Just before Senator Obama left for his overseas tour, new poll numbers came out that provided us with some interesting new trends, particularly given the state of the nation's economy and readings of how many Americans think the country is on the wrong track (73%). Question for you. In the last month to six weeks, has the economy gotten better or worse? Exactly. The economy has gotten worse. Yet, in that same period, John McCain's poll numbers actually rose when, given the national conditions and unpopularity of President Bush along with Senator Obama's vastly superior communication skills and financial resources, McCain's numbers should be arguably somewhere below zero.
Granted, the early results show some spike upward in poll numbers for Barack Obama as a result of the European trip, but generally, there are signs, particularly in some key swing states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado and Minnesota, that McCain will really make this a race in the fall and might even have a chance to win. And the inside track is that as McCain either closes the gap or continues to remain competitive when he should be down by 15 points, Hillary's name goes back on the VP "short list" and maybe moves up rather fast.
What's happening? Several things are at play here and some of them are converging in McCain's favor by default.
First, the media is at it again. By all rights, in at least three of the state primaries in the Democratic primary campaign, when Hillary Clinton should have been closed out on election night, the voters' perception of a media "bias" against Clinton and in favor of Obama actually helped sustain Clinton particularly among white females to enable her to fight on another day.
And now, that same media, still determined to elect Senator Obama, may actually be hurting him as a recent poll showed that 73% of those polled say the media is "favoring Obama over McCain." I believe that some of the rise in McCain's poll numbers reflect some backlash against the media in the same way that response actually helped Hillary in the later primaries.
Second, the current polls show Americans split right down the middle on supporting Obama's position calling for a sixteen month timetable for withdrawing all troops from Iraq vs supporting McCain's position of withdrawals based only on conditions on the ground without a set timetable. And with increased focus on Iraq because of Senator Obama's trip to both Iraq and Afghanistan, John McCain has been given an opportunity to argue that the "Surge has worked even though Senator Obama opposed it". Yes, the Surge is working, but it has not accomplished the goals the Bush Administration originally set as its purpose, so I reject McCain's argument -- but the American people are not rejecting that argument.
And McCain's support for off shore oil drilling, a policy that will be years off in providing real relief at the pump, is nevertheless an argument that's finally taking hold with voters ($4.00 a gallon gas prices helps voters get a better "hold" of the issue). And Barack Obama also opposes that policy as well.
Third, I continue to repeat the argument I have been making for months -- that many Americans, mostly white liberals, the media, and now even many African Americans, are still significantly underestimating the extent to which Race will be a factor when people go behind closed curtains to vote on November 3rd -- and that factor is also at play in the recent polls showing McCain gaining regardless of what any pundit may tell you.
And Fourth, and most importantly, Barack Obama still has not introduced himself and defined himself in a way that tells the American people "who he really is" in a way that would make most Americans, specifically moderates and independents, more comfortable with him as a person who would be their President - and this point is not primarily about race - it's about human nature. And it helps explain a recent NBC- Wall Street Journal Poll that shows 55% of voters think Obama is a riskier choice for President, while only 35% think McCain is.
Barack Obama needs to introduce and define himself in a familial way to the American people -- not the German people, and in the words of his national co-chair, Harold Ford of Tennessee, "he better do it soon." Otherwise, Obama will continue to be far more vulnerable to New Yorker magazine type covers, "Oreo cookie" comments by the John McLaughlins' of the world, and increased negative personal scrutiny when Jesse Jackson and others make comments that really should not have any impact on Obama, but do have an impact on him because when people don't feel they really know you, then anything they hear about you helps them to think they are now learning more about you.
But until Barack Obama really defines himself (and he has a great story), then he runs a campaign where others define him. And if you let others define you (swift boaters a la John Kerry) etc, regardless of how much money you have and how large your crowds are, it's hard to win. And for Obama, the most difficult challenges remain here at home. After all, I would remind everyone that in US Presidential elections, the European vote tends to come in well after our polls have closed.
Finally, I will repeat this assessment of the November 3rd results several times between now and then. John McCain does not have the potential to beat Barack Obama in a landslide, and with all the negatives for Republicans this year, if it's not a landslide, then issues like "Race" are playing far larger than most are willing to acknowledge.
Therefore, if the election results are a landslide (8 points or higher), Obama wins and is the only possible winner. But if this election is close, within 3 to 4 points, with all the problems in the country, then John McCain is your next President.
Carl Jeffers is a Los Angeles-and Seattle based columnist, TV political analyst, radio talk show host and lecturer. E-mail: cjintel@juno.com
Posted July 29, 2008 | 12:28 PM (EST)