Obama-McCain -- They Fail Midterms, Now They Cram Debate Finals

As we move into this week of the first Presidential Debates, it may be helpful to review how the two candidates for President have fared in the first half of the main fall campaign. In many ways, they have not fared well. And if we are passing out failing grades for performance to date, let's not leave out the media as they certainly deserve that same report card as well.

For John McCain, he came out of his convention with a surprising level of new momentum thanks to his choice of Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate. And in fact, for the first few weeks after the conventions, the McCain campaign defied the media predictions that the "Palin" effect would wear off quickly and her "obvious" experience defects would doom the ticket. Indeed, from strictly the perspective of objective analysis of campaign strategy, if your campaign perceives that the media is out to "destroy" your VP candidate, and if that candidate is creating even more excitement than you are, then it is absolutely good campaign strategy to pair the two of you together on the campaign trail and limit the exposure of your VP pick to a media that you perceive as "lying in wait." And on the campaign Ad front, McCain has done reasonably well in capitalizing on perceived missteps from the Obama campaign, going on the attack, and then getting response ads out quickly.

But in the most important task the McCain campaign has had and still has, they have not performed up to what is required, and that failure not only gets a poor performance grade, it also bodes poorly for victory in November if McCain does not improve his grades. And what task is that - simply the task of continuing and emphatically making the case that not only is McCain not a third term for George Bush, but that McCain is also a change agent who can bring the American people the kind of change they really need.

For a couple of weeks, the McCain campaign actually seized the momentum on "change" as the Sarah Palin choice enabled them to assert that they would really bring change to Washington. But it seems as if McCain is still reluctant to openly break with George Bush and make a point of saying that he not only opposed many Bush administration policies in the past, but that he has, by choice, elected to go a very different route than President Bush and, in fact, rejects the path of the Bush administration. I simply do not believe he can skate on that issue to Election Day. He will have to make a choice, and if he doesn't, the American people will make that choice for him.

For Barack Obama, it is actually easier to grade his performance. He is simply "off message," and in an environment where he should have a 10 to 15 point lead (even with the race issue), this election is still a toss-up both overall and in most of the key swing states. That is not good.

I have heard many Obama supporters in the media suggest that he was going to "break out" in mid September just like Ronald Reagan broke out in September of 1980 after being even or behind in the polls because the American people just weren't sure about him. Well, September is almost over, and there clearly is no sign yet of any national voter "break out" to Obama taking place, although the economic bail-out crisis might provide a launch for that occurrence.

And how is he "off message." As James Carville used to tell Bill Clinton in 1992, "it's the economy stupid" - regardless of what issue the other side would bring up, and so it is (although a bit more complicated) for Barack Obama in 2008. The fact is, every day that Barack Obama engages Sarah Palin directly in comments and criticisms is not only a day that he actually elevates her stature, it is also a day that John McCain wins. Why? Because for that day, McCain does not have to address the issues where he is weakest against Barack Obama.

Like a laser beam, Obama should be spending every day linking John McCain with George Bush, not linking him with Sarah Palin. And Obama should be highlighting every major problem the American people face today and then insisting that whatever the McCain solution is, it is still nothing more than a continuation of the George Bush Presidency. He has too often strayed from that approach, and I think that hurts his ultimate prospects as well.

And missteps seem to cancel each other out on both sides. McCain's statement about the "fundamentals of the American economy remaining strong" (even though there's some truth there) was a problem for him, and it was somewhat canceled out by VP choice Joe Biden's statement about it being "patriotic for wealthier Americans to pay more taxes." But on this one Obama gets the better grade. And the "lipstick on a pig" comment was simply counterproductive and again, off message. On this one, Obama gets the poorer grade.

And in the midst of one of the greatest financial and economic challenges our country has ever faced, it seems both candidates have been drowned out or at least overshadowed as other players have moved to the forefront - not President Bush, as he is seemingly being ignored entirely, but rather Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who may be running the country, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is like Paulson's Secretary of Defense. But the current economic crisis has broken the downturn in the Obama momentum and given him a break and a new boost that he could not have provided himself - this despite the fact that neither candidate has really laid out a formidable plan to deal with the crisis, and both McCain and Biden initially opposed the bail-out a day or two before they had to switch their positions. In fact, if you want to know how weak both candidates have been on really articulating a specific and concise plan of action, just listen to how forceful, specific and knowledgeable New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg sounded last Sunday on Meet The Press as he evaluated the current economic mess.

Nevertheless, this crisis undoubtedly helps Barack Obama. When the crisis first broke, the same James Carville we quoted earlier said on CNN that "September 15th will go down as the day that any chance John McCain had to be elected President vanished in thin air." I don't think it's quite that bad or certain, and there are still many concerns and issues that could deny the White House to Barack Obama, but there is some validation for Carville's comments as a just breaking ABC poll shows that in the week since the economic crisis exploded, the race has been transformed from McCain having a two point lead to Obama now having a nine point lead.

For Obama, this crisis has been a gift - politically. But he better start coming up with more specifics than just complaining about CEO compensation and what the Bush administration did wrong. We need to know what politicians going forward are going to do right. And McCain will have to find a way to somehow transfer his advantage in perception about experience and leadership in national security and foreign policy into an assertion that this crisis is so serious that the same level of experience and demonstrated leadership Americans give him credit for in other areas will be required to fix this one. No small task - for either of them.

And finally, the last failing grade must be enthusiastically presented to the media. Frankly, the media has been so determined to destroy Sarah Palin with an "every one wants to be the first to succeed in "gotcha" and bring her down approach that if I were the McCain strategists, I would do exactly what they are doing - keep her paired with McCain on the campaign trail and limit her press interviews. If I'm doomed and fated to walk into a Lion's Den of hungry lions and a couple of angry alligators as well, then I'm going to make you throw me in there - I'd be stupid to just waltz on in there on my own. But no surprise here as the general media is determined to help elect Barack Obama President of the United States. That's fine with me - but just be honest about it and stop any pretense that you are giving both candidates fair and equal coverage and treatment. Another "F" midterm grade.

The second half of the course Term is always the most important. As we now enter the Debate phase of the second half of the Term, let's hope the questions are not about Jeremiah Wright, Alaska Trooper Gate, and "how do you personally feel about your opponent." Both candidates and the media now need to elevate the level of discourse. If they don't, forget the midterms -- we all fail the course!

Carl Jeffers is a Los Angeles-and Seattle based columnist, TV political analyst, radio talk show host and lecturer. E-mail: [e-mail]

Comments

[luvangelHussein330]

Wow you need to keep up...maybe you were spending way to much time writting this instead of paying attention.­..Obama hasn't talked about Abuse of power barbie hardly at all unless he is asked about her in interview and it was never in the context of linking them two together. All I've heard is Obama linking Bush and mccain together aliong with palin. Obama and his campaign are natoriious for staying on message. McCain is the one his base needs to be worried about. Also where were you last week when Obama gave his five point speech last week: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlZt5iN96iM and on Friday http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPfaVV6mrI0
and then again yesterday:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okJuQwsKYG0

[milo h minderbinder]

Odd post.

Obama rarely mentions Palin at this point, he's doing exactly what you recommend already - focusing on McCain and the issues. And the press is ignoring her more and more as well, with the exception of savaging her yesterday.

And it baffles me that you can defend the "fundamentals are strong" comment AT ALL, much less insist that Obama/Biden has made more damning comments during that period.

Obama has held a modest but consistent lead for much of the race - insisting on doom and gloom based on overhype like "he should have pulled away!" or "he should be up 15" is bashing him for someone else's unrealistic expectations, not his own problems.

[chessman]

Et tu, Brute, et tu?

I thought I heard this on Hannity the other day.

Give me a break - the gift is the crisis.

[eshalom]

Mr. Jeffers,

How refreshing to read a post that fairly and objectively evaluates the performances of the candidates and even calls the media to account for its blatant bias toward Obama and its all out effort to destroy Sarah Palin. The Democratic party elite and its good old boys in the media handed the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama while doing their best to shove Hillary Clinton out of the race. They didn't succeed in destroying Hillary Clinton; today, she's one of the most respected people in American, if not the world. And they will not succeed in destroying Sarah Palin, even with the help of every immature, mindless member of Obama's netroots flock attacking her.

[arglebargle]

Mr. Jeffers, I'm not sure what coverage you're watching, but Obama has not referred directly to Palin in at least a week (and no, "lipstick on a pig" doesn't count). He's talking about the economy and locating its woes in Bush policy CONSTANTLY.

And this: "...the general media is determined to elect Barack Obama President of the United States" shows your own bias pretty clearly.

Thanks for playing. To the Lanny Davis-Earl Ofari Hutchinson dustheap with ya.

[2bad]

With all due respect Mr. Jeffers, you're wrong! This is one of the most unusual times in the history of this country. Look at the two candidates for president. Look at the radically grim economic mess that has befallen the country. And, up until the last few days, there has been an "anybody but the black guy" mentality from a lot of Americans. Now that they see this isn't simply about cultural and social issues, some of them are starting to come around. Mr. Obama is doing as well as can be expected under the circumstances. Even the most seasoned financial gurus are having trouble coming up with a definitive answer to the economic crisis.

[CitizenE]

McCain fails because his ad campaign a couple weeks back sank so far into the gutter; then that sordid impression was followed up with McCain's day to day stumbling around. Palin actually is the only reason SS McCain, which may yet find Captain Queeg blowing his stack irremedially before election day, has not crashed and burned. There are many reasons for this, not the least of which is that she appears to be the last sucker among the four of them to become a politician, which helps her with a good portion of the electorate who, as a result of decades of anti government propaganda from the the right, are more alienated by politicians than Wall Street.
Obama should get more than an F, though he appears to stall and stop. There is a lot of feinting in his operation, but he does appear to have the long haul in mind always; he jabs away, and every once in a while lands a big punch. He's not as slick as Clinton, and that hurts him campaigning, but it might well make him a better President at a time when our populace and the world needs someone great. Obama is unfinished: I'd give him a C+ with potential to do much better; McCain will have his ups and downs, but if he has another two weeks like the previous two anywhere near the end, he's chump change.

[Softnsweet]

I don't agree with your post!