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Superdelegates Under the Desk
Like the rest of America, Rep. Rahm Emanuel knows that Hillary Clinton's quest for the presidency is dying a slow and irreversible death. He has even called Barack Obama "the presumptive nominee." Yet when it comes to the question of how Emanuel will cast his own all-important superdelegate ballot, he couldn't be more cautious. Known in political circles for his killer instinct, Emanuel describes his current position as "hiding under my desk."
What is it about the Clintons that puts the fear of God in these hard-nosed political people? Why are Emanuel and the rest of the undecided superdelegates so fearful of finally ending this thing?
We've known for a long time that this ridiculous system of superdelegates will ultimately decide the nominee. What's clear now is that Obama will end the campaign ahead in the popular vote, pledged delegates, and states won. However you add it up - and the Clinton campaign is advancing new theories of math daily -- Obama has won the primaries.
The superdelegates have two choices: back up the will of the people, or reverse it. This should be a no-brainer, and for most of them, it is. There's no way the Democratic Convention is going to overturn the clear result of the primaries -- you couldn't invent a better way for them to antagonize their own base and increase the odds of losing the general election.
But instead of stepping up to the plate and ending this thing, the majority of undecided superdelegates are waiting for someone else to do it, emerging from under the desk in a trickle instead of a flood. Many of them have admitted that Obama will be the nominee, and even said that Clinton's continual hammering of him will damage his prospects in the general election.
Rep. James Clyburn has called the Clintons' negative campaign tactics "bizarre" and publicly worries that her attacks will damage the party in the fall. But his superdelegate vote? He's still undecided.
Rep. Charles Rangel responded to Hillary's latest race-baiting tactics with the quote: "I can't believe Sen. Clinton would say anything that dumb." She did. And Rangel? Still officially supporting her.
Even Nancy Pelosi has been intimidated into backing away from her comments that superdelegates should support the will of the people -- as if that is a highly controversial statement.
Yes, there are still states left to vote, and ideally it should be the voters who decide the nominee and not the superdelegates. But the reality is, if the superdelegate system was not in place, Obama would have already mathematically wrapped up the nomination. The only chance Clinton has of winning is to convince the superdelegates to overturn the will of the people.
The undecided superdelegates should step up now and say they won't let that happen. It's time to come out from under the desk.
Brendan Spiegel is a former reporter at Congressional Quarterly and the editor of Endless Simmer.
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Wonderful editorial! Kudos to you, Brendan Spiegel!
I understand, up to a point, the reluctance of the superdelegates to add the sorely needed punctuation point (.) to this protracted and futile leg of the race for Hillary. HOWEVER, I don't believe this is the only force at play. I see the superdelegates' reluctance as yet one more sympom of our sick politics in this country. Specifically, it is this fear of the consequences. And, yes, any politician who knows the Clintons, knows that you do not cross the Clintons if you value your career.
This is the sort of Washington mentality that allowed so many good politicians to vote yes for the war in Iraq. This is the mentality that will keep this country mired in bad policies, ruled by dysfunctional motives, until something changes. Hence, my vote for Barack Obama, a man who aspires to better things.
For the record, come next election -- while weighing the integrity of the candidates in my state -- I'll certainly remember those superdelegates from this primary season who had the integrity to do the right thing, consequences be damned.
The SD's know what the Clintons are capable of. The SD's don't want to piss of the Clinton supporters. They want to give them the illusion that this battle had been fought fairly. Only then can the SD's come out and endorse Obama in droves.
The Clintons cannot steal this nomination nor can they sabotage Obama's chance although they've done much damage already. It will be a political suicide for the Clintons. I've said it before and will say it again. 17 million people supported Obama. You can't dismiss these people as if it was just a dream. There will be more of them in 4 years. 2012 will be worse for the Clintons. There will be less older population to support her in 2012, but there will be more millennials eligible to vote in 2012. Think about that.
The Clintons like Richard Nixon kept an enemies list while in the white house and they routinely used the FBI files to go after anyone that challenged their power so you can imagine that they are holding information on many of these cowardly people. The Clintons use fear.
The superdelegates have the same problem the Democratic Party as a whole has. They lack a spine. Democrats were elected in 2006 to end the war and stand up to Bush. They failed at both. Now we have superdelegates who know what they have to do, but are afraid to do it. The spinelessness of the Democratic Party is beyond comprehension. They're not afraid of the Clintons. They're just afraid of their critics telling them they did the wrong thing. If they cut off funding for the war, their critics would've labeled them as weak. If they came out now and supported Obama, they would be accused of trying to steal the process from the people who haven't voted yet.
He and everyone else is afraid of Hillary's jack booted attack dogs. I recently wrote an article about just this kind of thing http://www.futureosophy.com/search/label/Politics How can anyone possibly want this woman to be president.
I think there is a lot of wisdom in the saying, "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line..." Certainly, this is another glowing example of Democratic politician spinelessness. However, in their defense, if they are planning to stay on the sidelines in an attempt to pacify the Clinton supporters by showing they were willing to give her a full shot, then that is fine with me. I will not feel the same way if after Puerto Rico (June 4th) we are still waiting on them.
I agree 100%.
Good comment.
I was willing to give them the credit of giving Hillary her room, and enabling her to remove herself gracefully. But as is usual she is testing the strength of the rope that may, or may not, hang everyone. The only way the Superdelegates can redeem themselves at this point is to refuse to change the goals posts and the rules to suit Hillary. You will see a blow out that not only ruins this election cycle, but will be the undoing of the Democratic Party for a generation.
It says a whole lot about the Democratic Party. The same way they cowered under George Bush on the Iraq issue.
I just wonder if it was John Edwards or Joe Biden instead of Barack Obama, if they would still be waiting this thing out.
I wonder.
I was feeling good, even with the West Va. debacle, today, until some of the media pundits began hounding on "the Obama supporters say they will vote for clinton in the general if some unforeseen event occurs to end Obama's lead..." this along with; " clinton's supporters say they will never ever vote for Obama in the fall.... at least, most of them." I believe it. anyone who thinks hillary is presidential has more than one loose screw.
And the truth is: Obama supporters are like Obama. Respectful and to coin an old word, nice.
I see the "respect" in all the responses on the part of the Obamatons in all of these posts. Obama will never win in November. There is much in his past that will make the 'swiftboating' of Kerry look like kindergarten. My screw is loose. Obamatons don't even have one. It came out long ago.
knosiswar- Can you be more specific? What is it about is past? Do you think there is anything in Hillary's past that also might be "swiftboated?'
I'm so sick of hearing this crap about Obama can't win in November because Hillary's supporters won't vote for him!....well I got news for you.....,your dirty heroine can't and won't win either .She can't win without the black vote.Let her try and steal this nomination from Obama and see how blacks come out and vote against her or sit home! I'm tired of Hillary and all the damn drama she she carries with her!
Here's the bitter irony. The Supes were a "council of the wise" created to help out powerful, well-connected pols with high name recognition like Clinton, not Obama. The Supes were created to overrule the will of the great unwashed and spank upstarts like Obama and send them back to the Junior Varsity for having the audacity to hope that they could be President. Now the upstart (with the help of the great unwashed) has put the Supes in the hot seat and they are VERY uncomfortable. It reminds me of the closing scene in "Meet John Doe" when James Gleason says: "There you are Connell, THE PEOPLE! Try and lick that!"
There have been many different ways that the superdelegates have been given excuses or have made excuses for themselves. One has been the popular vote.
See, "Bad Faith and the Superdelegate"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/
The Superdelegates must feel totally threatened by the Clintons. They must be scared of making the wrong move. Yet, in not coming out and voicing their choice, they are making this much harder for everyone. Did you hear what she is saying in her speech in WV? She's not staying "positive" or nonjudgmental. I am NOT sure what they are waiting for. If she was going to win she would have won months ago on Super Tuesday. She was unable to close the deal even though she had name recognition, a former President campaigning for her, and the Democratic Party Machine behind her. NOW, Senator Obama has built a coalition that puts many more states in play, 1,500,000 donors, and many more voters for the party. He is the one chance to end the gridlock that has been going on for 8, 12, almost 16 years. I don't know what the Superdelegates are waiting for. She couldn't win the Democratic nomination when she had everything going for her! Why wait to see what she will do now? It can only tear the party apart and cause more bad feelings to fester.
Strongly agree with you GraceNeeded. Well said. "Dee" from Dallas.
The more Hillary is allowed to stay in this, the more hardened her supporters become. Can't the SD see that? I am just shock at their behaviour. Shame on them.
We may need to relax. On the same day she may have garnered 10 delegates from WV, Obama got 5 supers. The slow trickle may only be due to the wish to appease her supporters (who we need) and not necessarily her or Bill.
The reason they have not all jumped ship is because the type of people who support Hillary are ignorant. Instead of seing things for what they are,they'll think that the superdelegates just don't want Hillary to be the next president,and Hillary being the divisive woman that she is has made things worst by magnifying the racial issue instead of trying to bring this country toghether.
Hillary is not going to drop out. The pundits are wrong. Her people keep saying "just a few more weeks," but she won't drop out then, it's just that the primaries will be over. She'll stay in until the convention. Her argument will be the following: she is entitled to every vote from Florida and Michigan, every vote from Puerto Rico; the caucuses should be disregarded in their entirety. They will find some technical nuanced grounds to say the delegate and superdelegate selection process was flawed and against party rules, and therefore invalid. Without the delegates, Hillary has the majority of the citizens' votes, and is entitled to be the nominee.
Watch her speech tonight. You will no signs of someone preparing to depart. She's not going anywhere. If she can't have the nomination, she will bring down Obama and the party.
Agree with NABNYC. It will not be until Hiliary destroys Obama chance of winning the nomination. Only then will she go anywhere which is very sad. If this does occur, I'm very certain she (Hiliary) will not win the general election. We will have another 8 years of George Bush's policies implimented by John MCCain.
Hillary will not win the general election. I am very certain. From what I know and from what I hear, down here in Florida.
and, pleeeasse, don't let her be VP....
Absolutely right. Its all about Hillary. Her speeches are loaded with "I." Obama talks "we, our, us." She is playing the most underhanded feminine tactic of making everyone around her miserable when she is unhappy.
"But the reality is, if the superdelegate system was not in place, Obama would have already mathematically wrapped up the nomination."
What an 'if.'
'If' it were winner take all, or electoral college based, Hillary would be the nominee. So let's stop with the 'ifs.'
The supers are gauging what to do next. They go for Obama, they throw away all this good momentum on a losing prospect. It's great to see so many people taking part this year. Yes, Obama is ahead with delegates, etc. etc. But what this recent win reflects is the reality of the electorate, and it does not bode well for Dems in November with Obama at the top of the ticket. Realize it, or continue to put your head in the sand.
"This recent win" disregards ALL the wins that Obama has made in favor of a SMALL state that went for BUSH in the past 2 elections, AFTER Obama recently won a LARGE state and split another LARGE state with Clinton. Living in Hillaryland, obviously.
And "if" it was winner take all or EC based, the Obama team has said they would have used a different strategy. They played to win by the rules that were in place, and they beat the Clintons by the rules. If the rules were different they would have played by those rules and still beat Clinton. They knew Mark Penn was a horrible strategist and played it to their advantage. They knew they could rack up huge wins in states Penn was going to write off. With the proportional system you can't do that. Even huge states give little in delegate gains if you only win by a small amount (look at PA, OH, TX), where as if you blow someone out in a smaller state you can gain a good size chunk of delegates.
Everyone's talking up Clinton's big win in WV... but look at Obama's big wins:
States & elections won with 60% or more of the vote:
Barack Obama: 17 Contests (15 States + DC + VI)
* Virgin Islands (89.9%)
* Idaho (79%)
* Hawaii (76%)
* Alaska (75%)
* District of Columbia (75%)
* Kansas (74%)
* Washington (68%)
* Nebraska (68%)
* Minnesota (67%)
* Colorado (67%)
* Georgia (67%)
* Illinois (65%)
* Virginia (64%)
* Maryland (62%)
* North Dakota (61%)
* Wyoming (61%)
* Mississippi (61%)
Hillary Clinton: 2 States
* Arkansas (70%)
* West Virginia (60%)
He's had as many 60%+ wins as she's had total wins overall.
"Why are Emanuel and the rest of the undecided superdelegates so fearful of finally ending this thing?" Could we consider, even for a moment, that it could be the shortcomings of Obama that create the pause? It *could* be that the images of history repeating itself are waking up superdelegates in the middle of the night, with worry about watching the anatomy of failure in November unfold before their very eyes, and are worried about putting their name on it.
With Obama as a candidate, failure is a certainty unless we find McCain is an axe murderer, and even then, it will be only if he doesn't wipe off the axe that he will lose to Obama.
The democratic party desperately needs to split off into a progressive party, to allow the fringe thinking that has fueled Obama as a candidate to not take down the rest of us Democrats.
'to allow the fringe thinking that has fueled Obama as a candidate"
The Clinton's are the people who are bringing down the Democratic Party. Hillary with her "obliterate Iran" comments, and Hillary with her distortions of her foreign policy experience, and Hillary with her 'white voters" comments, and Hillary claiming to be so chaste when actually she's facing an FEC FRAUD lawsuit, and Hillary demanding the DNC to do what she wants rather than accept a compromise.
Wow, now the majority is "the fringe" to Hillary supporters. Living in Hillaryland at its best.
Obama has all the qualities that make for a highly successful candidate, nominee and president, not the least of which are his organizational leadership abilities, which Hillary totally lacks.
You presume that superdelegates are reluctant to side with one candidate or the other because they find Obama to be lacking. If that were so, they would have already pledged for Hillary. More likely they just don't want to stick their heads up because superdelegates are supposed to do their work outside of the limelight, not in it. None of these people want to take center stage after the media has told us for months that it is they, and not the voters, who will determine the outcome of the election. It stinks of corruption, even when no actual corruption exists.
But why am I wasting my breath on you? You are living in Hillaryland.
No, the majority don't make up the fringe. The majority of democrats (not independents, not repulicans) have voted for Hillary.
We desperately need to separate the West Virgina democrats from the Hyde Park democrats. They share nothing in common, and each will disappoint the other by not supporting the other.
Hillary would win in a three way race over McCain and Obama easily as either a third party candidate, or as the Democrat with Obama as the progressive party. My opinion.
I love the argument that Hillary is such a shoe-in during the general election when she cannot even win a contest restricted mostly to the Democratic party base. I assume this is based upon her huge popularity with people outside the Democratic party?
Face it, it is the Dems that love her, and she is losing that contest. It will only get uglier once the rest of the public is let in.
Obama needs Hillary voters, but by the same token, Hillary is going nowhere if the black or youth vote is discounted. Let's just stick with the outcome of the Dem primary. Any other metric discounts some obvious truths.
Yes! Excellent point. Let's also not forget that Dems, Indies, and moderate Republicans are not very likely to vote someone into office who will bring down Roe v Wade and take us into a war with Iran.
Hillary voters are emotional right now. However, when it comes to actually "pulling the lever" on a anti-choice, war-monger, who will they really vote for? McCain or Obama? This alone makes comparing the primary map to the general election electoral map ludicrous.
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