I am, like many, disappointed by the lack of debate about nonmilitary alternatives to the situation in Libya. No Fly Zones are an extremely risky venture, have no current legal basis, and may backfire.
Before any military action is contemplated, there are other steps available to put pressure on Gaddafi's regime to step down. These are additional to the welcome steps imposed by the UN Security Council this weekend in resolution 1970: ICC referral, assets freeze, travel bans etc..
These are ideas for discussion, but discussion followed by deliberate action is what's needed right now. A lot of these ideas flow from my -- very mixed -- experience of working on sanctions on Iraq and indeed Libya (when the UN imposed sanctions to get Libya to hand over the Lockerbie accused), as well as some recent thinking about so-called "smart sanctions". I should add that in this debate I bow to Libyans on the ground -- their views on what's needed should be heeded very carefully.
1. Establishment of an escrow account for Libyan oil revenues: this would require further UNSC chapter VII authorization. At present, it appears that all oil revenues, including from oil produced from rebel-held areas, flows to the Libyan government. All payments should instead be paid into a UN-run escrow account, the proceeds of which would be released as soon as a representative government is established in Libya. While the account is in operation, proceeds might in the interim be used for humanitarian purposes in rebel-held areas or to aid refugees. This would be a short-term measure to exert maximum pressure on the regime. My suspicion is that governments are not discussing this for fear of the effect on oil prices (this is uppermost in US debate in particular). To deal with this problem, Saudi Arabia should be asked to make very public commitments to increase its daily production to cover any shortfall of Libyan production.
2. Listing all Libyan personnel involved in repression for sanction under SCR 1970. Paras 22-23 of this resolution encourage states to nominate individuals to whom the asset freeze and travel ban would apply. At the moment, the list is very short and comprises only prominent regime members. The UN or Security Council members should make public this encouragement to Libyans on the ground to nominate members of the security forces. Why not publish an email address for such nominations or set up a wiki for Libyans to compile evidence? I realize the potential downsides of this, but the point would primarily be to act as a deterrent. There is also nothing to stop individual states declaring that those named under paras 22-23 will be subject to these measures in perpetuity. For a start, why not nominate all Libyan diplomats who have not defected for these sanctions? Why not take a list of all senior Libyan army officers and stick them on the list too?
3. Seek public declarations from all commercial companies that they will not do business with the Gadhaffi regime. The admirable folks in the Genocide Intervention Network have already begun campaigning for this and have secured several such commitments. I see no reason why governments, such as the US and UK, should not demand such commitments of companies based in their respective countries. Naming and shaming has considerable effect on the recalcitrant.
4. Immediately position monitoring units on all borders and a naval blockade to ensure that the military embargo under UNSCR 1970 is enforced, and that regime members under ICC investigation or subject to paras 22-23 of UNSCR 1970 do not escape. This could be implemented now, and does not in my view require further Security Council authority. An air blockade to the same effect might also be considered.
5. Electronic jamming of all regime communications; interference with internet communications, Stuxnet-like attacks on regime IT infrastructure. I hope that US etc are already trying to do this. If not, they should be.
6. Provide immediate and substantial humanitarian assistance in rebel-held areas.
7. Set up publicly accessible websites using satellite and other reconnaissance data to inform anti-Gaddafi forces of the disposition of regime military and irregular units. Or, get the data to them more covertly using encrypted satphones etc... (thanks @racionalisimo for that one).
8. Consider making the Libyan currency non-convertible (thanks to @stream47 for this idea). I'm no expert on this so list this for consideration only. Another idea is to impose Swift banking sanctions to freeze all financial transactions beyond the assets freeze imposed in SCR1970. The problem with assets freezes is that it's too easy these days for individuals/regimes to hide money. Tracking these monies is a major forensic effort, and can take time.
These are only eight ideas. I am sure there are others. I am grateful to various friends on Twitter for their suggestions. If you have additional ideas, please feel free to send them to me @carneross.
Follow Carne Ross on Twitter: www.twitter.com/carneross
Malou Innocent: Leaving Libya Well Enough Alone
Peter Ochs, Ph.D.: These Libyan Religious Scholars are My Friends Whether or Not They Want to Be
Yes, it would present a somewhat higher level of danger to the pilots, but don't we have unmanned aircraft we're now using in Afghanistan? And wouldn't that type of aircraft be extremely effective in the desert environment of Libya?
Yes, we can make a bunch of ponderous diplomatic and financial moves that make us feel better and give us grounds for praising our sober legality. But if we want Qaddafi out, we'd better think of some actions we can live with that will cripple his armor and air force, and possibly reduce the ranks of his foreign fighters. Fast. These could range from cruise missiles to effective threats directed at his officer corps. If any and all moves along these lines are infeasible in the near future, we've got nothing.
Is there some probability of failure, backfire, unpredictable consequences? For sure -- but the same risks arise with inaction.
It would have been better had you begun with items 4 to 7. The current item 1, getting Saudi Arabia to commit to increased production, is a show-stopper. For one thing, we do not know if the Saudi regime will continue and for how long. It could well fall, almost overnight, with 5000 scampering little princes falling over themselves on their way to some other place. For another, there is widespread suspicion that the Saudis are lying about their capacity for increased production.
Are we equally concerned with the Congo, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Somolia, Uganda, Gaza ..... etc, ?
What is it that makes Libya so special ?
the alternative government in benghazi can boost its credibility by making a promise to outlaw torture
the non-interference principle has allready been violated by nations or companies when they trade with gadaffi and other dictators ; trading with gadafffi is interference with the people's right to a decent government , so may as well interfere { intervene] in the right direction and help the alternative government
i would ask Blackwater to enter the fight against gadhaffi for FREE, GRATIS [ maybe a payment from oil revenues later ]; ordinaryly i dont like blackwater and would abolish such mercenaries ; so send them into Tripoli to get rid of as many mercenaries on both sides as possible in a good cause..... ditto Ivory Coast...send a thief to catch a theif
the main objective should be establishing a government which abolishes gestapo and can enforce a ban on torture
i would have airlifted commandos [ or Blackwater which technically is not interference from the US government] to attack gadaffis headquarters ; for sure US spy satellites know where gadaffi is
the only truly non-violent intervention which works and works immediately is permanent funding for a group of 10 000 yogic flyers
Since President Obama has declared the Gaddafi government "illegitimate", who is the legitimate government? The National Council in Bengazi has asked for a "no fly" zone (but not boots on the ground.) The United States should recognise the Council and grant this legitimate request.
Doing all the nonmilitary options will only result in a bloody stalemate. Someone needs to put their finger on the scale.
I hear only a few voices around reminding us of what used to be the International Law: Sovereignty, territorial integrity, peaceful coexistence! Theoretically, it is still valid.
(Unfortunately, in the last 20 years, these postulates are often simply ignored!)
So: Both, rebels and Gaddafi loyalist are Libyans, and should solve this situation... by fighting or talking...up to them...
A question: On the base of what we (or China or Russia or Martians), have right to decide what side is legal and right!!! It's not our call!!!!
Finally, to remind all of us::
Libya is the ONLY Arab and African country in which MOST of the national wealth was used for development and directed to their people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Plus, Libya was very secular!
Finally, I hope I won't be crucified for this:
We have homeless people (Libya doesn't); we have people dying without health care (Libya doesn't); we have good kids not going to college (Libya doesn't; education is completely free up to PhD!!!); we have old people struggling to provide even for food (Libya doesn't); we go around world, bombing, killing, spinning or blatantly lying, plotting, taking what we like (Libya doesn't)...
And yes, we ALSO have more or less crazy and not crazy but stupid or mean people sitting on the top of the national "food chain," for decades, doing nothing but parasitising (Wall street, D.C.)...
So why are they rebelling?
Btw, how come that more than a million foreign workers were there - well paid and working on many really big developmental and infrastructure projects? Plus, let me give you some numbers for Libya: The highest # of mercedesbenz cars per capita; 9 million cars, average age 4; citizens: 6 million... Check BDP per capita... Would be good to check the number of Libyan students studying abroad... Btw, Libyans do not pay for electricity. It is FREE for all citizens, as is health care, education, etc..
What do you think, what forces in this world DO NOT LIKE that? And, again, it is so easy to start a conflict. For example, give me a tabloid, FB, or a tv channel, and I would be able to start a civil war in UK, or here!
Libya doesn't take what it likes? You've overlooked the entire history of Libya's involvement in Chad, which involved its claims on the Aouzou Strip in the north of Chad, not to mention it's laughable attempt to keep Idi Amin in power and it's support of Islamist ethnic cleansing in Darfur.
Further, the measures suggested are quite consistent with international law, either immediately or with Security Council sanction. All but the intel sharing involve trading with Libya or permitting key regime personnel to enter foreign countries. None, therefore, are fully internal.
I am so deeply impressed with all the points you brought (btw, we all read more or less the same media), and by your thorough knowledge about Libya, especially how people there live and think, and what really happened, and by your great ability to bend and remodel the basic postulates of the International law!!! I simply cannot say anything else but that you should have looked for a job in previous administrations!
And, I was simply shocked by "commissioned assassinations of Libyan dissidents." Yak, that is absolutely outrageous and it must be stopped and punished before other governments learn about it, and before such practice spreads all over the world!!!! Terrible!!!
But the plain, cruel fact is that this regime has brutally attacked its own people with heavy weapons, and continues to do so. If the US really wanted to help, it could've secured UN, including Russian support, for any early, quick, decisive move that would've ended this last week. It did not actually try.
The US doesn't really want to help. The question is "why"?
They may (emphasis "may") fear a backlash against a US move, but that certainly has not stopped Obama from losing every single heart and mind in Afghanistan and Pakistan via the barbaric tactics use.
No. I fear it come down to money. There are huge US/UK money and oil interests who are determined not to lose their favored positions. And THAT is what Obama responds to.
http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/02/17/live-blog-libya#feb17
The protests that started on Feb 17 were peaceful. Fighting started when security forces used deadly force on demonstrators. In fact, a quote from Human Rights Watch best characterized events ""The security forces' vicious attacks on peaceful demonstrators lay bare the reality of Muammar Gaddafi's brutality when faced with any internal dissent."
I fully understand that my statement above is against the feelings of many. I also understand some, not a lot about the legal use of force by outside countries to internal civil wars. Because of this I am not against medical supplies to both sides and even food but I am against any military action by the USA.