It is raining outside right now. And coming down with the rain are measurable -- if trace -- quantities of radioisotopes from Japan's crippled nuclear reactors. What we are being exposed to in California today is not a reflection of the current situation in Japan, though. These winds left Japan right after the first radiation releases, and the situation has gotten significantly worse in the past four days. We are not yet at Chernobyl levels, but this is obviously much worse than Three Mile Island.
But while we don't know the most important thing -- how bad is this going to get -- we already know some very disturbing things -- things that go far beyond the reality that an 8.9 earthquake followed by a tsunami is going to create enormous problems.
First, we know that the nuclear industry and its associated government regulators, in both Japan and the U.S., have not learned to tell the truth. Communications are opaque, intended to soothe not inform, to conceal, not reveal. What Admiral Hyman Rickover once called "the nuclear priesthood" is still celebrating its rituals in a language that the rest of us are not intended to understand.
As I previously blogged, early last Sunday morning, a colleague who had previously managed TVA's Browns Ferry nuclear power plant, the twin to the Japanese reactors, emailed me a detailed description of what had actually happened at Fukushima Daiichi. His email predicted precisely the events that were confirmed two days later by the Japanese authorities as having happened -- so they obviously knew the truth on Sunday. But what did they say? As late as Monday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yuko Edano said, "I have received reports that the containment vessel is sound. I understand that there is little possibility that radioactive materials are being released in large amounts."
The media have reported that all over Japan the public is enraged at their inability to get straightforward information from their own government and from Tokyo Electric. The International Atomic Energy Commission is still, today, asking the Japanese government to provide more information.
This pattern of covering up bungled safety errors has long characterized the Japanese nuclear complex, with a very cozy insider relationship between the government and the nuclear industry.
On Wednesday, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chair Gregory Jaczko told Congress that things were much worse than the Japanese were admitting. Once again, the Japanese eventually had to concede that Jaczko was right. They admitted that they might have to entomb the reactors in concrete, the measure finally taken at Chernobyl -- but one that worked only after extraordinary amounts of radiation had been released and, by some studies, the lifespans of one million people shortened.
But while the NRC's Jaczko on Tuesday was willing to describe far more of what was happening in Japan than the Japanese themselves, U.S. nuclear authorities are clearly unable or unwilling to tell us the truth about our own risks. On March 13 -- when the magnitude of the radiation releases to come was obviously a complete mystery -- the NRC pledged that "Hawaii, Alaska, the U.S. Territories and the U.S. West Coast are not expected to experience any harmful levels of radiation." When the first bits of radiation arrived in the U.S. today, health officials in Los Angeles said "Our position has not changed: We still do not expect to see an increase in harmful levels of radiation in California."
What is lacking in all of this are any simple explanation of what the authorities are defining as "harmful," what the possible range of exposures are, and what potential level of releases from Fukushima Daiichi are being taken into account. How bad a scenario are they considering? The information that is being released is unhelpful and won't enable anyone to judge their actual risk. One expert said, intending to be reassuring, that the level being experienced in California was only "one microsievert", about 1/100th of the exposure from a chest X-ray. But one microsievert over what period of time? A week? A day? An hour? A minute? A microsievert a minute is equivalent to a chest X-Ray every two hours -- a very big deal indeed.
The second thing that the crisis reveals is that the nuclear energy endeavor is chock full of what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls "Black Swans": high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations. Taleb argues that history is much more dominated than we understand by such Black Swans, things that we have a hard time imagining could happen (just as we expect a swan to be white) until we encounter them, after which we explain them as "just too improbable to have been predicted." Chernobyl and Three Mile Island were fundamentally different than Fukushima Daiichi. In both the Ukraine and Pennsylvania, a single reactor encountered serious operational problems on its own, and plant operators reacted improperly to control them. The reactors and their operators failed to behave as expected.
Here there is no evidence whatsoever of any internal or operator failure in the reactors -- yet we have six nuclear reactors in a state of partial meltdown. The reactors themselves were not destroyed, so far as we know, or even damaged, by the earthquake and the tsunami (which led some nuclear advocates to argue that the disaster was actually proof of the safety of nuclear power!). What happened instead was an unanticipated system failure -- the tsunami took out the back-up power system, after the earthquake had triggered the automatic shut-down of the reactor itself and the electricity it generates. The reactor shut-down system performed perfectly -- if there had been earthquake damage the reactor would have been stopped. What the designers failed to take into account, however, was that a nuclear power plant deprived of both its own primary power and its back-up power burns itself up -- automatically -- because none of its cooling systems can operate without power. Now this is a design problem that can be remedied by providing secure and redundant back-up power. But that doesn't mean that there are not other -- perhaps many other -- Black Swans waiting to provide ugly surprises for the nuclear energy industry.
There is simply no reason to think that Fukushima is the last unanticipated design flaw in the nuclear complex. Or that the next one will not be even worse, just as the really bad savings-and-loan crisis in the U.S., the first Black Swan triggered by financial market deregulation, was followed by the vastly worse mortgage meltdown of 2008. Nuclear power is a Black Swan problem not because failure is frequent -- it's not -- but because the magnitude of failure can be intolerable.
The third staggering lesson is that those who are dedicated to a nuclear future are much less dedicated to making that future safe, even when they know about a problem. You could say that the nuclear industry, nuclear regulators and nuclear advocates can't even handle ordinary white swans. In the United States, on March 15 a federal court turned down an appeal by environmentalists that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission should require the Indian Point Nuclear Power plant to meet the commission's own standards for the ability of control cables in a plant to withstand a fire. Indian Point's cables will withstand only half the fire they are supposed to, somethign the commission has known about for six years. But instead of asking Entergy Corporation, which operates the plant, to upgrade its wiring, the commission simply gave it a waiver -- and the Court upheld this decision!
The same day, a coalition of state Attorneys General was forced to sue the NRC, because it is now proposing to allow nuclear power plants to store their high-level spent fuel rods -- the same rods that caused the majority of the problem at one of the Japanese reactors -- on site, for 60 years after the reactor itself is shut down -- without any environmental review! In issuing the policy, the NRC stunningly found that storing this waste for 60 years at more than 100 plants raised no significant safety or environmental issues.
And how have the media covered here in the U.S. covered the disaster in Japan? It's been a staggering example of the spin-room at work. Those reporters who are actually in Japan, reporting on the situation, have done the best job possible with the inadequate and inaccurate information that they have been able to get. But those doing analysis, particularly analysis on what the disaster means for other nuclear facilities, have simply parroted the nuclear industry's fact sheets -- "nothing to worry about here." First the reactors were not going to melt down. Then, even if they did melt down, no one was going to get hurt. Then, even if people are going to get hurt, it can't happen here. Then, even if it might happen here, it won't be as bad as you think. Media Matters has provided a good snapshot of the right-wing campaign to keep nuclear power's reputation alive and safe.
But in this post I'll leave the last word to Rush Limbaugh, who actually thinks it is funny that the tsunami and nuclear crisis hit Japan -- it's payback for the Prius:
"The Japanese have done so much to save the planet.... They've given us the Prius. Even now, refugees are still recycling their garbage, and yet Gaia levels them [laughs], just wipes them out. Wipes out their nuclear plants, all kinds of radiation. What kind of payback is this?"
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Dr. Jon LaPook: Radioactive Plume? The Coast Is Clear
Robert Reich: As the Global Economy Trembles, Our Nation's Capitol Fiddles
Daniel Wagner: Japan's Unsavory Options
Richard (RJ) Eskow: Fukushima USA: Hell or High Water
I would like to hear more analysis of the particle concentration in our air and water. Does anyone know what happens biologically if you consume a few hundred of these particles a day? Yes, it's soluble like Potassium and its cleared "quickly" through the renal system, but how quickly, and what damage occurs in the meantime?
Hangar 25 at the Bob Hope Airport in Los Angeles now boasts a solar system that produces 400,000 kilowatts a year of renewable energy. In addition, the hangar is reducing its water use, using evaporative coolers that don’t require refrigerant cooling and employing fans that will recirculate the cool air during hot days.
http://www.worldinteriordesignnetwork.com/news/hangar_25_at_bob_hope_airport_in_california_gets_leed_certification_110316/
Ventura County-Based Clean Energy Firm Receives Certification
Power-One, Inc. received an important safety and performance standards certification from an international testing firm. CSA International approved Power-One’s new three-phase string inverter for solar plants for use in North America. The company currently sells a three-phase inverter in Europe.
http://www.iewy.com/19891-power-one-launches-three-phase-string-inverter-for-the-north-american-market.html
LA Times: Renewable Energy is Now an Economic Goldmine
In the past decade, renewables have jumped from being a niche industry to a mainstream economic powerhouse, according to a report published by Clean Edge, Inc. The number of hybrid vehicles has increased more than one hundred-fold, and the solar energy market has grown by 40 percent per year from 2000 to 2010. Wind saw a comparable increase, growing 30 percent each year from $4.5 billion to $60.5 billion.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/tiffany-hsu/
Oh -- and every nuclear accident is the LAST one. Guaranteed! After all, we've learned SO MUCH from this one, there'll never be another!
I guess all those radioactive particles just disappeared into thin air on the 19th and 20th huh?
And they will continue to disappear into thin air for the foreseeable future I bet.
That doesn't mean that the danger of airborne radioactive particles was all made up, or that it won't return if things get out of hand again. It also doesn't mean that the site itself is safe, or that groundwater isn't being contaminated,
Ask your many fans to confirm this.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-jon-lapook/radiation-california_b_837951.html
The radioactive plumes traveled on the winds and wiped out Provo, Salt Lake City, Denver, Omaha, and Des Moines. Crops were devastated and still won't grow. The radiation seeped into the water table and poisoned much of the midwest and even into Ohio and Indiana. Today, millions of cases of leukemia, bone cancer, lymphoma and lung cancer are stark reminders of the surging incidence of setting off these megaton monsters. The wildlife that managed to survive the initial radiation have spawned horrible mutations that are the sole living creatures (except cockroaches) in most of the states bordering NV. Of course, the radiation released is but a trace percentage of what we can expect to receive from the insidious cloud of death headed our way from Japan. God have mercy on our poor souls.
Your profound ignorance regarding the biological effects of ionizing radiation and your insensitive mockery of the victims, your unsupported minimizing the distribution of fallout from the weapons testing in Nevada and your utter lack of knowledge on the subject of nuclear matters civilian and military reveals the extent to which paid nuclear shills will go to sell their lethal technology wholly based on lies and misinformation.
http://ehp03.niehs.nih.gov/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1289%2Fehp.110-a404
http://www.yuccamountain.org/julie.htm
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2004/05/24_keever_origins-nuclear-holocaust.htm
http://www.ieer.org/comments/beir/beir7pressrel.html
http://www.burtongoldberg.com/x-rays-cause-cancer-heart-disease.html
http://www.ratical.org/radiation/CNR/RMP/heartCT.html
http://www.ratical.com/radiation/CNR/JWGcv.html
http://www.ratical.org/radiation/CNR/PP/#TOC
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus have been burdened with the continuing and substantial decontamination and health care costs of the Chernobyl accident. More than fifty deaths are directly attributed to the accident, all among the reactor staff and emergency workers. Estimates of the total number of deaths attributable to the accident vary enormously, from possibly 4,000 to close to a million.[4][5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster
I am flagging you because I believe this comment to be a shameless act of self promotion for personal business reasons and not a comment related to the discussion at hand.
I want to thank Mr. Pope for answering a question that quite frankly puzzled me also!
Why would our government and the Japanese government hide information from us?
Could it be there are to many self serving hacks out there that would think nothing of panicking people?
Mr Carl Pope is in the same class as Rush! The only difference is Rush does it for the money Mr. Pope likes to panic people for the emotional rush!
Which is worse?
Also, why do you think it's better for Limbaugh to stir people up for money than it is for Mr. Pope to stir people up in the course of a quest for the truth -- or, as you call it, an "emotional rush"?
Radiation comes from everywhere!
We always talked in REM's and this was 30 years ago when I worked in that industry but to but it in perspective sleeping every night next to your spouse you exposed them to about 2 REM's per year.
Now if you do what the author here has done and decide it wasn't for a year but you exposed your spouse to 2 REM/minute this would expose her to an equivalent of an Chest X-Ray every 12 hours or so! What are you thinking exposing your spouse to the equivalent of an chest X-Ray every 12 hours?
The author is in a position to know better so I have to assume he is wanting to panic people. Rush - Pope different sides of the same coin!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/19/west-coast-radiation-test_n_837947.html?ir=Green
And as much as I distrust the oil and gas industry, that distrust pales in comparison to the nuclear industry. I’m not going to spin conspiracy theories as I hate them, but this is one industry you cannot trust. They are capable of everything and anything and will spin it in the name of security, they’re a law unto themselves. Research it yourself.
The events in Japan are a bigger threat to their industry than even Chernobyl, which was put down to faulty Russian technology and training. The world now knows there’s no such thing as safe nuclear power, not when this can happen to the normally proficient Japanese.
Make no mistake, as Japanese nuclear plants belch contaminated smoke, the rest of us are being subjected to a different kind of smokescreen.
Chernobyl blew up because there was NO containment vessel. I'd say that was 'faulty technology'. 40 people died as a result. Read the UN report.
It's ironic most of them are a combination of anti-technology but firmly believe that new green technology will save us!
They have faith at a level that makes the Pope envious!
But heaven help you having them balance your check book!
I am a high tech lover, but I am a big believer in Risk Management. The worst case scenarios with Nuclear are much greater than their long term benefits to a community. The amount of fertile farmland in Japan that will be poluted for hundreds of years because of this accident can't outweigh the few decades that Nuclear plant powered Japan.