What will a Hillary Clinton presidency look like?
The answer by now seems obvious: It will look like her presidential campaign, which in turn looks increasingly like the first Clinton presidency.
Which is to say, high-minded ideals, lowered execution, half truths, outright lies (and imaginary flights), take-no prisoners politics, some very good policy ideas, a presidential spouse given to wallowing in anger and self-pity, and a succession of aides and surrogates pushed under the bus when things don't go right. Which is to say, often.
And endless psychodrama: the essential Clintonian experience that mesmerizes the press, confuses the citizenry, confounds members of both parties in Congress (not to mention the Clintons themselves, at times) and pretty much keeps the rest of the world constantly amused and fixated.
Such a picture of Clinton Redux is, by definition, speculation. But it is speculation based on the best evidence at hand: the demonstrable and familiar record of Hillary and Bill Clinton coupled together in Permanent Campaign-mode for a generation, waging a continuous fight on the national political stage since 1992, an unceasing campaign for the White House, for redemption, for their ideas (sometimes) and for themselves (almost always), especially in 2008.
The basic dynamics of the campaign, except for the Clintons' vast new-found personal wealth and its challenges, have been near-constant since they arrived in Washington: through Whitewater, health care, the battle of the budget, the culture wars, the tax returns released only under duress, the travel office, Monica, impeachment, the pardons and through Hillary Clinton's often repugnant presidential campaign.
In many ways, the characteristic tone, secrecy, and resilience of the Clinton political march have been determined more by Hillary Clinton than by her husband, reflecting her deepest attributes and attitudes, fermented in recognition of the antipathy held against both of them, and often, the foul tactics of their enemies. As an aide put it (quoted in my book, A Woman In Charge: the Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton):
She doesn't look at her life as a series of crises but rather a series of battles. I think of her viewing herself in more heroic terms, an epic character like in The Iliad, fighting battle after battle. Yes, she succumbs to victimization sometimes, in that when the truth becomes too painful, when she is faced with the repercussions of her own mistakes or flaws, she falls into victimhood. But that's a last resort and when she does allow the wallowing it's only in the warm glow of martyrdom--as a laudable victim--a martyr in the tradition of Joan of Arc, a martyr in the religious sense. She would much rather play the woman warrior--whether it's against the bimbos, the press, the other party, the other candidate, the right-wing. She's happiest when she's fighting, when she has identified the enemy and goes into attack mode. . . . That's what she thrives on more than anything--the battle.
The latest transmutation of leadership in the campaign of Hillary Clinton for president -- Mark Penn's departure or non-departure, be it window dressing or window cleaning -- is perhaps the best index we have of the more absurd aspects of her candidacy and evidence of its increasing bankruptcy.
The Clinton folks asserted to donors and reporters alike that this second "shake-up" in eight weeks at the very top of the campaign apparat represents some kind of great electoral moment, an opportunity for Hillary to state her case "more positively," as if the negative approach had been forced on her; the beginning of yet another "turnaround" as if Penn, rather than Hillary (and Bill), has been the big problem. As if Penn were not an appendage of his two patrons, as if he were some kind of independent contractor twisting the candidate's arm to do what comes unnaturally to her. The willingness of so much of the press, sensitized to the Clintons' off-center complaints about one-sided coverage, to buy into this line is stunning.
In fact, the demotion of Penn -- like the departure of Hillary's acolyte Patty Solis Doyle as campaign manager -- is a confession that, for all her claims of "experience" and leadership abilities, Hillary Clinton has now presided over two disastrous national enterprises, the most important professional undertakings of her adult life, both of which she began with ample wind at her back: the healthcare reform of her husband's presidency, and now her own campaign for the White House. These two failures -- and the demonizing of her opponents in both instances -- may be the best indication of the kind of President she would be, especially when confronted (inevitably) by unanticipated difficulty and/or entrenched opposition to her ideas and programs.
It is exactly under such circumstances that she usually resorts to the worst excesses that mark her in full warrior-mode -- and all its scorched-earth, truth-be-damned manifestations. Bosnia, anyone? Smearing the women involved (or even thought to be involved) sexually with her husband. Responding to Barack Obama with the same mindset, disdain, and arsenal as she did Karl Rove and Lee Atwater, as if Obama's politics and methodologies were as mendacious and vicious as theirs-and her own. Tax information kept secret (in 1992 to hide her profits from trading in cattle futures; in 2008 to shield the identities of Bill's foreign clients.) A campaign that openly boasts of throwing "the kitchen sink" at her opponent.
What you see is what you get: Hillary's cynical view of the larger interests of the Democratic Party, exhibited in her 3 a.m. red telephone ad. And her simultaneous, incongruous suggestion that Barack Obama -- notwithstanding his supposed lack of national security qualifications to be commander-in-chief -- would make a good vice president on her ticket.
And, yes, a sense of entitlement that veritably shouts, "Look, because I believe in good things, and because of all I've been through, I deserve to win this."
And yet, there is no denying that, compared to the Bush years, the accomplishments of the Clinton presidency, in which she was an elemental force (and generalissimo in the often successful fight against the forces of "the vast right-wing conspiracy") are prodigious, marked by peace and prosperity, whatever the price of the Clintons' methodologies and personal failings.
In projecting what a Hillary Clinton presidency would look like, there is the conundrum of her senatorial tenure and what had appeared to be a surcease in her Pavlovian resort to trench warfare: a period in which -- until the day drew near for her to announce her presidential candidacy -- she seemed (to her oldest friends, certainly) happier and more at ease, and straightforward in her public dealings, and less guarded, than at any point in her life since she followed Bill Clinton to Arkansas.
Hillary Clinton's unique star power, her performance as a senator and fundraiser on behalf of her party are what gave legitimacy to the idea that she might be a credible presidential candidate: all premised on her changed demeanor in the Senate years, compared to her embattled tenure as first lady. As a steward of her state's interest, and a patient student of senatorial compromise and collegiality, she was widely commended by former skeptics in Congress and the press.
True, her most revealing moment as a senator of national consequence was the vote she cast to authorize George W. Bush to go to war, which she's been trying to explain since with dubious credibility. ("If I knew now what I knew then," etc.) Twenty-one of her fellow Democratic senators had no doubts about what Bush intended, and voted against the authorization.
The second most revealing moment was her endorsement of legislation to make flag-burning illegal, the kind of pandering she once attacked right-wing Republicans of practicing. Meanwhile, she and her husband have regularly misrepresented their own postures and statements in the run-up to the war, as well as Obama's record, with Bill Clinton claiming to have been against the war from the start, and Hillary saying she has consistently been more adamant in her opposition than Obama -- except for the matter of his single "speech" against the war before it started.
The assumption of many senatorial colleagues, former Clinton aides, and reporters (including this one) was that her presidential campaign would be much different from the one she and Bill Clinton waged through the White House years.
In A Woman in Charge, I wrote about her ability to evolve, observable especially in the years before she met Bill Clinton and in the Senate: to learn from her mistakes. Events have proven me wrong on that count.
The 2008 Clinton campaign, in fact, has been an exercise in devolution, back to the angry, demonizing, accusatory Hillary Clinton of the worst days of the Clinton presidency, flailing, and furtive, and disingenuous; and, as in the White House years, putting forth programs and ideas worthy of respect and deserving of the kind of substantive debate she claims she wants her race against Barrack Obama to be based upon.
Bill, meanwhile, has taken up Hillary's old role as defender and apologist, with disinformation and misinformation, but (far less effectively than she defended him). Also with near-apoplectic tirades that have left their friends worried and wondering.
In the process of their search-and-destroy mission against Barack Obama, the Clintons have pursued a strategy that at times seems deliberately aimed at undermining Obama's credibility if he becomes John McCain's opponent -- heresy in the view of an increasing number of the Clintons' former suppporters and aides, a suprising number of whom now back Obama.
The choice ahead -- in Pennsylvania, and the remaining primary states, and for the super delegates, and perhaps even the arbiters of a deadlocked convention -- is clear enough at this point, at least in terms of what the 2008 Clinton campaign is about: the Clintons -- plural. Theirs is a campaign for Restoration to the White House, not simply the election of Hillary Clinton. Theirs is, has always been, a joint enterprise, a see-saw routine in which the psyches and actions of each balances the board according to the personal dynamics of the moment.
A long-time associate of the Clintons, with whom Hillary has consulted in their quest to return to the White House, said early in her campaign: "She has a very plausible case for president. She had an eight-year super-graduate course in the presidency, a progressive platform..." He paused, and added: "[But] I'm not sure I want the circus back in town."
That is what the Hillary for President campaign has become: the whole Clinton three-ring circus, with little evidence that moving back to the White House will alter that most basic fact.
Originally published on AC 360 blog.