Hard Hit In Midwest Most Desperate For Change

Last week I had the opportunity to visit family and friends in Ohio and Michigan. Unsurprisingly, there was a dramatic contrast in the opinions about the state of the country and the presidential race between these Midwesterners and my friends in Ventura County, California.

Michigan and Ohio feel the impact of the economic decline to a much greater extent. All are directly or indirectly involved with the automobile industry. In Ventura County there is a greater diversity of industry and the impact of the Country Wide and Amgen downsizings are just beginning. You could almost say that looking at the situation in the Midwest is a peep into the future of California if things don't improve quickly.

The loss of well-paying manufacturing jobs in the 80s and 90s has led to a loss of tax revenues and an increase in taxes. Those who lost their jobs early on were encouraged to take advantage of retraining opportunities in the computer industry. Now these same people are entering nursing school in droves in the hopes that they can secure a stable job with benefits and a decent salary.

There is a sense of cautious hope and optimism with respect to the Obama campaign in the places I visited (Lansing, Ann Arbor, West Bloomfield, Shaker Heights, Cleveland) in the Midwest.

There is also a lot of anger with the current administration:

The cost of the war is seen as diverting needed resources and enriching the wealthy; there are family members who have served tours of duty in Iraq and Kuwait; loss of retiree health benefits threaten the security of the seniors; Bush and Cheney are viewed as criminals.

Obama is the favorite by far but there is worry that he will not win, not because he is not seen as qualified but because some people will only vote for a white candidate. The message of hope and change is inspiring and empowering but will he really, as president, be able to implement his plan? Will the lobbyists allow the new president to eliminate taxes for seniors making less than $50K? Will he stop the war? Will he bring the jobs back?

In stark contrast, most of the people in I know in Ventura County are McCain supporters. They want to continue the status quo because they fear an increase in taxes and the change that Sen. Obama represents. There is little concern about McCain's health or temperament. They like the idea that McCain was a POW. Another interesting contrast is that no one has a family member currently serving in Iraq.

The race is indeed interesting and exciting this year. From those I've talked to we can expect record turnouts on both sides.