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Predicting the Jewish Vote in 2012

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Emulating Jeremy Pressman's succinct summary of policy toward Iran, here's a summary of how American Jews feel about President Barack Obama and how they will vote in 2012:

American Jews don't like Obama because they don't feel him in their kishkes.

Jews always vote Democrat.

They don't like him because he said Israeli-Palestinian negotiations should be based on the 1967 lines (with agreed land swaps).

They like him because he refused to let the Palestinian bid for statehood pass the UN Security Council.

They don't like him because of what some administration officials have said about democracy in Israel, and Israel as a source for modern anti-Semitism.

They like him because he's a liberal, and isn't Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, or Romney.

The Orthodox sector of the Jewish population is opposed to liberal social policies, and given its increasing size in the community (due to high birthrate) will soon come to change Jewish voting patterns.

The younger generation of non-Orthodox Jews is increasingly more likely to be distressed with Israeli policy toward the Palestinians, and therefore care less about either kishkes or popular perceptions of lack of support.

Big Jewish donors are moving away from Obama.

Big Jewish donors are sticking with Obama.

Did I miss anything?

First published at Mideast Matrix, January 19, 2012.

  Obama Romney
Obama Romney
332 206
Obama leading
Obama won
Romney leading
Romney won
Popular Vote
33 out of 100 seats are up for election. 51 are needed for a majority.
Democrat leading
Democrat won
Holdover
Republican leading
Republican won
Democrats* Republicans
Current Senate 53 47
Seats gained or lost +2 -2
New Total 55 45
* Includes two independent senators expected to caucus with the Democrats: Angus King (Maine) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.).
All 435 seats are up for election. 218 are needed for a majority.
Democrat leading
Democrat won
Republican leading
Republican won
Democrats Republicans
Seats won 201 234
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