Obama '08 - The Reverse Race Card and the Oprah Factor

The major media focus this past week has been on the re-surging Barack Obama campaign for the Democratic nomination for President, and the role that Oprah Winfrey's public and active support for the Obama campaign will have on the final selection process.

It is interesting that the PR frontal assault launched by Oprah comes just a couple of weeks after Obama's wife, Michelle, seemed to chastise the African-American community for not having overwhelmingly embraced the Obama campaign yet in its preference for who should be the next President. At one point, Michelle Obama said that "Black America will wake up and get it" in an MSNBC interview. She also said the Black community had to "shake off its fear."

In reality, she was actually playing on the very racial fears that she was condemning in her critique of apprehensions African-Americans have about the prospects of a successful Obama campaign for the Presidency. Michelle Obama seemed intent on linking the lack of overwhelming support for her husband among Black Americans with vestiges left from slavery and decades of racial injustice. In short, she was almost attempting to shame Black Americans into feeling as if they needed to free themselves of their own hang ups about race in America and then openly embrace her husband.

In fact, African Americans cannot just "free" themselves of hang ups about race in America, nor can they just "free" themselves from the vestiges of racial injustice, stereotypes and prejudices. Why? Because all of those factors still do exist in American society. Personally, as a political analyst, I always evaluate at least part of assessing a candidate's viability on making a judgment about whether they can actually win the election. Of course their positions on the issues and their previous track record and the excitement and authenticity and genuineness they bring to the campaign are all important - and Joe Biden and Chris Dodd and possibly Bill Richardson and even Dennis Kucinich all meet that criterion - but they necessarily lose points in the evaluation of their potential candidacy when the "can they actually win" question is addressed.

If African-Americans, and not all were doing this to begin with, but if many elect to determine who they will support based on who they think can actually win, and if they think that race and attitudes about race in America are factors that suggest to them that a particular candidate cannot win, then it is entirely justifiable for them to reach that conclusion until or unless either the circumstances on the ground in the campaign or the efforts of the candidates themselves convince them otherwise. And that reasoning is just as powerful and supportable as when Michelle Obama argues that Hillary Clinton "cannot win" because of pre-formed attitudes.

And all of the concepts that Michelle Obama raised as complaints about the less than total support Barack Obama had been receiving among potential black voters completely disintegrate when one considers that if Hillary Clinton were not in the race, Barack Obama would probably lead all candidates among black voters by a substantial margin. If the premises Michelle Obama postured were true, then it wouldn't matter who was in the race as African-Americans would still not be supporting Obama based on the reasons that Michelle raised. The bottom line is that for many African Americans, their lack of support for Barack Obama had nothing to do with racial intolerance and the memories of slavery and feeling they "can't do this" etc - they simply preferred someone else.

And now, enter Oprah Winfrey. Americans have not held back in nurturing their love and admiration of Oprah Winfrey because of racial attitudes and the vestiges of slavery - no, instead - Oprah was the one they preferred the most, and so they have embraced her as their favorite. And when they feel that way about Barack Obama, they will embrace him in the same way - but right now, for many Americans, white and black, they prefer someone else - its as simple as that.

But Oprah is a factor, and although I disagree with her policy of not allowing any other candidates to appear on her show other than Barack Obama (she's like a guardian of a public treasure), I think it is exciting to see someone of her stature become so enthusiastic and excited about participating in the political process.

But what will her impact be? Oprah has long had far more reverential adulation among white female suburbanites than among African-American women, even though her approval ratings are high among both. But White women have put Oprah on a stature with a First Lady or earth bound Goddess, and Oprah has not quite reached that stature among most African-American women - even though they love her, including my own Mom who has attended an Oprah show in Chicago. And what makes this situation so interesting is that the demographics of the people who love Oprah in Iowa couldn't be more different than the people who love her in South Carolina, and she is putting her name and prestige on the line for Barack Obama in both states.

Here's what Oprah does for Barack Obama. One, she keeps him on the front pages of the news even as all the campaigns tend to take a back seat to the holidays, family and weather right now. Two, Oprah gets so much more media attention and coverage that is just like buying tons of advertising and commercials for the Obama campaign - even better. Three, Oprah attracts lots of women to the campaign which serves as a subtle knock on the Hillary Clinton campaign (be careful that doesn't backfire a bit). Four, if the Obama campaign is smart, they will convert many of the new female supporters to actual campaign workers, always a valuable asset. Five, the Oprah involvement will increase fund raising and financial support to the campaign. And Six, it provides momentum going into the first primaries only three weeks away that might very well translate into votes. No one really knows what actual impact Oprah will have, but no one will criticize that support, and everyone wishes they had it. In some ways, the Oprah factor actually raises the stakes for Obama. Now, he almost has to win Iowa, and he really needs to carry the black vote in South Carolina (he's drawing even there after running behind).

If somehow, after all this, Hillary still manages to win Iowa by any margin, and win South Carolina and still carry the black vote, then the Obama campaign will have suffered a major blow, and there's only one Oprah out there to call on. If Obama wins Iowa, South Carolina and less likely New Hampshire, then he's on his way to Super Tuesday, and while heading there his wife can apologize to African-Americans for misjudging their attitudes and level of political sophistication.

Carl Jeffers is a Seattle-and-Los Angeles based columnist, political analyst and lecturer. He hosts a KIRO-AM talk show program, ON FIRE with Carl Jeffers, and he is a guest host of Clear Channel Radio and Air America Radio as well. Carl Jeffers is a political commentator for the Radio One Network and also the KCBI network in Dallas,TX. Jeffers is a national TV political commentator and is also an editorial contributor to The Seattle Times. E-mail: [e-mail]

Comments

[jakibaez]

I thank you too for your objective analysis of the race factor in the primaries, but, in my opinion you are wrong. Today the polls showed that 80% of the people whether black or white, did not think that Oprah the Marvelous would help them decide to whom to vote for in the election. 1% was all she received. 44% said that Bill Clinton is a great asset and 1% is given to Oprah. So, as I see it, the beginning of your article was corrected. Michelle Obama has made the african americans feel obligated to vote because of the racial status. What a pity! I am black and I am hispanic, does that mean that I am going to vote for Ricardson or Obama due to my racial background? No. The african americans that are intelligent know that if there is a good chance that the DNC will sweep the white house it is not going to happen with Obama. That is why Hillary is still ahead. This division of race is disgusting and I find that it divides our nation more so. There is nothing wrong for Obama to run on Hillary's ticket and learn the ropes and maybe after Hillary leaves the president position, he will be experience and the race factor will not matter to the american people. Right now, it is being promoted by Oprah and if Obama does lose, I believe it will hurt Oprah too. I find her so offensive in the way she strokes, pamper, touches and kisses him in public and even in front of his wife. It is very disrespecting. But, Michelle Obama is ambitious, and ambitious people put that ahead of morals.

[RuthieM]

No matter what, I don't think Michelle Obama owes blacks any apology whatsoever, she was absoultely right, correct, because it was and is true what she said. I've been black all my life and I can relate to what Michelle Obama said because that's the way blacks have been acting and talking. When she said it I thought that I couldn't have said it any better myself. And kudos to Michelle Obama for saying that because perhaps because of what she said is why Obama today is doing better among blacks. No, Michelle Obama should not be apologizing for what she said then, quite the contrary, black people should be thanking Michelle Obama for 'waking us up' because as Oprah and I and many other blacks have said, this election is too critical -- to be sleeping, and that goes for blacks, whites, and every race in America! OBAMA '08!!!

[Orikinla]

Senator Barack Obama would be a prefect Vice President to President Hillary Rodham Clinton.
This is my best offer to him until 2014.

God bless Hillary Rodham Clinton and God bless America.

[Researchguy66]

Oprah and the media hype right now definitely raises the stakes in Iowa for Obama. It's a pretty big gamble for him. HRC knows that right now as well and she's the one candidate who doesn't need to win in Iowa to keep going. If she were politically astute (and she is), she'll tank herself to drag Obama down with her.

Then again, it may pay off in Iowa for him. Momentum does count for a lot as does the overll perception that he can win. His trick will be to get his caucusers from in front of the TV on Jan 3.

It'll be an interesting show...

[zull2]

The reason that Obama's popularity is surging has as little to do with Oprah as anything.

It's something that we all predicted early on. The only universally known faces in this election are Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. Clinton, however, is tied to the successes of her husband. There are those who are diehard fans of the Clintons, but then there are those who only supported her because they were afraid that no one else had a chance of winning...either that, or they had no idea who Barack Obama really was nor what he stood for.

The past few months, people have become acquainted with Obama and his ideals and platform, and they've begun supporting him. The Obama-haters out there frequently think it's some sort of cult following thing, and yes, maybe early on, there were those who were drawn to his charisma. But the majority of those who are supporting him now are people who've had time to assess the issues and have made a decision that they like Obama's stance on the issues better than Hillary.

Hillary Clinton has done little, if anything, to engender the support of her base because she's been thinking that independent voters are more "conservative" than the Democratic base. She couldn't be more wrong. Those are mostly folks who are disillusioned with the two party system, and in some cases, are substantially more radical than most of the Democratic or Republican base. Obama and Edwards have worked the hardest for the party base, and are being rewarded for it. However, Obama represents something new, a new face, one that is not associated with losing an election as Edwards is. So, people are leaning towards Obama.

It's all pretty simple when you think about it.

[Orikinla]

Thank you for your objective analysis of the race factor in the primaries.

Obama should not beg for African American sympathies and then try to curry the favour of White Americans.
He used the opposition to the war in Iraq in Iowa and then used the black race factor in South Carolina.
It is hypocritical to play to the gallery and that was what Oprah Winfrey did for Obama. But the contest for the Oval Office is not a race war.

Telling blacks in South Carolina to vote for Barack Obama, because he is black is an insult on the intelligence of African Americans.
If Barack Obama cannot win votes without Oprah Winfrey, then he cannot be the President of the United States of America.

Oprah Winfrey is only supporting Barack Obama, because he is black.
What a pity.

[kcgeban]

A country gets the government it deserves. If Americans are stupid enough to elect a president based on the endorsement of a sel-absorbed woman who has shown several lapses in judgement (See: James Frey, sexual abuse South African school, death of that rapper´s mother, etc.), then they deserve Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton plays dirty but she's smart and capable; the Republicans play dirty and they're hypocritical and corrupt. She's the only one who can beat them at their own game.

Ariana is right about one thing: the democrats are addicted to losing. Get behind Hillary you numbskulls.

[fullkelly]

I don't really care to vote for Oprah.

[larry278]

This is an overly long, bitterly fought campaign. Any mistake a candidate or his/her supporters can make has been made by now. I'm waiting for unique, new mistakes. This bunch is big & creative. The new mistakes will be big mistakes. Bitter people often make big mistakes. The country is divided & polarized; that makes for bitterness & stupid mistakes.

[ButterflyWeed]

After just reading Mr. Jeffers' bio, I remain perplexed as to what he expects Michelle Obama to apologize for. My hope is that the Obama for America campaign will invite Mr. Jeffers to accompany them for a day. Maybe then he'll get the "it" Michelle refers to.
Like many voters, my focus is on who can lead this nation FORWARD out of the embroiled messes we are in.

[Grandmother]

Michelle Obama is just as ambitious as her husband but then it is okay because he is black and no one can say anything about either one of them without being called racist. And if a white blogger questioned what she or her darling or their surrogate Winfrey said, they would be called out on the carpet.
I'm tired of Hillary Clinton getting bashed for allegedly using her gender in this race. The Obamas use the race card every chance they get.
I will not vote for Obama in a general election - I'll just not vote. He will get crushed by the republicans.
My opposition to him is that he takes the easy way out - and a previous poster is correct - he just doesn't vote but I don't see slings and arrows because Obama has missed a couple of important (but politically difficult) senate votes. Also what about his record in Springfield regarding votes on abortion rights - he didn't vote then either rather stating "present" What a hypocrite.
I'll vote for ANY of the Democratic candidates EXCEPT the Obama, Winfrey and Michelle team. If you think HRC was running the show while Bill was president, you haven't seen anything yet.

[Pippen]

Obama cant win why bother with the hype unless you want to doom the DEM ticket further ? Better start pushing Hillary or brace yourself for another 8 years of a republican. 8 long years of supreme court choices, 8 years of destroying the US Constitution, torture, war, high oil prices, failed tax policies, offshoring of American jobs, lies lies lies and more lies from the white house........


My God, Dems are so befuddled. We have a stellar teflon jaggernaught candidate whos' seen combat in the political arena and won. And you want to back a very long shot against a money machine that is bottomless ?

If this crazed ADD VH1, M TV hype of Obama continues we'll lose another national election.

[cloudy]

This column's logic is flawed or hazy in a number of ways.

In particular, there needs to be a fuller exploration (probably strengthened by examining polling internals) of just who HRC is appealing to and why. Otherwise, we are left with the kind of fact speculation of this article.

Clinton starts this campaign MUCH better known than Obama, and the presumptively "most electable" of the Democrats (I don't agree w/ the latter Conventional Wisdom). In retrospect, the Clinton presidency appears quite acceptable to a lot of Americans, and there is a sense that it is a known quantity people can look back to.

To simply say voters or certain blocs of voters 'prefer Hillary' is to beg all these admittedly speculative questions.

Incidentally, I have read already more than one poll from South Carolina finding Obama leading by 16% or so among black voters and Clinton by a similar margin among white voters. The punditeratti love to find paradoxes, and sometimes cling to them even if they aren't true.

[tbl92666]

Full disclosure -- I'm a white gay male, longtime Democrat.

I won't vote for Obama for two reasons -- even if he is the nominee:

1. He's not qualified. His whole platform is that he is Obama. He's wrote a few self-serving books -- whoopee. He's introduced like, what, one bill since he's been in the Senate? Why might that be -- oh because if he actually did something when he was elected to office, people might have some idea of what he stands for...other than just being Obama...and his whole schtick is ruined. I might not like every position that Hillary has taken -- but at least she has taken a position or two, so I know where she stands.

Which leads me to point number two.

2. Donnie McClurkin. Pretty much sums up my complete distrust of Obama. One time when he actually made a decision and stuck to it, it was a poke in the eye to gay people. Which, given the overall homophobic views of blacks, doesn't surprise me in the least.

If he's the nominee, I won't vote. If the office goes Republican, then we get four more years of the devil I know. With a Democratic majority in Congress, I'll take that over the devil and Donnie McClurkin any day.

[Waitaminute]

Why do you Mr. Jeffer and Mr. Ridley, misrepresent what Mrs. Obama said? Why? The content i am sure is easily available to you.

I recall the question being asked, is Senator Obama "black enough". If the post on this blog is any indication. I'd say the white people here are blacker then both of you. WOW!!

Instead of trying to bring a racial thing into this, may i suggest you listen and read the reasons a lot of white people are saying in support of Senator Obama. They have a better understanding of Mrs. Obama's statement then the both of you "black guys".