Something Happening Here

Written en route from New Hampshire to Nevada

On Monday afternoon in Manchester, New Hampshire, I called my Executive Producer in New York and said that we needed to pencil in more time than we had allotted for Andrea Mitchell's report on the Clinton Campaign. It needed to be enlarged to include a 48 second soundbite of Hillary Clinton at a roundtable, answering a question about the campaign. She was tired, and she was emotional. She did what any of us would have, and have done at times: she briefly lost control of her emotions. At that very moment, while he was miles away and unaware of it, Barack Obama started to lose control of what we'd been told was a commanding lead in New Hampshire.

I am a son of New England — my father is from Framingham, Mass., my parents met in college in Maine, and over a lifetime of immersion I came to know the psyche well. The core of the older, native New Hampshire population (albeit in a State that is rapidly changing) is still made up of the sons and daughters of the original Puritans. They take civic responsibility seriously, they take care of those who need it and they take pride in "process". In modern political terms, they generally don't like negativity, they reward the downtrodden, they earnestly deliberate over their choice of candidate and they venerate the sturdy among us. In short, they are good people to have in your corner. Hillary Clinton was bloodied in New Hampshire. The people of New Hampshire saw it and didn't like it. They saw assumptions forming and didn't like them. Some felt they were being told what to think: the race was decided, Hillary was desperate and inauthentic. Worst of all — and this was made very clear to me by more than one person: when some in the media quietly doubted that Hillary Clinton's emotions at that roundtable were real (there was quiet snickering about an "acting job" born of an urgent need to seem normal) it was proof to them that cynicism had taken hold of the politics/media realm — and they simply refused to believe that.

Had Bill Clinton not famously coined the title "The Comeback Kid" for himself, his wife would have rightfully claimed it for herself in New Hampshire. That the same State rewarded these two imperfect politicians, in the same way, years apart, is remarkable.

Also remarkable was the apparent transformation of the candidate. The Senator who failed to gain the full support of women voters in Iowa was saved by them in New Hampshire. The woman who gave a victory speech after losing in Iowa — admitted in her New Hampshire victory speech that what she'd really lost...was her own voice.

There will be numerous deconstructions over the days to come. Theories about how African American candidates for office have confounded pollsters (see: Bradley, Wilder, Gant, Jackson) will receive a thorough airing, and deservedly so. We in the media will beat ourselves bloody (and deservedly so) for reaching conclusions before the voters have spoken. A further prediction? Give us a few weeks — we will promptly forget the lessons of this debacle in polling, predictions and primary politics. We will all live to screw up another day, though our performance in New Hampshire will be hard to beat.

It should be noted that virtually everyone got it wrong. The only point of agreement among all the competing campaigns in New Hampshire was that Barack Obama was headed for a double-digit victory, as they told anyone who'd listen. I have an email from a Clinton fundraiser who denounced Hillary as a lost cause and threw his support to Obama...while the polls were still open on Tuesday. A veteran Clinton loyalist spoke of the campaign in New Hampshire in the past tense on the morning of the election, saying the Senator from New York had run smack into "an ideal...a movement," called Barack Obama. There was no defeating an ideal, said this completely defeated politico. Not this year, not in New Hampshire.

In his beautiful, soaring concession speech, Obama mentioned the town of Lebanon for a reason, and listening to him, I knew why. I was with him in Lebanon the day before -- and what we saw there was something of a defining moment in the campaign — it surprised him, his staff members, the Secret Service on board the campaign bus...even the bus driver. We turned the corner toward the event and saw hundreds of people lined up through the streets of the town just to see him, to feel his aura and to later say that they'd done it — they'd been there. There were hundreds more than the venue could hold, and they stood there anyway, and kept coming. Obama, overwhelmed by the overflow crowd, insisted on an outdoor speech before his indoor speech. This much is important, and should be said: any journalist covering any candidate that day, in that town, would have come away as I did after seeing those people, saying something akin to the old song lyric, "something's happening here." A colleague of mine contends Obama got caught up in the history he was making. I don't think that's quite fair. The candidate didn't change his message as much as Iowa changed the way we heard it.

That day, I saw people embrace Barack Obama the way people embrace loved ones returning from foreign battlefields. I saw people with small children, brought along simply so their parents could years later tell them, to the point of predictable annoyance, "you were there...". Losing in New Hampshire may well make Barack Obama a better candidate. While it's the kind of thing that is always said at times like these by those of us whose names have never appeared on a ballot, I think it might just be true in this case.

On the eve of the primary, I attended the last big rally of the Clinton New Hampshire campaign. While large and boisterous enough to distract attention from the decidedly inelegant venue (the indoor tennis courts at the Executive Health and Fitness Center in the shadow of the Manchester airport control tower) it was packed and it was emotional. Our producer spotted tears in Chelsea's eyes. Campaign workers were trying to seem upbeat. A British journalist called the press credential hanging around his neck "a ticket to the last supper." Senator Clinton gave her stump speech, only infused with more emotion: shades of anger, melancholy, frustration and wistfulness. She made a forceful and direct appeal for support, at one point aimed specifically at the women in the audience. Her husband nodded and clapped supportively behind her and shook every hand in the rope line afterwards. I stood several feet away, watching the familiar ballet of incoming hands and thinking of the two years I spent covering his Presidency, and how much has changed since then. He's still in the family retail business, where the basic transaction remains the same.

New Hampshire voters, masters of retail politics and educated consumers all, saw what their Iowa counterparts had done days earlier, and chose not to follow the same path. They instead gave their approval to a former POW, and a former First Lady. Poles apart in many ways, now joined together in the history of this strange process.

As politicians, John McCain and Hillary Clinton have a lot of mutual respect for each other. They have traveled to Iraq together during a dangerous time in the conflict, and they lived to tell about it. Now they can say the same thing about New Hampshire.

Comments

[Tankan]

The Comeback Kid title may belong to someone else before it's all over!

The rooster shouldn't crow before daybreak!

[Kane]

Mr Williams,

During the debate, it was Hillary Clinton who launched a number of criticisms at Barack Obama. And that's OK, it is after all a debate. Obama deflected those criticisms, and he reiterated the importance of not distorting each others records as election day approaches in New Hampshire. John Edwards was visibly chomping at the bit to add his own two cents, obviously wanting to align himself with "change" while painting Clinton as the status quo. That too is OK.

And through the magic of the media, as the NY Times reported and others would follow, "Clinton Attacked by Obama and Edwards". That is not OK.

Such headlines are not only false and misleading, but they suggest that Obama and Edwards were working together against Clinton. This played to the advantage of Clinton. Not only did it portray Clinton as the victim, but it gave her team permission to go negative and go on the attack. Which they did. In one example, as Keith Olbermann reported, Hillary's Bush-like obsurdities in playing the fear card; using the attacks and deaths of others abroad as a way of selling her own campaign and belittling others.

As I'm sure you know, it's no coincidence that the 48 second soundbite of the "emotional" moment is 48 seconds and no more. Because if the soundbite is played longer than 48 seconds, it no longer fits the media narrative.

You claim that Hillary Clinton was answering a question about the campaign when she had her emotional moment. It comes as no surprise that you fail to record what that question was. The question was,

"I know it’s hard to get out of the house and get ready, who does your hair?”

But go to the various news outlets, and they have magically edited out the question. But still, they found enough time to leave in the negative remarks Clinton managed to get off during her "real" moment.

[littleblackcat]

Personally, I think it is good for both candidates to have "won one and lost one" because it seems to me way too early to write off anyone. I am angry and disappointed that people like Richardson and Kucinich got so little "air time" when these men have excellent brains and vast experience. Obama didn't lose by any "crushing defeat" but by 3 percentage points. For anyone to completely written HRC off because she didn't win in Iowa is silly. There is still too much to discuss, too many things can still go right or wrong for any candidate. Let's ALL get our heads out of our collective butts and concentrate on the really important things. Making ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN THAT THE VOTES ARE ACCURATE AND CAN BE VERIFIED comes to mind as the most pressing need the American people have. Getting rid of the current batch of criminals and seeing to it that they are held accountable for their crimes is next. The nation CAN NOT survive with another repu in office. Eight more years of this horrific mess?? Are you CRAZY??? Even four years more is 1,461 days too many.

[hu.man]

"Had Bill Clinton not famously coined the title "The Comeback Kid" for himself, his wife would have rightfully claimed it for herself in New Hampshire. That the same State rewarded these two imperfect politicians, in the same way, years apart, is remarkable."

Imperfect politicians? Did you come up with that on your own BW? Nice. Now tell me who is the perfect politician, I would like to vote for him.

[JFaye]

On Saturday evening, during the Democratic portion of the debates airing on ABC, the crude question asked of Senator Clinton regarding people liking her began the turnaround towards a sympathy vote. Initially, I'd plan to support Hillary ... later deciding perhaps Senator Obama represented the kind of "cleansing" from this cyclic and terribly long era of Bush/Clinton/Bush and bipartisan politics I NEED A BREAK FROM.

What began during the debates when Hillary feelings were "hurt", women began to relate to her on a personal level. Later, her emotional melt-down stirred those emotions. What cemented them however, was the unnecessary ridicule from media pundits and John Edwards. Unfortunately, Senator Obama caught the bullet because over the next 36 hours or so, Hillary and Chelsea poured coffee; Hillary took advantage of morning news programs for nice talk and all the while her husband, Bill Clinton pounded the drums against Barack Obama.

I don't discount race, but there was a more powerful dynamic at play here... with her crying game.

The question now becomes which President Clinton do we get if Hillary is overwhelmed by the task? Remember, she was there and with her experience fell right behind Bush as his fear and scare rhetoric pushed the United States into a preemptive war in Iraq. Even though she had security clearance to review classified documents herself to more thoroughly investigate every aspect of this WAR (serious and hard stuff here), she chose not to.

Like any woman, I too understand the power of tears and the need to appear vulnerable in a male dominated setting: I understand the risk as well for how it diminishes the importance of your message.

So Hillary Clinton found her voice in New Hampshire. Yes, Bill Clinton...

[jdunn1973]

I don't really understand why it is unfair of Hilary to attack Obama or Edwards. The vitriol waged against Hil is on par with criticism of the current administra­tion(which is doing a terrible job in office, Hilary isn't) . Seems no other candidate is getting splashed by the same venom. If she calls it sexist, then she is "crying" and using "feminine tricks"(WTF?) , if she attacks, her campaign is floundering and grasping. What is she supposed to do? It's also worth noting Obama running on a "change" campaign... I mean who the hell isn't? Nobody is running on a "keeping up with the Bush's strategy", even within the Republican party. Obama and Hilary's voting record are 90 percent the same. He didn't vote for the Iraq war, yay, let's move on. . That doesn't make him qualified to be president. They are all making promises of change and prosperity. How stupid are we that we fall for it every fucking time. Let's remember, it also has to pass the house and senate, there is no magical snapping of fingers. Do we remember the promise and hope we had for Nancy Pelosi and the democratic-led congress?
Everyone getting all excited and doing nothing just makes us look like idiots. Real tears, faux tears, I could care less, I like a staunch woman. But that's just me.

[VSamuels]

At some point the so-called MSM needs to ask Bill Clinton if he sees Hillary as this great person who is so capable of being a great president, why has he been a serial philander?
It would seem that the media is obligated to its viewers to confront the hypocrisy of the Clintons and delve into why he seems so comfortable in publicly praising her traits, then sneaking around on her in private.

Lastly, Hillary should be asked what was behind her motivation to be the lead person in dealing with women who were accusing her husband of sexual harrassment. What exactly is the difference in her promoting the 'cause' of women then putting the screws to women in Arkansas and beyond who screamed for justice?

Watching the Clintons on stage is akin to seeing an oncoming train wreck and being unable to do anything about it.

[ChristopherLib]

For a long time to come I think candidates coming into election day as underdogs will point to January 8th, 2008, as a date to site that stunning upsets can happen. I think it's a good day for American Democracy if it causes us to put less stock in polls.

On the other hand polls still screwed up. Was it all a late surge or was something else going on? Did young people see Obama way up and decide to stay home and sit on the couch and eat Patato chips? Or dare I say did the Bradley Effect come in play? I really doubt the latter, but we need answers. Polls do effect how certain people turnout on election day, and that's not going to change. Hopefuly people will put less stock in polls after this, but so long as they're around they'll be a factor.

[satyriasis]

It appears I was the only one who had faith in Mrs Clinton. I even argued with my friends about it. I told them Obama's victory was overvalued, the contest was far from settled, and the bubble might just burst both on Obama and the media. I was right. I guess I should be expecting a pundit contract from NBC in the future?

[UtahLiberal435]

I don't think Hillary 'came back' at all. I think she was always the narrow front-runner, and that the Iowa caucuses were a fluke due to the University of Iowa students taking an (admirable) interest in the intense caucus process...because Obama has spoken there several times.

Personally, I find all the reaching for theories, most of it based on ludicrous sound-bite journalism like Hillary Clinton "crying", to be a pathetic pseudo-journalist's attempt to provide deadline-driven answers before you have any facts. It's the classic journo line "we need a story,"... "but there's a deadline tonight."

It's pud pulling, and filling page space with air, not reportage.

[kainen]

brian, i hope you and your media fraternity dont understimate the bradley effect...as much as we like to believe we live in more enlightened times, obama has the odds stacked against him. i for one, i'm an obama supporter and will be voting for him the 1st chance i get... but i know a lot of other white ppl who love obama too and make it known publicly. but i also know that when it comes to casting their ballot, they somehow get "cold feet"... when it comes to race relations, we still have a long way to go as a society.

[bluesky49876]

Had Bill Clinton not famously coined the title "The Comeback Kid" for himself, his wife would have rightfully claimed it for herself in New Hampshire. That the same State rewarded these two imperfect politicians, in the same way, years apart, is remarkable."

Brian, who do you consider to be a perfect politician?

[Oldtimer]

Mr. Williams,
You (and the rest of the media) are missing the real story. The change wing of the Democratic party is split between Obama and Edwards. Edwards more than anyone else would like to see Hillary lose. The ironic thing is the longer he stays in the race the beteer the
chances that Hillary wins even though the majority of Democrats and independents voted
for someone else. This is the story.
Blare it from the tallest transmitter NBC
has Brian.

[Tortillas]

Don't blame the pundit, it's what they do! We're the suckers here, they blab-on, we eat it up.

Everyone wants to say they called the whole race after a couple of tiny Primaries. Pundits can be so tiresome. Lighten up buttercup!

Re-direct your frustrations with politics by engaging Americas true grass-roots candidates. While the media tries to figure out why their speculation and guess-work doesn't yield results, Arizona is quietly making a bold political statement.

Which candidate cut a hole in the America flag while illegal aliens cross our border in the background?

Which candidate wears an eye-patch like a pirate?

And, did you know there are two women in Arizona's Primary ballot?

http://projectwhitehouse.wordpress.com/

[radmul]

If this moron wants to regale us with the wonders of New England politics why doesn't he look at some facts. The blockheads of the granite state get it wrong when it counts just like the hicks in Iowa. The last democrat to actualy win lost in NH and did not even compete in Iowa. And I must have been out of the country for the McCain presidency, W was another loser. The profit centered media needs to cut down the number of camps they need to cover but maintain the ad spending through the Feb 5 high end markets. Brian Williams is a cliche spouting hack he even missed the appropriate line from the song, something may indeed be happening but, "what it is ain't exactly clear".