Just before Senator Obama left for his overseas tour, new poll numbers came out that provided us with some interesting new trends, particularly given the state of the nation's economy and readings of how many Americans think the country is on the wrong track (73%). Question for you. In the last month to six weeks, has the economy gotten better or worse? Exactly. The economy has gotten worse. Yet, in that same period, John McCain's poll numbers actually rose when, given the national conditions and unpopularity of President Bush along with Senator Obama's vastly superior communication skills and financial resources, McCain's numbers should be arguably somewhere below zero.
Granted, the early results show some spike upward in poll numbers for Barack Obama as a result of the European trip, but generally, there are signs, particularly in some key swing states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado and Minnesota, that McCain will really make this a race in the fall and might even have a chance to win. And the inside track is that as McCain either closes the gap or continues to remain competitive when he should be down by 15 points, Hillary's name goes back on the VP "short list" and maybe moves up rather fast.
What's happening? Several things are at play here and some of them are converging in McCain's favor by default.
First, the media is at it again. By all rights, in at least three of the state primaries in the Democratic primary campaign, when Hillary Clinton should have been closed out on election night, the voters' perception of a media "bias" against Clinton and in favor of Obama actually helped sustain Clinton particularly among white females to enable her to fight on another day.
And now, that same media, still determined to elect Senator Obama, may actually be hurting him as a recent poll showed that 73% of those polled say the media is "favoring Obama over McCain." I believe that some of the rise in McCain's poll numbers reflect some backlash against the media in the same way that response actually helped Hillary in the later primaries.
Second, the current polls show Americans split right down the middle on supporting Obama's position calling for a sixteen month timetable for withdrawing all troops from Iraq vs supporting McCain's position of withdrawals based only on conditions on the ground without a set timetable. And with increased focus on Iraq because of Senator Obama's trip to both Iraq and Afghanistan, John McCain has been given an opportunity to argue that the "Surge has worked even though Senator Obama opposed it". Yes, the Surge is working, but it has not accomplished the goals the Bush Administration originally set as its purpose, so I reject McCain's argument -- but the American people are not rejecting that argument.
And McCain's support for off shore oil drilling, a policy that will be years off in providing real relief at the pump, is nevertheless an argument that's finally taking hold with voters ($4.00 a gallon gas prices helps voters get a better "hold" of the issue). And Barack Obama also opposes that policy as well.
Third, I continue to repeat the argument I have been making for months -- that many Americans, mostly white liberals, the media, and now even many African Americans, are still significantly underestimating the extent to which Race will be a factor when people go behind closed curtains to vote on November 3rd -- and that factor is also at play in the recent polls showing McCain gaining regardless of what any pundit may tell you.
And Fourth, and most importantly, Barack Obama still has not introduced himself and defined himself in a way that tells the American people "who he really is" in a way that would make most Americans, specifically moderates and independents, more comfortable with him as a person who would be their President - and this point is not primarily about race - it's about human nature. And it helps explain a recent NBC- Wall Street Journal Poll that shows 55% of voters think Obama is a riskier choice for President, while only 35% think McCain is.
Barack Obama needs to introduce and define himself in a familial way to the American people -- not the German people, and in the words of his national co-chair, Harold Ford of Tennessee, "he better do it soon." Otherwise, Obama will continue to be far more vulnerable to New Yorker magazine type covers, "Oreo cookie" comments by the John McLaughlins' of the world, and increased negative personal scrutiny when Jesse Jackson and others make comments that really should not have any impact on Obama, but do have an impact on him because when people don't feel they really know you, then anything they hear about you helps them to think they are now learning more about you.
But until Barack Obama really defines himself (and he has a great story), then he runs a campaign where others define him. And if you let others define you (swift boaters a la John Kerry) etc, regardless of how much money you have and how large your crowds are, it's hard to win. And for Obama, the most difficult challenges remain here at home. After all, I would remind everyone that in US Presidential elections, the European vote tends to come in well after our polls have closed.
Finally, I will repeat this assessment of the November 3rd results several times between now and then. John McCain does not have the potential to beat Barack Obama in a landslide, and with all the negatives for Republicans this year, if it's not a landslide, then issues like "Race" are playing far larger than most are willing to acknowledge.
Therefore, if the election results are a landslide (8 points or higher), Obama wins and is the only possible winner. But if this election is close, within 3 to 4 points, with all the problems in the country, then John McCain is your next President.
Carl Jeffers is a Los Angeles-and Seattle based columnist, TV political analyst, radio talk show host and lecturer. E-mail: cjintel@juno.com
Wrong.
I own a Polling Company. What do you want the answers to be, and how much are you willing to pay me for them to be that way? I am a King-maker. I am your Bookie. I hold your eternal destiny in the palm of my hand and Billions of Dollars are what moves me.
Got it? Good. Now that we are on the same page, here's the Swiss Bank account-number ...
Nice...
The only point of contention I have with the article is its downplay in media bias. Since roughly 2000, the major media, though still massively influential, has lost much (most) of its credibility with the American people. More and more people are taking what the pundits say with a grain of salt. Furthering this trend in what I believe to be a positive direction, more and more people are also taking pollsters with a grain of salt as dishonest polling techniques are becoming more well known. During the many state primaries, a surprisingly large number of people believed (I among them) that the exit polls, combined with the noisier media elements, helped shape the results of the primaries.
I'm not saying the rest of your article is irrelevant by comparison, just that the media has had a huge impact on this campaign. Unlike in previous campaigns, though, where the media was just as influential, mass communication is making it easier to cut through the BS when the media, and even the candidates, are being less-than-truthful. The discrediting of the media would be an immense improvement on our country's political affairs, since it's probably the only thing that'll get them to start 'just reporting' instead of 'just suggesting'.
I would also like you to qualify this statement:
"The majority of white voters already voted for a screw-up, and normally they vote against their own best interest...."
Take your time.
You have got to be kidding. Racism may well be alive in America, but it certainly does not affect the MAJORITY. We have come along way "baby".
Thus, we should drill offshore, though the oil, if found, would be sold overseas (see Alaska). The surge worked, therefore anyone who thought it wouldn't must be wrong about everything else under the sun. Nevermind that the definition of "worked" apparently includes regular suicide bombings. Someone is cranky, so he is unstable though he has been a Senator for over 20 years. Someone else can't bowl worth a damn, so he is elite and elite is bad, even though the last two Presidents both went to Yale.
All I know is come November, I will vote proudly (in spite of it all).
And if they continue to portray the race as close, it can actually be stolen again. Our only chance for this election NOT to be stolen, is to come out in unprecedented, overwhelming numbers. And the right is already diligently working to keep those numbers down.
Republican game plan:
-facilitate the APPEARANCE that this race remains close
-attack Obama, attack Obama, and then attack Obama. (the attack topic does not matter, just attack)
-fire up your base with a wedge issue. (flag pins, flag burning, affirmative action, rev wright) - again it does not matter, as long as it inflames passion in the low information voter.
-suppress the voter turnout of a very enthusiastic Democratic base. (pass ID laws, purge rolls, etc)
-feign outrage at ANYTHING Obama says, then put it into print, on the radio, on FOX, and every media outlet to CREATE literal HATRED for him. DEMONIZE him! He must be made out to be the Devil incarnate!
- FORGET that his grandparents are from Kansas.
- PLAY UP every negative person who has ever WAVED at him in his entire existence.
If one was to compare the election to the recruitment process for a high ranking job, it becomes pellucidly clear who would be offered the job. The fact that McCain is even in the running speaks to RACIST AMERICA. The way that the entire world embraces an Obama presidency speaks to the fact that everyone can see what's most needed in America..................everyone other than the racist Americans (that is).
But hey, if it makes you feel better to think that there's a pro-Obama bias, be my guest.
The news programs need to get back to the business of news. Obama needs to get to the business of winning an election. And the "journalists" need to get back to the job of reporting it, not participating in it.
Excellent points. However, he is already introduced. How much more do you want? The reason people are still confused is because they are looking for more and there is no more. He is an honest man and isn't lying. It's the pundits who are making him out to be something he is not. His problem is when he is finally accepted a glib and charismatic empty suit, it will be devastating for him and his supporters.
The problem a lot of voters have (I know, myself and my family are four of them) is that statements like these meet some pretty intense scrutiny when we measure what he's said before to what he's said later on a variety of topics. Nobody, not a single person, supporter of Mr. Obama or not, can listen to very clear audio recordings of the man stating he doesn't support the surge and it's a failure and then others of the man stating he supports it and it's worked and say that he's not backpeddling. None of that is the media's fault.
So it's likely that what's preventing uncommitted from committing has more to do with the attitude that they are between the inexperienced rock and the too traditional hard spot.
They'll decide when they decide.
Obama isn't going to get more specific than he's already done. He is all about trusting him. He is the movement.
Either people like that kind of politics (I don't) or they don't.
Obama isn't going to change that message now.
As for his supposed "flip flops", I'd like you to compare the many flip flops of McSame to those of Obama, and then come back and talk about Obama's flip flops. I can't tell whether McCain is a Democrat or a Republican, and I don't think he knows either. But I do know that he has sold his soul to the right of the Republican party in order win the election, which is ironic for someone who tries to portray Obama as a "typical politician".