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Brett King

Brett King

Posted: June 15, 2010 11:21 AM

The greatest competitive differentiation a mobile operator can give me today is an always on data plans across devices. Right now I have an iPhone, a Blackberry, an iPad and a Mac and I effectively have to manage different data plans for each device. This sucks. I also maintain a broadband connection at home, although I would abandon that if my wireless data deal were better.

Not only does multi-device connectivity cost me more than I believe it should, but I actually have different plans with different providers for different devices. Some are monthly WiFi deals, others are mobile data deals that actually limit my downloads on a monthly basis, and others are pre-paid deals that I pick up when I am visiting other countries.

My best deal is a great 3.5G solution through CSL in Hong Kong, where I pay around US$50 a month for 21Mbps access speeds and unlimited downloads. Unfortunately when I am working in the United States, UK and Australia on my iPhone or iPad, I can't get a deal even remotely close to this sort of value for money. Firstly, 21Mbps isn't available on AT&T, Telstra or many of the UK providers.  Secondly, unless you are Sprint 4G in the US, there's not one provider who gives an unlimited download deal.

In the US, UK and Australia on my mobile plans I am restricted to downloading between 6 Gb and 10 Gb per month. You might think that sounds like a lot, but I've recently been conducting webinars and Skype teleconferences frequently, and I can chew through 1 Gb of data in a single day. If you exceed the monthly download limit, then that's where you start to singlehandedly make an sizeable direct contribution to the profits of the telco themselves. Normally this manifests itself as overage charges that resemble the budget of a mid-size multinational.

Plans need to be for access, not data

I understand the need and right of an operator to make margin from their business. To some extent with fixed line business I understand the cost of running cable and the fact that as a user of the infrastructure I must pay a penalty. But let's face it, when it's wireless data of the 3G or 4G network, essentially the operator is providing this over cell tower infrastructure that was installed in most cases over 10 years ago, and has just undergone successive upgrades of antenna and firmware to operate at the new frequencies. Unless you are a VNO (Virtual Network Operator) the data is costing you nothing.

In any case, the cost of the infrastructure is a sunk cost, and regardless of how much data I suck down the pipe, I should be paying for the size of the pipe, not for the data because the operator most certainly isn't paying for the data.

To illustrate the great digital divide let's compare the more progressive countries with US, UK and Australia based on 12 month contracts.

The great digital divide
2010-06-15-images-DataPlans35G.png

Pricing plans should get cheaper a lot faster than they do

You've heard of Moore's Law right? Well there's a law for the telecoms sector in respect to bandwidth too. It's called Gilder's law. Gilder's law effectively states that the capacity of a pipe to carry data will increase by at least 3 times Moore's law. Moore's law says that computing capacity/power will increase at 200% per 2 years, so that means bandwidth will increase 600% in carrying capacity every 2 years.

So the cost of data over a 7Mb Next-G modem, if it is $50 today, should be $8 in 2 years time for the same deal. From my experience, this is extremely unlikely.

So what is happening is operators are getting increasingly cheaper pipes, and are maximizing the profit of those pipes over more years than they need to. If South Korea can provide 1 Gbps broadband in the home for the same price as Australia charges for a 2.5Mbps connection, you know something has to give eventually. So what is the great equalizer?

4G - Herein lies the problem

The next generation of mobile standards (4G) allows for much faster download speeds, in fact, when 4G taps out the upper end will allow 1 Gbps download speeds. The problem is that when Australian, UK and US providers move to the next generation of technology, capping downloads with limits just won't make any sense whatsoever. What would you cap it at? 100 Gb?

It gets a little ridiculous. I could download a DVD quality movie every day and still not exceed my download limit. But more importantly, once in place, the whole benefit in 4G is the fact that I become permanently unwired as a consumer.

To understand where we are going means that we will move from one device to another seamlessly. This is already happening with the iPad, iPhone and your HD TV. I am looking for a data provider that allows me access to connectivity as a bundle, not by the Mb.

Conclusion


In a Wired article back in 1993 George Gilder predicted that bandwidth would eventually be free. I believe that bandwidth will eventually be so cheap that it is effectively free, but right now operators need to understand that charging for the pipe, and not the data is how they can both enable business and future revenue.

 
 
 

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08:17 PM on 06/17/2010
And I would be willing to bet that in some warehouse they already have the next 5g, 6g, 7g etc. models just waiting to be rolled out.
Here's an idea--a physical device that acts like a cellphone and can be uploaded with new information so we dont' keep filling our garbage dumps with toxic cellphones from a year ago.
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kendraro
deadhead echelon peacenik mom to Marley the awesom
11:36 PM on 06/16/2010
The bottom line is if the US wants to be competitive in the world it needs to stop pricing half the population out of being technologically up-to-date. My husband is in IT and we have always been in the vangard for our class but we can't keep up. Mainly because of NO JOBS.
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MrVee
02:52 PM on 06/16/2010
I feel ya Brett. And they say talk is cheap huh?

For me, I still cannot understand why texting cost so much. It takes up so little bandwidth you can't even notice but without a text plan, that cost can add up quickly.
Personally, I think we were sold a bill of goods to get many of these new laws passed. I remember when we used to purchase vinyl records and they said, MP3's would bring the costs down but instead, the cost went up and continue to climb. Opening up the phone markets from a single carrier (Bell Telephone, AT&T) to multiple carriers was suppose to increase competition and make costs cheaper. But the opposite seems to have happened and the smaller mom and pop telcos were eventually absorbed by the bigger telcos.

But you are right about the data plans and having to manage them all. But what can we do?
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walteradamson
Cloud, social, mobile things.
10:18 AM on 06/30/2010
Re texting, it costs the carriers next to nothing, their price to you is the problem, something with 98% margin IS your problem but their joy. To kill this cash cow is near impossible because it has a network effect, that is everyone can be texted by relatively few have an iPhone where you could use Whatsapp or Fring or Skype instead, and, of course, no carrier in the world is going to cook the goose that lays the golden egg. Telco execs regard their texting business as being as close to pure profit as you can get - which means an obvious scam and ripoff. But as I said, it's unlikely to change.

Here's the math. Let's say AT&T is charging you twenty cents for 160 bytes of data. If 160 bytes of data costs twenty cents then 1MB (1,048,576 bytes) of data would cost 131,072 cents, or $1,310.72.

In other words, if AT&T charged data downloads at the rate they charge text messages downloading 1MB of data would cost you $1,310.72. If you also consider that often you send just a few characters, let's say half of the full message, then that data rate of $1,310.72 would double to $2,610 per 1MB.
10:22 PM on 06/15/2010
well, you're wrong, Brett King...

i have an "unlimited" MBB plan here in the U.S. from a reseller for $70/month, no 2-yr contract, just a $50 setup and buy the device($99)...and by "unlimited" they apparently mean less than 100 GB/month, which is more than fair to me since the standard is $60/mo and 5 GB cap....i run through about 40-60 GB a month(max speed for me is about 1.2 mbps) and no problems so far, been with this company for 3 years now...i won't mention their name but anyone who does a little bit of research will find it...

also, i wouldn't be happy with the typical $60/5 GB plans either but if your plan is so wonderful, why aren't you acting on it? Buy some spectrum and set up some cell towers...
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MrVee
02:57 PM on 06/16/2010
You won't mention the name??? So your point is to accuse the author that he's wrong and you're right without substantiation? If you refuse to mention the name, it doesn't exist. Period.
Spectrum and cell towers my arse.
02:12 AM on 06/19/2010
Try Millenicom, genius....the author is wrong as are you....
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Brett King
Autho Bank 2.0
04:13 AM on 06/28/2010
Jeff,

Thanks for your spirited response. I stand by my assertions that from a pricing versus pipe perspective the US is woefully behind countries like Japan, Korea, Sweden, etc. The data is unequivocal. IMHO you could not possibly argue the US has a competitive global position on this front.

That being said - I think it has to change fast, or the US will continue to slip behind. But fear not! The US is not the worst in terms of competitive data offerings! I think Zimbabwe is still struggling too!

BK :)