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7 Movies and a Regression Model to Predict How Austenland Will Impact Weddings

08/27/2013 10:29 am ET | Updated Oct 27, 2013

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If there's any book that influenced the way I've conducted myself in relationships, it is Pride and Prejudice. I apologize to all the men I've been sarcastic and mean to. I thought that's how you endear yourself to people.

And while Jane Austen has provided some (mis)guidance on relationships and some strong critique on societal pressure, we in the world of weddings want to know one thing: Will grooms start going down the aisle in breeches? Or put another way, will this movie impact wedding trends?

Our statistics professors will either be happy or horrified that we have built a regression model (see data set below) on how movies have impacted wedding trends using box office numbers as our x variable and Google search volume with the keyword "movie + wedding" as a proxy for wedding impact. We also kept things simple and did not factor in year movie was released or other variables that also makes sense. We are adding a caveat that a data set of 7 is not very significant. But, to make things more fun, we added in qualitative inputs from an expert on askweddingplanning.com, as well as PennyandMary.com's resident bride-to-be and wedding geek, Shannon Foster.

1. Alice in Wonderland
Box Office: $334,191,110
Wedding Popularity Score: 60
Favorite Trends: Teacups, Pastel colors

2. Twilight
Box Office: $292,324,737
Wedding Popularity Score: 100
Favorite Trends: Low-back dresses, Forest venues

3. Tangled
Box Office: $200,821,936
Wedding Popularity Score: 21
Favorite Trends: Flowers in hair, Releasing lanterns

4. Snow White
Box Office: $155,332,381
Wedding Popularity Score: 1
Favorite Trends: Bewitching wedding dresses

5. Les Miserables
Box Office: $148,809,770
Wedding Popularity Score: 5
Favorite Trends: Decaying but romantic vintage, Austerity?

6. Gatsby
Box Office: 144,737,448
Wedding Popularity Score: 61
Favorite Trends: Long pearls, 1920's wedding dresses

7. Hunger Games
Box Office: 408,010,692
Wedding Popularity Score: 3
Favorite Trends: Lovestruck arrows

Our prediction:

We think Austenland will have similar box office success as Twilight and Gatsby because a. Stephenie Meyer of Twilight is part of the Austenland team, and b. Austenland is based on a book and has period scenes similar to Gatsby.

Update: Austenland opening weekend sales around $40,000, a bit far off from Gatsby's $50,000,000 box office sales. However Austenland was only released in 4 theatres, and we expect more pickups especially since Austen is trending in Google.

"We've seen wedding trends come when the same style is reiterated in several movies or shows," Shannon also added. "For instance, 1920s glamour trended after we saw influences from both The Great Gatsby and Downton Abbey, and edgy wedding dresses gained more visibility after both Snow White and The Huntsman and Mirror Mirror were released." In her opinion, if similar feminine Jane Austen trends are repeated in upcoming movies, Austenland will spearhead a shift in wedding trends.

Using both movies' average box office numbers, Austenland's wedding popularity score is 34. This makes it more impactful than Hunger Games, Les Miserables, Snow White, and Tangled, but less so than the rest.

One of our experts Sheffield MacIntyre of BackInStyle also weighed in, "The Jane Austen look will have a longer run because I think there is beginning to be a general shift in wedding fashion. Brides are moving away from the strapless ball gown to something more feminine, demure, and covered up."

No bold forecast on breeches.

If you want to geek out with us, below are our sources. Feel free to comment, modify our model, or just like and share this article.