Voter Beware: Of Ralph Nader

The game of "What If?" history is almost always a useless, speculative exercise - and always definitive on the question of Ralph Nader in the presidential election of 2000, and the history of the world thereafter.

What if Nader hadn't gotten a passel of votes in Florida? Al Gore would have been elected President - there would have been no need for a Florida recount, among other things; and the world would have been a very different place than it is today.

Now, in 2008, Nader's presidential candidacy looms again as a potential--though unlikely-- threat to the election of a Democratic president if there is an unexpectedly close finish. (For the record: Repubican honchos with whom I have spoken in the last twenty-four hours see virtually no way that McCain will win; Karl Rove, who spoke with one of them, is reported to share this view privately.)

Perhaps, as conventional wisdom has it, Barack Obama will win comfortably; perhaps John McCain - in an increasingly longshot scenario - will claw his way to victory, and in such a way that Nader's candidacy will not figure.

But bring about a close election in a number of states - especially Ohio and Missouri, where polls show Nader winning about 2 and 4 per cent, respectively - and it is just possible to see how Nader, with his messianic vanity, and destructive urges that are best explained by God or psychiatry, can again determine the future of America.

From almost any non-Republican perspective - except nihilism - this is a travesty. In 2000, many of Nader's votes came indeed from young nihilists (and Old Leftists, who should have known better) who imbibed his bunkum that there was no difference between the two parties or their two candidates. And he has been preaching the same nonsense today, with particular fervor on college campuses.

It is even possible to foresee a way in which--if the national electoral result is unexpectedly tight on Tuesday-- the student population of Ohio State University (60,000) could, if Nader attracts enough support on campus and the final vote in Ohio is as close as Florida was in 2000, determine the outcome of the 2008 presidential election. (Memo to Ohio State students: share this message with your friends.)

In an Ohio News Organization poll in late September, among those making less than $20,000 a year, Nader was at 11 percent. Among independents, he was at 10%. And for those aged 18 to 29 in central Ohio, he was at 7 percent.

There are two other states, especially, where Nader could influence the election outcome if McCain were to surge towards the finish: Colorado and Missouri, more likely the latter. I was on the campus of Washington University in St. Louis ten days ago, and sentiment for Nader was hardly dormant. Nader sent out a mass mailing in the state last week, and according to the latest CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll, he is at 4 percent in Missouri, where McCain and Obama are seen to be running neck and neck: 48.3 to 47.7 per cent, in McCain's favor, according to the latest CNN average.

Sensible Democrats might expect by now that an influential group of former Nader disciples who have known the man for 35 or 40 years --dating to the days when he made a genuine contribution to the national weal as an advocate for consumers and political reform-- would have taken some kind of collective action to warn young people, particularly, that this hero of another age has become the dangerous (and disingenuous) cult of his own personality--unhinged politically, at the very least, and a threat to the very causes that put him in the map. (None of which is to say that there haven't been in the American past--and may be again--periods when third-party movements deserve to succeed and persevere. )

But meaningful preventative early-warning about Nader from those who know him best didn't happen in 2000 and--even more remarkably, given the lessons of 2000 and the choices of 2008--it hasn't happened in this election. Nader continued to wage an under-the-radar (i.e. national media) campaign with enough money and infrastructure, free local television and campus rallies to get his message across where it can do the most damage to the Democratic ticket - in those states where the voting may be extremely close between Obama and McCain: places where economic dislocation is most dire, and a mix of nostalgic seniors and disaffected young people could make a difference in the electoral count.

Nader's supporters, when questioned by pollsters, indicate he may be pulling almost equally from both McCain and Obama, though I'd bet otherwise. Some polls show Nader is at 3 percent nationally; the latest Real Clear Politics average gives him 2.3 per cent of the total vote, and Bob Barr the right-wing former Republican running on the Libertarian ticket, about 1 cent. Meanwhile, most of the polls show Nader taking two votes from Obama for every one that Barr might get from McCain. Almost all the math shows the net effect of Barr and Nader's candidacies hurting Obama disproportionately.

Ralph Nader's role in the political dynamic of real-existing America ceased long ago to be positive, as the values he once espoused became, apparently, overwhelmed or subverted by personal fantasies and resentments about which we can only speculate, but which seem to manifest themselves as a relentless urge for fame and ruinous chaos: See Florida, 2000, and his decision--after that horror--to attempt a repeat performance.

The media, which has endlessly discussed The Bradley Effect, ought to be taking note. For the Democratic Party, the motivation in confronting Nader in key states is obvious, even in the final hours of the campaign. For the press, it ought to be a story, no matter how unlikely the possibility of the Nader Effect becoming--again--historic.

Comments

[CokeOrPepsi2008]

"Nader, with his messianic vanity, and destructive urges that are best explained by God or psychiatry, can again determine the future of America." - Carl Bernstein 3 Nov 2008

OMG - Carl, this the funniest thing I've read this season! Keep up the comedy!!

So Ralph's an amalgam of Obama ("messianic") and McCain (urges - rhymes with "surges") LOL!!

Nader/Gonzalez 2008!!

[CokeOrPepsi2008]

Bernstein's career peaked some decades ago, with nothing to show for it since Watergate (rent the movie - if you still have a VHS player).

He's a second fiddle power-panderer to the Maestro Bob Woodward, and a tired scribe for right-wing DLC Dems like Hillary Clinton.

Bernstein has gone on to greater fame by dating Bianca Jagger, Martha Stewart and Elizabeth Taylor some years ago. Alas, Ralph is unattached, active politically and happy - clearly a sign of something evil.

Isn't it odd that Bernstein misses that fact that it is his Obama that blew away the post-Watergate public financing framework, and now berates one of the many people (Nader) that helped bring it about and supported it for decades?

Carl, this may be a shock in 2008, but as a Nader voter and supporter, I do have a right to get him on the ballot and vote as I damn well please.

Best of luck - May Obama grant you many interviews that will be published and circle the bowl forever in the WaPo blogosphere.

[ThinkForYourself2]

Bernstein is right! That maniac Nader is always looking out for numero uno. Like when he was fighting for air bags, clean air or the Freedom of Information Act. That egotistical, son of a bitch, what does he think he is a freakin' messiah? The nerve of that guy to come out and try and make a difference against our wonderful two-party system of government that makes America, ....America. Bernstein is absolutely right. Let's stop these dissenting political hopefuls right now. After Nader, let's go after Kucinich, then Ron Paul and then Bernie Sanders just for good measure. Those guys just cause way too many problems that it's become just that much more difficult for our other politicians to get any of their lobbyist's legislation through. What we need is full cooperation and full agreement among all the members of our ruling elite. Until that happens, we can be assured that inconvenient things like civil and human rights will still be possible and not a thing of our shameful past. So I'm with Bernstein and I say DOWN with mentally-ill, messianic Nader! DOWN with dissenting politicians and their supporters! DOWN with the idealists who don't agree with the two-party system! DOWN with a government by and for the people! DOWN with real change!

[SolarPowerGuy]

A slight tangent... I've been giving this situation a little thought. Here's how the Democrats can win back serious consideration from this sixteen-year Green Party voter (I'm voting for McKinney, by the way):

Upon taking office, Barack Obama should re-nominate Lani Guinier for Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights. It is my understanding that, in his capacity as a law professor, Mr. Obama has used her articles in his classroom. These articles discuss cumulative voting, multi-member voting districts, and other proportion­al-represe­ntation voting remedies

The Democratic Congress has to support her this time. They must ADDRESS and REFUTE the Republican race-baiting remarks that cost her the job back in 1993.

Guinier's initiatives would open the door to sharing power with Greens, Peace and Freedom, independent voters, etc. Yes, Libertarians and American Independent Party voters would gain representation, too. But right now, all we've got sitting at the Big Table is two wings of the Business Party, one slightly more socially liberal than the other. This is a democracy, after all -- we're supposed to be getting representation in exchange for our taxation.

Can Democrats deliver Lani Guinier? I could respect that.

[billstewart]

In 2000, Al Gore failed to steal enough votes from Ralph Nader and the Greens to overcome the votes Bush's friends stole by voter fraud in Florida. And it was too bad - Al's not perfect, and was about my third or fourth choice, but he was certainly far better than Bush. In 1984, I thought it was important enough to stop Reagan that I held my nose and voted for Walter Mondale instead of third-party, so I can understand Greens being willing to vote Democrat for tactical reasons, but the Democrats need to come up with better reasons to vote for them other than "We're Not As Bad As The Republicans".

I'm a Libertarian, and I'm in California where Obama's going to win safely, so I don't need to vote for him just to stop McCain. (Though I might be convinced to vote for Nader - Bob Barr's one of the ex-Republican carpetbaggers who've moved into the Libertarian Party over the past few years when it was obvious that the Republican party didn't want libertarian-leaning conservatives, just radical rightwingers. Barr's one of the strongest advocates in the country of protecting privacy from George Bush's wiretap-everybody activism, but he really doesn't get the concepts of personal and economic liberty. Nader's economics are clueless leftism (:-), but he's solid on the War, civil liberties, ending the drug war, and a lot of other critical issues.)

[RedWhiteandBrooklyn]

"In 2000, Al Gore failed to steal enough votes from Ralph Nader and the Greens to overcome the votes Bush's friends stole by voter fraud in Florida."

Paranoid, much?

[ThinkForYourself2]

In the 2004 presidential election there were 57,000 incidents logged with Congress regarding voting machine malfunctions, voter suppression and irregularities mostly favoring Bush and hurting Kerry. Also, there were huge differences between exit poll numbers and final tallies in key battleground states. This took me 20 seconds to find this info on the net so anyone who claims to have done their research is being disingenuous.

http://www.truthinvoting.org/D30PressRelease.htm

[actcochise]

Carl Bernstein - shame on you for attacking the fundamentals of Democracy, and for believing that Democrats should attain the power even at the cost of dis-respecting the nature of a Democracy. It seems like some Democrats, like yourself, only like democracy when it favors you. That's precisely what's wrong with the Republicans, but it's disheartening to also find that in some (few) Democrats.

Don't you get it that if the Democrats want Nader's constituency, then they have to go after what moves that constituency? Politics is not a zero-sum game; and USA desperately need more political parties and opinions than the ones presented by the Republicans and Democrats. The "broken system in Washington" is the constant bickering of the 2 parties over power, and the lack of other parties to weigh in to make both parties more responsible and less partisan in their behavior.

It is not the responsibility of Nader to secure that the Democrats win their elections. Nor is it his "fault" when they don't. The reason the Democrats fail to win elections previously is because they fail to get enough votes, aside from being cheated by Supreme court justices - which certainly is also not Nader's fault.

Obama doesn't need your lack of respect for Democracy to win this election, and I believe that the Nader constituency will in large part flock to Obama. It's exactly his respect for laws, for democracy, for the people and his decency that makes him such an exciting candidate.

[DorkimusMaximus]

So, pointing out the flaws of Barack Obama and John McCain as major party candidates is okay.

But pointing out the flaws of Ralph Nader as a third party candidate is not?

Love the double standard being set.

[bdaved]

"Ralph Nader, though, should be forbidden from running. He's determined to destroy our democracy from the inside out for no other reason than to satiate his ego." --Dorkimus Maximus, 11/03/2008
That's taking it a bit beyond pointing out Mr. Nader's flaws as a third-party candidate. A lot of energy is wasted attacking Mr. Nader that could be used for positive purposes. You think Mr. Nader is wrong, fine. Say so, vote your conscience, have a ball. I'm not voting for him either. The man I'm voting for said we need to learn to disagree without being disagreeable. Good people are voting all kinds of ways in this election, for all kinds of reasons. Next January somebody's going to have to be president for all of them, not just the ones who agreed with him.

[RedWhiteandBrooklyn]

"Nader's constituency"??? Why is itthat the guys who claim to be part of Nutjob's "Constituency" always write such long and logically-flawed rants? Off your meds? And please, "there wouldabsolutely be no difference between a George W Bush presidency and an Al Gore presidency." THAT is not something only a crazy person would say?

[MatoSka]

If a tax cut for the middle class, that amounts to $500-$1000 a year for individual taxpayers, can pass in the election debate as a significant victory for poor and working people, it is only because there is no one else on the stage saying what needs to be said. If our media warns us about hearing any other voices than ones with the official stamp of approval, we have already discounted viable alternatives to address global warming and ending corporate control of government.

[demigod]

The Nader people are like the Pro-Lifers, you cannot talk to them, you cannot change their minds, you can only write them off. They are convinced they are on a mighty quest, so they are gone. They would rather the nation writhe under the yoke of bad government so they can say they were right. They will never acknowledge that George W. Bush became President because of Ralph Nader, and because of them. But he did.

[joebhed]

just because you said so.

[RedWhiteandBrooklyn]

No... because of somethings called "math" and "logic" which are anathema to the magical thinking of Naderites.

[SolarPowerGuy]

"They will never acknowledge that George W. Bush became President because of Ralph Nader, and because of them. But he did."

I have read at least five posts in this thread that make this assertion. How would you like to back that up with some actual reasoning?

Go on, I'm waiting.

[stevebelou]

I voted for Nader in 2000. Imagine what the world would be like today if he won? I live in SW Ohio - the belly of the beast - and I will be voting for Nader / Gonzalez tomorrow. The man speaks 5 languages, believes in diplomacy and discourse before the bullet, warned congress years ago on how the speculative derivatives market would tank the economy, and has fresh ideas to restore this country to a humane and great place to be a part of. I expect Nader to pull at least 5 percent tomorrow in Ohio. It is a crime that he and Matt Gonzalez were locked out of the debates.

[joebhed]

thank you, steve.
me too.
nihilists united for peace and justice.

[RedWhiteandBrooklyn]

"I voted for Nader in 2000. Imagine what the world would be like today if he won?"

Try this:

"I voted for Gore in 2000. Imagine what the world would be like today if he won?"
Mine was actually possible. Yours chased unicorns.

[SolarPowerGuy]

"I voted for Gore in 2000. Imagine what the world would be like today if he won?"

Almost exactly the same.

[betterthannader]

Ending slavery, women's right to vote, labor movements all rose from third party candidates and their supporters having a breaking point and forcing major parties to take on the important issues. What do they have to do to lose YOUR vote?

We need to start paying more attention to Ralph Nader. He's been warning us about the things that caused this economic crisis for decades and that's documented quite well. He also has solutions for the crisis now, but instead of listening to Nader we keep putting the arsonists in charge of the fire station.

When we're stuck in wars that have killed over 1.5 million innocent people, the economy is in shambles, and the Constitution is being gutted--well, I take that as a sign that it's way past time we need to draw a line and stop supporting either of the parties that got us into such a mess!

[escobar]

Nader should run for Congress.
He reminds me of a sports expert watching a football game from a bar stool. Someone who never went to the field or even picked up a ball himself. He thinks he can be QB at the Superbowl because he can see the mistakes others make.
It is odd people give him credit for all sorts of legislation when he never had a vote to cast.
Then, I want credit too. I agree with all the laws they give him credit for..why not me?
Once drunk enough, the man at the bar stool would claim to have kicked a winning field goal because he was in favor of the move as he watched someone do it.
I wish he would run for office, but to vote for him as President is a waste.
People feel they are making a statement with their protest vote?
Yes, in their own mind.
Nobody is listening.
He is just a grandstander.
He may well be correct but he is not trying to be effective.

[joebhed]

Yours is the lamest of the 578 comments thus far.

[RedWhiteandBrooklyn]

Yours is the most logical of the arguments made here so far. Nader has never "suited up", so it's easy for him to claim that he would have done better.

[SolarPowerGuy]

Yeah, Nader should run for Congress. It's worked out SO well for Dennis Kucinich and Russ Feingold.

[CokeOrPepsi2008]

Never "suited up" - like George W. Bush or Bubba Clinton? Or Joe "Credit Cards" Biden? Or Gore's lousy VP Lieberman? Or Fred Thompson? Wow - you're right - he's not like those respectable, credible guys.

[BaltoAman]

I completely disagree.

Voting third-party is the ONLY way to restore the republic. The Republocrats have successfully jacked the people's power. Both parties are corrupt beyond belief. Vote the bums out!!!!

Only then will your vote really count.

[escobar]

I don't disagree with you but:
Here is how it works.
The GOP enjoyed a majority in Congress so they got put their people in charge of all the committees where a bill or idea is first presented.
They lost that .
The head of the various comittiees are now Democrats. Their ideas will no longer be automatically dumped as they were for decades. Ideas go to a small vote. Some who vote will be Republican or whoever else may hold a seat. That, often results in attachments and compromise to get the essence of the idea to carry. All before Congress even sees the proposal.
The majority Party decides what will be considered.
A third party? Like Bernie Sanders? Nader could learn a lesson because Sanders gets to vote.
Look at Barr, the GOP with a new shirt.
Nader would not have cooperation.
The third party will grow from GOP fragments. That is good for Democrats.
The best hope for liberal minded Nader supporters are Democrats. They are inclusive from Kucinnich to Liberman and organized already.
A vote for Nader as President is a waste, even if he won.
This is a giant shoving match. Bush and Reagan dominated because they had Congressional support.
Nader should run for Congress.

[DorkimusMaximus]

The "Ralph Nader is Like Totally Cool and Would Make an Awesome President" political action committee is responsible for the nonsense of the above post.

[LeeCalif]

Gee. I thought we were voting Bush out.

But I see the Dems have their own fascism to deal with. But when will they?

Go Nader/Gonzalez !!

[Dana D]

The best that anyone can do to Nader is to IGNORE HIM! He has no place in politics and never did. If he truly wanted to help this nation through the crises currently happening, he'd have run as a full-fledged candidate. Instead, he's a spoilsport, an attention seeking interloper, and a waste of anyone's attention.

[CokeOrPepsi2008]

"The best that anyone can do to Nader is to IGNORE HIM!"

The media have done that for two years. All the "progressive" Air America type have, in particular.

"He has no place in politics and never did. "

Actually, he's on the ballot in 45 states, ten more than 4 years ago.

"If he truly wanted to help this nation through the crises currently happening, he'd have run as a full-fledged candidate. "

He is running as a full-fledged candidate - if he wins the vote, he's president.

"Instead, he's a spoilsport, an attention seeking interloper, and a waste of anyone's attention."

After two years of 24/7 coverage in every media source of Rev. Wright, Obama, smears, gotchas, Guliani, Romney, Huckabee, Xmas crosses, Chris "I like Insurance Companies" Dodd, Biden, Clinton (both of them), McCain, Palin's clothes. primaries, flag lapel pins, religion, red/blue/purple ads - what's the real waste of time?? RALPH'S NEVER HAD ANY ATTENTION FOR TWO YEARS!!!

[jeffmojo]

It's clear Nader is the only candidate who isn't in the tank for big business. Look at Obama's Wall Street backers. He and McCain are two peas in the Corporate Pod.