Why Democrats Should Be Grateful For A Prolonged Primary Process

People have discussed lots of things about the Democratic primaries and the contest between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton: change vs. experience, demographics, delegates and superdelegates, media bias, the historic nature of the race and the identities of the candidates, for example. More than anything else, perhaps, I hear and read discussions about why one of the candidates, nearly always Senator Clinton, should bow out and give the party's nomination to Senator Obama "for the good of the party." I have a problem with that advice for a number of reasons.

First, where were those people months ago when Senator Clinton had a huge lead in the polls and seemed to be on her way to the nomination, free of serious obstacles, and Senator Obama got into the race? Did people tell him to stay out of the race "for the good of the party"?

Second, isn't the primary process supposed to be for the purpose of choosing the party's nominee? We've all seen the math. Apparently neither candidate can expect to win sufficient delegates to earn the nomination. Which means the nomination will come down to other factors. I would argue that Senator Clinton can make a strong case why she should be the nominee -- as can Senator Obama. But there is no justifiable reason for one of the candidates to throw in the towel unnecessarily.

I know there are those who argue that a protracted primary season is bad for the party. That somehow the fact that the Republicans have already chosen John McCain as their party's standard bearer should send shivers of fear down our collective spines and we have to start the general election campaign immediately. Ridiculous.

The truth is that the contest between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama has been the best thing to happen to the Democratic party in years, with the possible exception of the way the party has been united in its contempt for George W. Bush. The Clinton-Obama campaign has succeeded in bringing out tens of millions of Democratic voters and igniting more interest in Democratic politics than anything in memory. There are record turnouts in primaries everywhere. Fundraising records are being smashed every month by Democrats -- something almost unheard of previously. The debates between Clinton and Obama are ratings winners for the cable networks. In short, this race is good for the Democratic party. It will be good for the eventual nominee and it's getting the ideas of the Democratic party into every living room in America.

Just thinking about an eight-month general election campaign with John McCain can put me to sleep. I honestly think that whoever the Democratic candidate is, he or she will win in November. All of the excitement in this election is with the Democrats right now. Don't lull it to sleep by starting the campaign with McCain too early.

When I hear 20-year-old "Democratic Strategists" (how do they get these jobs?) on TV predicting doom and gloom if the primaries continue all the way to June, I can't help rolling my eyes. They seem to be missing the big picture. The primaries are giving people a chance to know the candidates and express their opinions. And this time around, Democrats (and independents and even some Republicans) are expressing opinions about two Democratic candidates in droves. They can't get enough of this race. Let it continue without the calls for one candidate or the other to get out. Make the most of the excitement people are feeling for these great candidates. Bring people to the party. Don't cut it short.

Comments

[BitJam]

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First, where were those people months ago when Senator Clinton had a huge lead in the polls

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Hello? Clinton has never led in the polls that matter, the ones that are decided in the voting booth. In fact, last night will be the very first time she won more delegates than Obama in any day of the election. But her "huge victory" last night will net her fewer delegates than Obama got on February 19th from Wisconsin and Hawaii.


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The truth is that the contest between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama has been the best thing to happen to the Democratic party in years, ...

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Excuse me? Try reading some of the comment threads on the Huffington Post. The longer this battle goes on, the more alienated each side is becoming and the harder and longer it is going to take to unite together for the battles in November. Because it is not just the battle for the presidency, it is also the battle for winning more seats in the House and the Senate.


You say you've seen the math. Before last night, Clinton needed to win 16% more of the remaining delegates just to break even. That meant winning 50 more delegates than Obama last night just to be on track of catching up. But instead she only netted about 10 extra delegates which means she now needs to win the 12 remaining contests with 23% margins.


It is clear she can't win the pledged delegate race. She won by a margin of less than 4% last night. If she continues to "win" like that she will be behind by over 100 pledged delegates when the primaries are over. Not even seating the unfair results from MI and Florida would be enough to allow her to overcome this deficit. Therefore she would need the superdelegates to overturn the will of the people and hand her the nomination on a silver platter. Do you honestly believe that would be for the good of the party?


She cannot win without tearing the party apart. Last night she demonstrated that she can only eek out wins in state races by launching negative attacks against Obama. All signs indicate that she is planning to continue to attack Obama to the benefit of John McCain for as long as she is in the race. This too is bad for the Democratic party. Do you really think that giving Republicans the chance to play back her attack ads against Obama in November would be good for the Democratic party?


It is simple. If she stops with the lies, distortions, and smears against Obama then she can stay in the race. But if she continues sabotaging the Democratic party the way she needed to to eek out wins yesterday then the superdelegates are going to perform their job and do what is best for the Democratic party. I hope they can stop Clinton before she does even more damage.

[Anderkoo]

Thanks -- I agree heartily and made similar points about a week ago: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gene-koo/extended-primary-season-c_b_88614.html

[MShaughn]

This article misses the point, I think. Whether Hillary should continue hinges on three questions.

1) Does Hillary have a plausible chance to overtake Obama in delegates?

Not really. In fact, she is much worse off today than she was yesterday. She put no real dent in his lead and there are now fewer states in which she can make up ground.

2) Is it plausible that superdelegates will tip the race to her if she is behind after voting is done?

Not really. By rule they could, but there is a significant consensus developing that such an outcome would be disastrous for the party. Thus, superdelegates who do not think she can win and who will not tip the race to her should come out now for Obama.

3) Will continuing the race provide any practical or political benefit for Hillary or for the party?

Yes and no. Hillary can leverage her position to forward her own policy priorities or to secure a position in the administration, perhaps VP. For the party, not so much. Only bad things can happen from an expensive, probably negative campaign dragging on during which McCain has free reign to run against distracted opponents.