Pandering vs. Presidential

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Posted May 7, 2008 | 01:28 AM (EST)



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Whether your heart lies with Clinton or Obama your head has to know tonight was a night for the junior senator from Illinois. Tonight, Monday Night Football's Dandy Don Meredith returned for a one night performance: "Turn out the lights, the party's over, they all say good things must end."

After enduring the worst period of his presidential campaign, Obama gave uncommitted superdelegates who have been sitting on the fence at least a strong reason to inch toward his direction.

By increasing his delegate and popular vote lead, tomorrow morning brings with it a pressure on Clinton to give some consideration for what is best for the Democratic Party beyond making her nom du famille synonymous with the donkey.

She can pledge to the Indiana faithful to press on, but the numbers don't lie. Though she has vowed to take her campaign to West Virginia and Kentucky, the body language of Clinton, her husband, and daughter Chelsea suggests tonight was a campaign eulogy.

The epitaph on the Indiana and North Carolina primaries could very simply read: "Pandering versus Presidential."

The Jeremiah Wright fiasco clearly knocked Obama off of his white charger of change. But its quite possible Clinton herself came to his rescue by pandering to the public.

Seizing on astronomical gas prices that have caused pain for many Americans, she offered a policy that no reputable economist in the country could support. Moreover, it was a policy that had no feasible way of passing this summer. She did not have the votes in Congress nor a president waiting to sign it. So it was nothing more than rhetorical pandering of the highest order.

Obama took the principled stand by opposing it. It was a substantive issue, offering the road less traveled. It was manna from heaven. Obama was presented with an opportunity to talk about something other than Jeremiah Wright, look presidential, while giving the American people a glance at his leadership style.

Maybe we just became privy to the change that has been promised throughout his campaign -- to disagree with your opponent's ideas while always affirming their humanity.

Meanwhile, Clinton surrogates, in particular James Carville, have reminded many that the win-at-all-cost style, even if it includes crass invectives toward a member of your own party and most likely the presidential nominee, is not beyond the pale.

But other than a farewell tour through West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and Montana, the race is over. There is no longer any rationale to hammer Obama with negative ads that ultimately benefit McCain.

The person most likely happiest about tonight's outcome is Democratic Party chair, Howard Dean. The results from Indiana and North Carolina primaries lessen the importance of Michigan and Florida thereby making a compromise more likely and less acrimonious.

But it's time for primary redemption within the Democratic Party -- to put aside intramural rivalries in order to prepare for the major intercollegiate event in the fall.

It is not the time for Obama supporters put on the suit of arrogance, demanding Clinton's immediate withdrawal. Magnanimity is as important for the winner, if not more so, as it is for the loser.

An "October surprise" in May notwithstanding, we now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be, but it is still a long way from November. Tonight, in the words of Winston Churchill, "is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Indiana and North Carolina primary results


 
 

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Hillary will get out when she gets out. It's her decision, as it should be. I am for stopping the negative campaigning. How you end is just as important as how you begin. Now that being said, it's time to take on John McCain because I for one am not even trying to have 4 more years in Iraq for one thing!

I think Hillary is still an important part of the Democratic Party. We don't have to agree on everything. The only thing we must agree on is stopping the Republicans in November!

Democrats 08!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:53 AM on 05/08/2008

I think the election last night was reflection more of where the American people are than it was of the candidates. Before the Wright incident Obama was riding high he was seen as perfect unstoppable almost not human in a good way what the Wright incident did was that it flawed him humanized him. The speech in Philadelphia got the country to look at itself. Other things like the bitter comment further knocked him off the pedestal. His campaign was slowly morphing into negativity like the Clinton campaign. He was playing on Hilary's turf and PA turned out badly for him. After PA he tried to get his focus back. When he oppose the gas tax idea Hlary felt sure this was the perfect opportunity to highlight the difference between them. But what it did was give Obama the opportunity to provide leadership to be the kind of leader he talked about not telling them what they wanted to hear but what they needed to hear. Since he could have easily gone a long with the gas tax but chose not to it brought those who might be hesitant to trusting him ala the Wright and bitter comment back into the fold. THey can trust him again because here is a lithmus test and he passed.

Carol

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:13 PM on 05/07/2008

affirming their humanity. i guess you never saw the ads that called her a liar; or the suggestions that both clintons were racists and playing the race card, when in fact it went the other way; or the surrogate who likened bill clinton to maccarthy, while obama stood there listening to him; or the one who brought up the blue dress.

it must be nice to be able to look at things and ignore the facts.

hillary went at his policies. he went at her.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:48 AM on 05/08/2008

"Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening"

Gee, I can't IMAGINE why anyone thinks she's playing the race card...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:21 PM on 05/08/2008

Which policies was she attacking? His church going policy? His policy of using bitter to describe frustrated people?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:44 AM on 05/08/2008

You are dillusional. You, yourself, are ignoring what really took place.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:20 AM on 05/08/2008

It is not even a matter of votes any longer. Senator Obama stands steadfast to a real program of change and Senator Clinton tried every recipe in the book, went three times around the block and it was still not enough. The reason is the American people. We are fed up with piece-meal answers pre-cooked for the enjoyment of the audience and poisoned for those who are not in the room.

Put the candidates side by side and you can see the difference. A man who has a sound world view developed over time and by solving problems vs. a woman who had to play the numbers game so long that everything looks like a triangulation to her. An athletic individual with a steady voice, an adult demeanor and a natural ability to command the masses and grab the attention of his audience vs. a person who is not comfortable with her own creation of herself and who has to expend energy on staying on script.

It was never a fair fight. It was never a fight Senator Clinton should have taken up. One can not fight personified ideas, not even with a living legend for a husband.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:11 PM on 05/07/2008

For the hell of it let's see how much she needs if we first include Florida and then Florida and

Michigan.

First, the numbers:
Florida - Total of 217 pledged delegates

Florida result:
Clinton 857208 50% 108 pledged
Obama 569041 33% 71 pledged

NET Delegates for Clinton: 37


Remember, Obama is ahead 710,000 in popular vote, and even including Florida, he is still ahead by 425,000. Also, Obama would still be ahead in pledged delegates by 98. Therefore, including those delegates she claims to have won in Florida, she would still have to get 72.5% of the rest of the pledged delegates.

Now with Michigan

The Numbers:

Michigan - Total of 128 pledged delegates

Michigan Primary
Clinton 328151 55% 70 pledged
Obama 237762 40% 58 pledged
NET Delegates for Hillary: 12

Giving Hillary her votes and giving Obama the "Uncommitted," Obama would still be ahead by 335,000 in the popular vote and would still be ahead in the pledged delegates by 86. This would mean that Hillary EVEN COUNTING MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA would have to win almost 70% of the remaining pledged delegates.

Of course if she gets more superdelegates it eases the odds listed above, but if we assume the rest of the contests go 50/50 for pledged delegates, with 270 superdelegates remaining, she would need to get 75% to reach Obama. If you do the math right, her odds are insurmountable!!!

If you republish this, let me know at marsx@ca.rr.com.


© 2008 Marsten

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:30 AM on 05/07/2008

The real deadly thing is that even if you don't give Obama the undecided votes and delegates from Michigan he is still winning both the popular vote by 97,000 votes and 28 pledged delegates.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:10 PM on 05/07/2008

Okay everyone let's do the math right. There are 217 pledged delegates. Obama is ahead after tonight by approximately 150 pledged delegates. Therefore, Hillary needs to win 81% of the rest of the primaries to tie Obama in pledged delegates. This math assumes Hillary is ahead in superdelegates by 15.

I know you hate math, but let's get it right if we're going to show numbers. Armed with the right numbers, maybe you can show Hillary supporters how impossible it is for her to catch up. For some reason, no one has been giving the right math, maybe because they're lousy at math or maybe they want this horserace to continue or maybe they want Hillary. But here's how it's calculated:

Here's how you calculate that she needs 81% to catch Obama. First, there are 217 pledged delegates left. Obama is ahead by 150 pledged delegates. Hillary is ahead by 15 superdelegates. Therefore we reduce Obama's lead to 135 delegates. Now for the calculations:

Hillary must win 135 delegates PLUS 50% of those delegates left, i.e., she must not only win 135 delegates to catch up but 50% of those remaining when you deduct 135 from the 217 total. Therefore she must win 135 plus 50% of (217-135). SHE MUST WIN135+41 delegates, which is 176. 176 is 81% of 217. Do you get it now?

Will Continue in next post with Michigan:


If you republish this, let me know at marsx@ca.rr.com.


© 2008 Marsten

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:26 AM on 05/07/2008

Any idea what this "October Surprise" is??....

I think Obama supporters wil embrace HRC supporters....no doubt about that...we're Democrats first....but I hope she concedes sincerely....I still cringe on the emotional outrage she has caused us by her behaviour......but alas unity is more important than revenge or hate....that's what Obama's campaign has been about...and that's what drives us supporters....the message.....so ...if Barack is ok with it...we shld be too....cheers...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:23 AM on 05/07/2008




Look Hillary supporters,

It's been nice really. Listening to your "he can't win" math, without you divulging the basis to your calculations, the fact that Barack is black.

You couldn't just come out and say it, we understand. You're supposed to be the good guys. And you're not really racists, you're just pragmatists who seen the racism still prevalent in this country.

But you didn't count on one thing. Young people aren't as racist as you are. They're not hung up on race, and you should on some level celebrate that revelation, instead of counting on further trying to dangle the black rubber spider before the eyes of the electorate. We're not scared of a black man.

Because we've seen what a white man has done to this country. And how a white woman has emulated similar political tactics that got him elected. And frankly Mr. Obama presents the only viable solution.

So spin tonight as much as you like, and you keep fighting the good fight. Here's a little song to keep you company while the boat's still above water. But make no mistake, this dance is about to come to an end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfIBYEkAp0A

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:57 AM on 05/07/2008

W as his buddies like to call him has single handedly destroyed the notion of white supremecy in just under 8 years, we should thank him for that.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:05 AM on 05/08/2008

Hillary needs to stop borrowing and burning money on a lost cause, especially when she will have to return to us for help to retire the debt. Stop throwing good money after a lost cause. It is over. Go home now.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:10 AM on 05/07/2008

I believe you stole your close from Keith Olberman who used the same quote in his broadcast tonight.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:49 AM on 05/07/2008

The MSNBC talking heads said it would even be a good thing if she kept up through W VA and KY because he can't win them and it would give her a positive send off and save face for him -- rather than lose to someone no longer in the race.

So long as the tone is no longer negative, there can be mending. I think Obama's followers will take his lead. It's his decency that has drawn so many in the first place. If his is the way presidential politics CAN be played out, it's an example for the whole country -- and both parties, too. Very refreshing.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:21 AM on 05/07/2008

To be sure.........................

I do not belong to an organized political party, I AM A DEMOCRAT !!

Obama '08

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:28 AM on 05/07/2008

I'm from the democratic wing of the democratic party.
Go Barack!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:20 AM on 05/08/2008

Byron, you say,

"She now needs to win at least 63 percent of the remaining vote to overtake Obama's pledge delegate lead".

While many of your posts are informational, you should reference any numbers you use.
Your percentages are off. Check again, and if I'm wrong, sucks to be me.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:36 AM on 05/07/2008


I was going to comment that his "Hillary's other option" was wrong.
By my math, she would need to do both, not one or the other, and she'd still come up short.

But then, when I heard the election results I dropped my abacus and beads went everywhere, so I can't back up my math either.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:08 AM on 05/07/2008

I think you are correct about this. After NC and IN, it would seem that the percentage wins needed in the remaining contests, in which a combined 217 pledged delegates are at stake, is much higher than 63%, probably closer to 75% now.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:00 AM on 05/07/2008
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