What About The White Guys?

As they analyze the Democratic primaries, pundits focus on women, African Americans and Latinos. What about the white male? In the privacy of the voting booth, where will the white men go in November? Hillary Clinton should be worried.

Look at the match-ups. Examine Democratic and Independent voters. Democratic women are not going to abandon their party regardless of the nominee. Nor will Latinos. African Americans may lose some enthusiasm without Obama. Young people, notorious for sitting on the sidelines, may as well. But what about white men? When given the choice between Clinton and McCain, I believe many moderate and conservative Democrat/Independent males will vote for the old soldier. His narrative, the maverick aviator, speaks to them. That may not be true if Obama is on the ballot. As he gains support among white males, the exit polls show the real hidden bias may be gender, not race.

As we examine shifting alliances and lay bets on the general election, my swing vote is the Democrat/Independent white male. To paraphrase Abigail Adams, "don't forget the laddies".

Read more Super Tuesday coverage on HuffPost

Comments

[True]

I am so sick of people saying that not supporting hillary is a sign of sexism. Hillary Clinton:

1. Helped lead the charge to an immoral and illegal war, and justified it by saying "9/11 happened in my home state."
2. Continues to genuflect to a sociopathic President and V.P.
3. Openly shows disdain for progressives who actually stand by progressive values.
4. Is willingly the puppet of the establishment, even more so than some GOP candidates.

[alkamm]

The Clintons won NY State because they've been able to distribute so much political patronage through her Senate office, and because women see her as their great white hope.
I like Geraldine Ferraro too, but her minor baggage is nothing like that of Hillary and Bill. You can feel the strain in the Republican party, the sado-masochistic pleasure of having to keep their fingers so tightly crossed for a Clinton nomination!
A sober analysis of the Super Tuesday results would lead voters in the remaining states to abandon the Clinton gravy train/band wagon so they can be part of something that unites us rather than divides us as the Clinton campaign will do.
Who would have thought that white men and women from so many diverse states would go for Obama? Of course, all you have to do is be ble to read and listen to him and there is no comparison.
I wonder if the Clinton faction has the eyes and ears to listen to what's going on. I doubt it.

[Lon]

There is a limit to how much one can get from trying to extend democrat primary voting to the general election. After all voting in the democratic primary is a self selecting mechanism.

It does seem true that Obama's voters are more likely to stay home, simply because they come from constituencies that do not traditionally vote in large numbers (young people and blacks). On the other hand that could be a problem for Obama if they don't turn out in bigger numbers in the generals.

And while white males may be a problem for Hilary, the above account lives out the likelihood that there are a certain number of moderate republican women who would vote for Clinton but not Obama.

My guess is that on balance these trends favor Obama. But it is not something that it is easy to be confident about.

[janmB]

CATHERINE and all who are concerned -

Do you also know Obama's pastor, Jeremiah Wright supports Lewis Farakan ?
Mr. Obama found some faith in this church .
WORRY about OBAMA .

[sonofloud]

white males are more racist than they are sexist

[LongTom]

Here's a back of the envelope calculation.

Super Tuesday:
Hillary's total victory margin: 1.298 million in 8 states
Obama's total victory margin: 1.265 million in 12 states.

Total margin on Super Tuesday:
Hillary +32,000

Total Margin in all primaries and caucuses reporting so far:
Obama +113,000

This does not include Michigan or Florida, where neither campaigned and which aren't recognized by the party, nor states like Iowa and Nevada, which did not report raw voter tallies from their caucuses.

[Daner]

I am afraid what we are forgetting is how the Republicans use fear and divisiveness in their campaigning. They want their opponent to be Obama, because they will start bringing up black issues like affirmative action to start polarizing these white moderates that are now comfortable with Obama.

Obama has been able to be successful because he rises above the race issue. The Republicans will do their best to be sure he is forced to take as many issues as possible to define him as a black candidate. All hell started breaking lose when Hillary and Bill made fairly innocuous statements that the media blew into major race issues. Wait until the Republicans get into the fray.

[Mannycongo]

This male child of the 60's won't be voting for Clinton under any circumstances. A case could be made that Bill Clinton's reprehensible behavior set the stage for his presumed coleague, Al Gore's, defeat in the 2000 election to set the stage for Hillary's run in 2008. Who is to say part of her agenda will not be to set Jeb Bush up for the 2016 election? This dynasty of Bush/Clinton must end and it must end now!! John McCain does not represent my views; I distrust him on foreign affairs. Nevertheless, I fear for the health of the republic if Clinton becomes president. And if Obama runs with her, then shame on him. He'll just end up like Al Gore in the end. We need to see these Clinton's and Bush's for what they are: evil, duplicitous and destructive to our freedoms as they have proven themselves to be. Sometimes the issues are more important to consider pursuant to the welfare of our society institutionally than those merely appearing to be before us. Please think about it, gentle citizens......

[pearlsofwisdom]

There is both a gender/race concern for Dem's. Race is a huge factor...block voting by blacks in the south was obvious. Of course, the gender question is there, too. However, white males turned their noses up at Kerry. I think there is more going on here than just gender.

[ah2323]

I'm a white guy, and I'm no fan of Hillary. That being said, I think she will be the Dem nominee. But I have principles, and Hillary, however unlikeable I find her, fits with my principles more than any Republican ever could. Any white male Democrat who votes for an addled, war mongering charlatan like McCain because Hillary makes his weewee shrivel up is an idiot. But there are more than enough of those around, I guess...

[BillZBubb]

A majority of white males has consistently shown themselves to be easily manipulated idiots. They always vote for the RepubliCLOWN candidate. This election will be no different.

You claim polls show Obama doing better among white males than Hillary Clinton. Two big problems with that superficial point: Clinton has already be fully smeared by the right wing and Obama has not; and, polls always show an African American candidate getting a higher percentage than he/she receives in the election. People don't advertise their racism to pollsters.

The white male vote isn't going to favor any Democrat.

[Cathexis]

*sigh* Much as I'd like to take exception to the question and its implications ... I have to concede it is a valid question.

I sincerely hope that white males will vote for whomever they believe has the best platform and that it doesn't come down to "how many will jump ship due to racism or misogyny."

But, admittedly, that is just a hope. I'm sure we'll end up losing some number, whoever the Dem nominee is. I can only hope it is offset by the number of Kool-Aid-drinking dittoheads who will stay home rather than vote for McCain.

[DeLuxe]

Why would it be "bias"? Clinton is actively running a campaign that alienates men. It's a "Madame President" "girl power" thing. She was already going to have problems getting men because she is a inherently poor candidate, but you throw the transparent gender politicking into the mix, and the dudes are generally running for the hills. She does not speak to most men. It's not bias. It's a product of her own tactics.

[CSE]

Well, at least you had sense enough to qualify your general conceptions with "I believe". But, it then has little effect when you cannot support your beliefs.

Crier writes: "When given the choice between Clinton and McCain, I believe many moderate and conservative Democrat/I­ndependent males will vote for the old soldier. His narrative, the maverick aviator, speaks to them."

Rubbish - wholly unsupported rubbish. "Speaks to them?" Rubbish.

Crier then writes; "That may not be true if Obama is on the ballot. As he gains support among white males, the exit polls show the real hidden bias may be gender, not race."

"The exit polls?" - What exit polls? More rubbish. Back this up. What polls indicate your "hidden bias"? What makes what is only your opinion relevant?

Maybe most men believe that the spectrum of choices is a sad reflection upon our nation - as we disintegrate down to a choice based upon a lesser of evils as perceived by each individual, white, pink, brown, blue and with or without a dangling participle.

[bronceye]

I would suppose that, as it's being set up by the media as an historic DNA event, people will vote for their DNA-alike. Rainbow coalition, good old boy's club, NOW, etc.