Nixon, and Eisenhower) produced reasonable income growth, which is a better predictor of presidential election outcomes than unemployment. Consider this modified plot from Douglas Hibbs, whose Bread and Peace model employs a weighted measure of real disposable personal income growth -- the presidents in question are highlighted in green:
Eisenhower, Nixon, and Bush 43 all presided over at least moderate income growth during their first four years in office; Obama so far has not. (The same applies for GDP growth, another frequently used variable in forecasting models.) Unless the state of the economy improves, it's not likely to matter who he models his 2012 campaign after.
[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]
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Michael Thornton: Millions of Long-Term Unemployed Are Living Desperately on the Edge
1. Since WWII, no 1st-term president whose party's suffered a midterm rout has been defeated for reelection, with the narrow & unique exception of Gerald Ford. That's because the opposition party often over-reaches.
2. Since WWII, no president who runs for re-election without a significant primary challenge is defeated in the general election. And no Democrat is stupid enough to hand the WH to a Republican by challenging BO.
3. Since WWII, the most charismatic candidate has won without exception. And BO is very telegenic, whereas no GOP candidate is anywhere near that.
4. The demographic make-up of America is changing—with groups more inclined to support Democrat ideas increasing as a % of both the total population and the VOITNG electorate. People born after 1980, minorities, single women, not-deeply-religious folk are all gaining while the "WASP"'s are declining. The "Tea Party" folk are so outspoken precisely because they see themselves losing clout in a USA less & less like them every day. Remember how GWB in 2004 was the most NARROWLY re-elected prez since Woodrow Wilson, even though he had everything going for him? If John Kerry had only taken Ohio! Demography is destiny.
5. People blame the policies of GWB and the (big) business community, not BO, for the recession, and realize that the economy will take many years to heal no matter who's in the WH. So people aren't expecting much from BO in the first place.
There is one commonality to the incumbents that have lost their re-election bids since the 20th century began - a primary challenge. No president has ever lost without facing a primary challenge, with the exception of Herbert Hoover.
Ford - Reagan
Carter - Kennedy
Bush the elder - Buchanan
Unless Obama receives a serious primary challenge he will remain the favorite for re-election as far as I'm concerned.
I suppose my real disappointment is that he is not a fighter or an effective leader. His natural mode is to compromise and to seek concensus and in doing so, with a phalenx of rabbid tea party confederates storming the gates, he just seems weak. Compromise is like marriage, both parties have to want it. Clearly the tea party wants a divorce- so give it to them!
Now is the time for Obama to draw on his core principles- beliefs that he holds near and dear to his heart that give him direction and anchor him at his foundation to policies that he believes in. The debt ceiling is a gut check for him and instead of digging deep, he is pleading , "but I am willing to give them the store, my home, and my children, but they cannot have my wife.
How about if he does not give them anything. How about if he just pulls out a copy of the 14th Amendment, rolls it up like he would a newspaper and smacks Mitch Mconnel with it on national TV...and then raises the debt ceiling on his own.
Instead of listening to the delusions of those who created the mess, let's see what Obama has done , even with the most obstruction by a hostile and unpatriotic opposition party. Obama Administration’s Achievements (Thus Far) » Obama's Achievements Center
While Republicans accuse Obama of having a green energy agenda, what has that accomplished? Green Jobs Are Real: German and American Solar Industry Both Employ More People Than U.S. Steel Production | Renewable Energy News Article
The truth is that he is incredibly smart and crafty but that he is a terrible leader. He just does not have the leadership gene, and I hate to say it, but it's true. He would say, for example, that he has not come up with his own budget because the republicans were stupid enough to wade into treacherous waters first with the Ryan Budget and we see how that turned out.
I would say a leader leads. He sets the agenda and the direction of the country. This budget debate is a perfect example. The republicans have framed the entire debate with not-so-clever but very effective talking points- "we do not have a revenue problem...we have a spending problem". The super wealthy are called "job creators" and the most powerful man in the debate is not BO, it's Grover Norquest.
And now BO advisors are looking for "wrong lessons" Here's a lesson, good leaders get re-elected and bad ones dont. I am convince that BO is brilliant and should probably be president of Harvard; I am not convinced he is a leader and should be president of the United States.
I'm not really sure what kind of "leadership" you're looking for. We haven't really had a president who could shepherd legislation through congress effectively since LBJ. Actually Obama's record on passing legislation is probably the best since LBJ. He came up through legislative ranks and seems somewhat better at that end of it then our last several past presidents.
I suppose he doesn't have the rhetorical flourish people thought he'd lead with. The kind that could inspire America again. He showed flashes of it in September '09 with his health care speech and again in January '11 at the Tuscon memorial, but that's about it.
I have to say... he's facing the most unified opposition since the days of the "solid south." In our current political context, I'm not sure any democrat can lead effectively. A republican president has more upside potential in the sense that there are more prospects for crossover support. Democrats are reduced to prostrating themselves for the votes of 1 Maine senator.
Also my other favorite president lead, LBJ, I hope he realizes the positive effect he had on this country. Though he had a Democratic controlled congress much of them were bitterly opposed to President Johnson and President Johnson convinced Senator Everett Dirksen a Republican to help him get his legislation through.
Like Aaron, I wonder what exactly you want him to do. Seems to me you are caught up in some kind of fantasy about what a leader should be doing. I'm amazed at what he has been able to accomplish given the incredibly difficult political environment he has to operate in. Among his critics, none seem to have an answer as to exactly how he could get more done.
What happens when all the government income is used to pay for debt service? What happens when gov cannot pay for Medicare and other services? The investment was made and is not making a return. We have to pay the bill on what we already owe.
That's particularly sad, since he himself is the best Republican president since Hoover.
To top it all off he & his "experts" can't recognize a jobs depression at the same time as the banks go under. And one of them is supposedly an expert on the history of FDR & the Great Depression??
The "best & brightest" are again proved to be neither!
Acute Potomac know-it-all virus runs rampant.
It's time to find out how many want their jobs enough to make sure everyone else has jobs or adequate SS benefits, adequate medical care, adequate nutrition support, etc.
Clinton helped to destroy the safety net & it's time for the people to make sure there's someone working for us in D.C.
It's simple - trade agreements with Panama & Colombia to benefit the Banksters & allow corporations to keep their foreign revenue away from The Treasury/IRS + cuts to SS/Medicare/Medicaid when they are already inadequate for good health already = anti-incumbent votes from POTUS down to city/county, school district!
Supporters enjoy FDR who actually took a bad situation and made it a disease, taking taxes to 90% of income, price controls so that small firms could not compete against the big ones. FDR was a disaster. You mistake public works and vast employment initiatives as FDR when it was actually Hoover.
I used to think Carter was the worst president with the worst admin and worst decisions followed by FDR but I have changed my mind.
By JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 07/20/2011 06:35 PM ET
Featured Stocks
HD Home Depot Inc * Top-Rated Company IBD: Why don't more businesses speak out?
Marcus: They are frightened to death — frightened that they will have the IRS or SEC on them. In my 50 years in business, I have never seen executives of major companies who were more intimidated by an administration.
IBD: What's your message to the business community?
Marcus: It's time to stand up and fight. These people in Washington are out there making your life difficult, and many of you won't survive. Why aren't you doing something about it? The free enterprise system made this country what it is today, and we've got to keep it alive. We are on the edge of the abyss.
At the Job Creators Alliance, we're trying to recruit people who are willing to step up and say: " I've had it. There's no one representing me. I want to be out there and fight."
Probably for both parties, since to push 60 in the senate for republicans, they'll have to have more Scott Browns and Olympia Snowes.