Is the amazing Barack Obama campaign a blitzkrieg that will sweep relentlessly to the nomination, or a bubble that will ultimately burst like a child's balloon with a pinprick?
Never before have I seen anything quite like it. The "Get Clean for Gene" campaign in 1968 by young people for Eugene McCarthy exploded onto the political scene in 1968. It then faded, due in part to the personality of the quirky, enigmatic McCarthy. The JFK campaign had it jumpers and squealers, but people didn't faint dead away at his rallies. As many have noted, Obama rallies resemble rock concerts more than political speeches. Can something that soared so high, so fast, keep up the momentum?
It's a question that needs to be asked, given the manner in which so many campaigns in the past have ended so quickly, so unpredictably.
Most recently there was Howard Dean, whose energetic cowboy yell at a political rally seemed, played over and over again on the small screen, like the howl of dementia.
And remember Ed Muskie, who got furious in 1972 when the influential, conservative publisher of the Manchester Union Leader, William Loeb, ran a story that implied that Muskie's wife took an unladylike pleasure in drinking and telling off- color jokes. An angry Muskie organized a press conference in front of the Union Leader offices and spoke during a snowstorm, calling Loeb a "gutless coward." Reporters wrote that he wept as he spoke; the Muskie campaign claimed that the water on his face was only from the falling snow, but the incident was the beginning of the end for Muskie's presidential hopes.
George Romney, father of Mitt, was considered a prime contender for the 1968 Republican presidential nomination. But in September of 67, the Michigan governor told a Detroit television newsman that he had been "brainwashed" by American generals into approving the Vietnam war effort while touring Southeast Asia in 1965. The firestorm of criticism derailed his candidacy. (Never mind that Romney turned out to be right.)
It was a single photograph of Gary Hart that demolished his presidential bid in 1988. The photo that surfaced in the press was of a beautiful blonde named Donna Rice sitting on the lap of the (very much married) senator on a yacht aptly named the Monkey Business.
Hart withdrew from the race but a few months later jumped back in, appearing on the steps of the New Hampshire State House with his wife Lee. Lee Hart looked glum and humiliated whenever she stood beside her husband, and that image certainly stayed with many women voters. Hart lost badly in the state and his campaign sputtered out.
George Allen was touted by many as a hot prospect to succeed George W. Bush for the Republicans. In the summer of 2006, running for reelection to the senate against Democrat James Webb, he was speaking to supporters in Southwest Virginia when he spotted a young man of Indian descent in the crowd.
"This fellow here, over here with the yellow shirt, macaca, or whatever his name is. He's with my opponent. He's following us around everywhere. And it's just great."
Great it wasn't for Allen, who was seen as hurling a racial epithet. Not only did his presidential hopes vanish, but so did his senate seat. Jim Webb squeaked out a win over the formerly invulnerable Allen.
But it hasn't only been missteps that caused presidential candidates to falter. Michael Dukakis probably should have not have climbed into a tank in 1988 with a weird-looking communications antenna on his head, because the resulting photograph made him look like a Martian. More serious was the negative campaign created by the late Lee Atwater, using images of black felon Willie Horton to charge that Dukakis was soft on crime. The Massachusetts governor was actually fairly conservative on law and order issues, but the menacing mien of Horton was more omnipresent on TV than the Pillsbury dough boy. Horton glared ominously into our living rooms, and was a key factor in the Dukakis defeat.
John Kerry, of course, was swift-boated out of his shot at the White House. It still amazes me that a true war hero, who turned his gunboat into enemy fire and risked his own life to save one of his crew, could have had his patriotism called into question, but it happened. The press was slow off the mark to discredit the accusations.
Today, we are already starting to see the outlines of the dirty tricks if Obama gets the nomination.
More photos of the senator in various sorts of African garb will emerge -- although Massachusetts political operative Mike Goldman had something when he suggested that the picture that surfaced recently made Obama look more like Gunga Din than like an Arab terrorist. (Rent the 1939 Cary Grant flick if you want to see what I mean.)
Republicans are already starting to call the senator Barack HUSSEIN Obama, claiming that he virtually grew up in a madrassa and is a secret Muslim. Before too long, we'll see a Photoshopped picture of him sitting beside Mohammed Atta at a flight school simulator.
We know what will happen if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. The old words have already been dredged up -- "rhymes with rich," "shrill," "calculating" "manipulative," and it's even suggested that she's a bad mommy who pimps out her daughter for political ambition
Barack is going to be hit full force with allegations that he is an alien being, (probably an Arab, probably a terrorist,) and that he regularly shreds the American flag in secret rites with Michelle in the backyard. I sincerely hope that he has never in his life set foot in a Playboy club, or the GOP will recruit that blonde who appeared in the ad aimed at congressman Harold Ford (who is African American) in his 2006 Tennessee senate bid. Ford, a bachelor, appeared at a Florida Super Bowl party packed with celebrities after the New England Patriots' win. In the sleazy Republican political ad, the comely young woman winks at the camera and coos suggestively -- "Harold -- call me!"
The ad didn't actually run the Mel Brooks tagline "Where the white women at?" but might as well have.
So far, Obama has run a brilliant campaign, and he displays a real knack for deflecting attacks with a quick wit. He appears to have gotten much more "match tough" than he was in the early debates.
But will the press, so enamored of him to date, make a sudden U-turn? "The guy walks on water," said Howard Kurtz , the Washington Post's media critic, of journalists' love affair with Barack. But the media is nothing if not fickle, and will turn on you faster than an aggrieved Rotweiller, especially if they get an attack of buyers's remorse. Like spurned lovers, the press can switch from valentines to stink bombs faster than you can say, "Sweetheart, get me rewrite."
Obama will have to have a hide like a rhinocerous and a rapid response team quicker than the Delta Force if he is indeed the nominee.
The flak has only begun to fly.
Boston University Journalism professor Caryl Rivers is the author of "Selling Anxiety: How the News Media Scare Women."
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Obama says he can win the General and Hillary can't. I don't believe him. He seems like a nice man and a good poker player. But why make him President?
My question is - why would most Americans fall for choosing a newcomer to become President? And why would we fall for Obama saying he can win the General? We have not had any time to even see him react to anything a bit? His negatives will sky rocket once a little time goes by.
He is a newcomer. Americans will not make a newcomer President. This is where the word "naive" occurs to me.
When I see Obama as a tele evangelist and somewhat of a pacifist, he isn't very likeable to me.
When I see him as a politician, like everyone else, he is less likeable.
He definately hides behind the preachers podium for a reason. It makes it harder to see him for what he is. A flawed person like all of us. But with enormous ambition.
Obama says he can win the General and Hillary can't. And you believe him? Why? Do you know this country? Do you know its people? He seems like a nice man and a good poker player. But why make him President? That seems "ignorant" to me. But this is a democracy so we get to think differently.
My question is - why would most Americans fall for choosing a newcomer to become President? And why would we fall for Obama saying he can win the General? We have not had any time to even see him react to anything a bit? His negatives will sky rocket once a little time goes by.
He is a newcomer. Americans will not make a newcomer President. This is where the word "naive" occurs to me.
The part of the "new" MSM is the free time given on tv for Hillary since she cried foul! It was not any bias as she claimed as too much was shown of her for my desire to see her. It was balanced as it could be when Barack was making news with the turn outs and she was not making much but they showed her anyway. Now that she has done her cry and tantrum she has gotten so much time if she was chanrged for it her campaign would be broke. Multiple times on cable news for her 3 am stupid mondale make over. Everytime she yelled and carried on the cable burst it's hernia to make sure she got coverage while Barck got less and less. And the tv shows fawning all over her and SNL promoting her like a damn commercial. The news and talking heads on the weekend have given her the free gift of time for promos and even Larry King's show was used to promote her. And now the night before the big vote Jon Stewert is giving her a nice little sit down for he knows better than to go after her when she has cried foul already. What makes it fair and balanced when the MSM is actually promoting her for free while Barack is given little time for news and her lies and misrepensations all over the place are given full coverage. Unfair I say. Unfair! I wish there was a fair and balanced rule like there was years ago, you give one five minutes you gotta give the opposition five minutes too. What happened that MSM has such control over what is shown especially just 24 hours before voting?
Great article. I believe that HRC feels she is unfairly treated by the press, perhaps she has a point. However, I have seen that flare of temper or "short fuse", if you will. It occurred on Meet The Press with her accusing Tim Russert of "Jesuitian" reasoning. I saw it with her comments in the last debate, about "first questions" and "pillows" for Obama to sit upon. I took that to mean, if she is asked pointed questions, especially those she doesn't like, her temper will flare. Maybe enough members of the press have been treated to that display, that they feel a little put off by her.. So her so called unfair treatment might be of her own making..By the way, I did not know that "Jesuitian" was actually a word, or if it is, it seems to attack Mr. Russert's well known Catholicism..As a fellow Catholic I think that most of us have very high regard for the intellect of the Jesuit Order. A President with a quick temper, does not seem to portend good leadership. Barack Obama's reasoned and thoughtful answers have much more appeal. I sure hope most Americans agree.
Swiftboating consists of supplying those who already want a reason to dislike a candidate with a reason for disliking him. If you're likeable, it's a LOT harder to go negative, as Gee Dubya Butch and Ron Reagan have both proven.
When it came to Kerry, the Dem's argument was that his war service made him admirable, not likeable. Admiration is a much less comfortable emotion than liking, and many people can be both admirable and an asshole at the same time. Dukakis was the same; again, he wasn't a warm person, and he fared poorly when the tide turned negative.
Obama is different. He's skating away from all Hillary Clinton's attacks because he's a great deal more likeable than she is, so her smears stick to her, not him. Likeability is half of political teflon. (The other half is popular consent, but it's the subject for another day.) Obama has it in spades. It's time for the party to stop running scared; the democrats have picked the right candidate for the times, and he has the assets and strategy to win. Relax; you're winning.
When I see Obama as a tele evangelist and somewhat of a pacifist, he isn't very likeable to me.
When I see him as a politician, like everyone else, he is less likeable.
He definately hides behind the preachers podium for a reason. It makes it harder to see him for what he is. A flawed person like all of us. But with enormous ambition.
Hillary's done, that's a mathematical fact. She's prolonging the inevitable, so Obama supporters are pretty much disinterested in the rest of the fanfare and circus detritus.
On the other hand, the media loves a scandal, and if it "bleeds" it "leads" even if to get it to bleed you have to bury the lede. The fundamental connection between the Obama scandals is that THERE IS NO SCANDAL if you actually read the stories completely.
The response to Obama from all generations of Americans is unlike anything that I have seen in my 45 years of adult life and voting. Its like Robert Kennedy running for president during the great angst of the late 60's. Life then was almost surreal. Today its like hope is surreal, since it has been missing in our lives for so long. The people are taking charge, not the media and not the political machine.
I believe with all my heart and soul that my sense is perceiving within the realm of reality and is not that of magical thinking, however, in my great sense of grief for America I must admit I no longer know.
Hillary can't beat Obama, but somehow asserts that she's better to beat McCain than he is. LOL Look, I understand your last ditch effort to paint Obama as a passing fad. Your girl is losing, and can not possibly win with grace, and does not know how to lose with grace. The only question left is how pathetic does she want to be, and how badly is she willing to hurt the Democratic Party? I think at this point she just wants to bring down Obama so that McCain will win and she can run against him in 4 years. You know, whatever gets her there.
Hillary Clinton is far from having been vetted as she claims. Her refusal to make her income tax reports public is no accident. Bill and Hillary have many things hidden away still and there will many more unsavory moments to come.
The press can't smear a guy that has a stadium full of supporters, promising American's a voice and place at the political table, and talking optimistically about Americans coming together to make this the best country it can be. Its not that Obama has a free ride from the press, its just that his sunny exuberance is contagious. Stop worrying about the fall out and lets take our country back already.
"It's a question that needs to be asked, given the manner in which so many campaigns in the past have ended so quickly, so unpredictably."
No, no, no! We don't have to ask the question, we don't have to think about the question, we don't have to acknowledge the question will ever come up. Anyway, it's all Bill Clinton's fault and that's the end of it!
The Reagan "sleeping bear' fear based political ad could be used by Barack. All that would need to be done is replace the narrative about the USSR with the GOP. Something along the lines of .... "there is a sleeping bear out there. It's the GOP political base. A base that isn't inspired by it's own nominee and isn't raising much money,etc. Is there anything out there that can wake the sleeping bear? You bet there is ... It's Hillary Rodham Clinton! " The GOP won't be able to contain itself. And Ladies, remember, women are second class citizens in the Republican world, so going after here won't present any problems. In fact, it will be Republican women who will lead the Anti-Hillary brigade.
HRC's campaign has not crumbled. The media continually portrays it that way and props Obama up. HRC is miles ahead of Obama in intellect and experience and she'll do the job this country needs to be done. Obama is a fad which will fade and fade fast once the Republicans zero in on him.
I beg to differ, jp1949. Any campaign that went from a prohibitive favorite to fall in 11 straight primary contests is crumbling. I suppose it is possible to reconstitute and battle back, but to go from 20% favorites across the board to 11 straight defeats can definitely and fairly be described as crumbling.
God HillaryLand has a short memory. Nobobdy seems to remember when she was the media darling, and every single piece on every single media outlet proclaimed her as the far-and-away favorite. Nobody is saying the media is fair, but you can't have it both ways. Clinton benefited from her status as a front runner for nearly an entire YEAR leading up to the primaries. She had an advantage in money, name recognition and coverage. Now that Obama has a media and money advantage, Hillary whines about being outspent? Didn't hear those complaints when you were the one outspending, eh?
On what basis do you judge HRC as "miles ahead of Obama in intellect"? Are you aware that Lawrence Tribe, the great professor of constitutional law at Harvard, described Obama as the most gifted student he ever taught? Are you aware that Obama taught constitutional law at the U. of Chicago Law School, where the pre-hire vetting involves famously stringent cross-examination by a faculty that doesn't include any average intelligences?
I am perfectly happy to acknowledge that Clinton is also intellectually gifted. After the dim bulb we've had in the White House for the past 7 years, both candidates look like geniuses.
Consequently, I'm more interested in their other qualities, such as common sense, political instincts, qualities of personality that draw (or repel) other people, and fundamental world view. In these categories, Obama trounces Clinton, and that is why his imprbable candidacy has out-performed Clinton's despite her pre-existing fame, fortune and political base.
Just look at the crumbling of HRC's inevitability campaign and you can see how fast fortunes can turn. These are times where speculation is rife and any outcome can be predicted and the conclusion defended, from landslide victories to ignominious defeat. Nobody really has any clue at all how this will unfold over the next 7 months, but it's grand sport to guess and write about, I suppose.
Time will tell.
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Posted March 3, 2008 | 12:45 PM (EST)