As Good As It Gets for McCain

About a month ago, I said on the show that this as good as it gets for John McCain. That was in the middle of the Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton melee. At that point Obama and McCain were essentially tied in the polls, and some polls even had McCain up by a few points. There's a good chance you will never see that again.

I believed that then and I believe it even more strongly now. The main problem wasn't all the damage that Hillary Clinton was inflicting on Obama (though she did do some), it was that the press wasn't paying any attention to McCain. Once you turn the spotlight on McCain, it isn't pretty.

He has flip-flopped on nearly every issue. He has betrayed nearly every principle has ever had. No one knows where he really stands on any of the issues. The two perfect examples are torture and immigration. Senator McCain had been against torture his whole life, for very good reason, until recently when he voted to allow the CIA to torture detainees. He was for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers, until he said he would vote against his own bill on that issue.

His positions are both ever-changing and indefensible at the same time. And they are made less defensible every day that he flips and flops them. It's bad enough to be the pro-torture candidate, but when you're the lying pro-torture candidate, that's tough to swallow.

Plus, he is against 80% of the people in the country on the Iraq War (that's the percentage that want to leave Iraq in two years, whereas McCain says he will stay at least through 2013 when his first term ends). He is running based on experience when everyone wants change. And he doesn't even have his own side excited by his candidacy. And oh yeah, did I mention he is going to have so much less money than Obama?

Anything can happen. We could have a world changing event. Big Brown lost the Belmont Stakes. The Patriots lost the Superbowl. Overwhelming favorites lose all the time. Hyper-vigilance is absolutely essential.

That being said, if nothing substantial changes, Obama is going to wipe the floor with McCain. It's going to be a landslide. Obama already jumped to a six to seven point lead as soon as he locked up the Democratic nomination. Now a new Gallup poll shows he is up 13 points among women. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll indicates people prefer change to experience in large numbers. McCain has nothing on his side. This is going to be a bloodbath.

John McCain was tied with Obama based mainly on name recognition before. This was similar to Joe Lieberman's lead in the 2004 Democratic primary before the race really began. You knew it wasn't going to last. It was an empty lead with no substance backing it up. That's where McCain sat for a few precious moments, but now the rug is slipping out from underneath him. From now on, he can only go downhill.

I predicted a couple of years ago that George Bush's popularity would never recover. That seems obvious in hindsight but at the time the media was talking about the narrative of comeback and everyone was used to politicians whose popularity went up and down over time. I said Bush wouldn't make a comeback because he didn't have it in him. And McCain won't be able to come back against Obama because he doesn't have anything to base that comeback on. He's got nothing in his arsenal. This race won't go back and forth as most races do. McCain will just keep slip sliding away until he gets routed in November.

The Republicans can -- and will -- go negative. But people are tired of it. It doesn't have the same punch it used to. It looks craven and backward. I think McCain could be down as many twenty points before the summer is over.

This is not to say that Democrats should get complacent. That would be disastrous. In fact, other than a world calamity, the only other thing that can put McCain back in the game is arrogance and complacency. If you need any motivation to keep fighting all the way, just imagine how you'll feel if John McCain is being sworn in as the next president of the United States on January 20th and we'll be looking forward to staying in Iraq indefinitely and nothing will change for another four years. It's too painful to even consider. So, it's a good thing Obama is going to crush him.

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Comments

[WorkingClass]

American voters are just as stupid as ever. But this year they are angry and paying attention. They don't much care about illegal wars and torture. Or the constitution or the bill of rights. What they care about is whats THEIRS. They are losing their homes and their cars and their pensions and their savings and inflation and unemployment are pulling them under. Thats the reality on the American street. And the voters aren't so stupid they don't know who's been in charge for eight years. Plus Obama is the real deal. His campaign is a marvel. He is clearly a political genius. He has ideas and plans. He is articulate and charismatic. You got it right Cenk. OBAMA IN A LANDSLIDE!!

[CAPTAINSKIPPY]

Plenty of wishful "thinking" shown, by both sides. What's the real choice for voters?

[Incredulous]

If you haven't figured out the difference between McCain and Obama by now, you may as well just go back to sleep. We'll wake you up when it's over.

[jeanrenoir]

I agree that McCain looks like the worst candidate--I mean the least attractive, the most bumbling, whatever you think of his issues--in modern American political history. If it weren't for the Hanoi Hilton, he would never have been given serious consideration for the nomination. He makes Dukakis or Dole look great. He should be dead meat in the polls, especially with the overwhelming Dem advantage this year, in voters registered, issues, everything. Why the hell is this guy still basically tied with Obama in the Gallup Tracking Poll? This terrifies me. Does it mean that the American public is as moronic and as easily manipulated by the pathetic Sean Hannities of the world as ever? Does it mean that after the biggest foreign policy disaster in American history and the most ruinous run-up of debt in history, and gas prices heading for $5 a gallon, the Booboisie will STILL vote Republican for president out of fear? If so, this republic truly is doomed.

[realistxxx]

Too many people will vote their fears. Fear of terrorism, Iran, Iraq and Fear of a Black Candidate!

No matter how bumbling McClone is, nothing can be taken for granted.

I still think 0bama will win and likely handily. Unfortunately, 7+ years of Bush have made me quite wary of my fellow Americans' ability to put aside irrational fears and do what is truly best for the country.

[nr16020]

Yes, I agree. Why is McCain, who is tied at the hip to Bush, even close in the polls?
What Democrats need to do is get the word out about this FACT.......
Those in The Bush Administration have done more ACTUAL damage to America than anyone else, EVER.
(And I don't just mean any other politician, but anyone else.)
The fact that McCain doesn't forcefully denounce what Bush/Chene­y/Gonzales­/Rove have done proves that he essentially agrees with them and would probably continue to do immense damage to our country.
And the fact that McCain has Rove working with him regarding campaign tactics, etc. also lends more credence that if he is elected it would be a "Bush third term".
Finally, Democrats need to work on shaming those in America who are cowards. We need to get the word out that anyone who succumbs to "fear tactics" is both gullible and a coward.
(Americans tend to pride themselves on "being brave".)

[eminencefrontman]

"The lying pro-torture candidate"...I like that. Maybe it will fit on a bumper sticker. Along with "Another racist for McCain." Uygur is right; this is gonna be a landslide that not even Karl Rove can stop.

[Incredulous]

Or Diebold.

[S1m0n]

Assuming democratic competence (and much less than Barack Obama displays would have sufficed) the result of this election was foreordained the day Pres. Butch had his picture took gazing cluelessly out the window of air force one above New Orleans.

[XME]

I think if there's one thing few of us will do, it's become complacent. In spite of this being a "Democratic year" and the GOPs having a crappy candidate, the fact is that Americans scare easily (we are a xenophobic country like none I've seen before)...so Obama is at a disadvantage to some for not being a DC insider, for being black, and for having one parent who some view as making him not a "full-blooded American", and therefore someone who shouldn't be trusted.

Because of all of these things, we can and must assume that the GOP will fight him harder and dirtier than ever before (also as an effort to make up for their lack of a decent candidate). America can't afford a "President McCain"...just writing that makes me shudder.

[yhgtup]

I do hope Barack wins in November. Even though he maintained his "gentlemanship" dealing with Hillary's negative attacks, I am excited about his vigor in taking on John McCain. I think he will really strike back when the GOP "dumps" on Michelle. When Hillary women find out about Mccain's anti-women views, and when the country learns about Mccain's REAL Vietnam experience, I think a shift will come Barack's way. Not to mention the fact that John McCain doesn't even know how to use a computer. He relies on wife, Cindy. (We're in bad shape if that 3 a.m call comes and Cindy is back to her old tricks --- high on drugs).

[koolwoman]

There is no way that Hillary's supporters would vote for McCain. I am a Hillary supporter and I will vote for Obama. To see McCain on television with his lapdog, Lieberman, makes me nauseous.

[bgregs]

I don't know, I always saw Lieberman less as a lapdog, and more as a puppetmaster......

[PioneerKing]

CENK:

McCain has something in his pocket that Obama will not be able to overcome - bigotry, racisim and a biased main stream media that is vested in the McCain story and want to see the former POW elected more than it wants to see the first African-American elected.

Cenk, dude, your guy does not stand a chance against these odds.

[Ale]

Most bigots vote republican anyway
And the media is less trusted than ever

[Incredulous]

Yes, the mainstream media is a propaganda tool for the Right Wing Machine. But your assertion that bigotry and racism can win the day is cynical and dated. Bigotry and racism are McCain's trump card? Are you really suggesting that the majority of Americans are bigots and racists? How do the rest of you Americans feel about this bozo calling you bigots and racists? There's no denying that hate-mongering worked in the past for the Bush administration. But Americans seem to be waking up from their 911 stupor, and they see things in a whole new light now. They see that they've been duped buy charlatans and thieves. They see the gross incompetency. They see the utter contempt that the Republicans have had for the Constitution. And the law. And now people are more engaged. They're paying more attention. They're looking for change. They're ready for change. I say to the Republican smear machine, "Bring it on!" The Republican's circus of sleaze illustrates every single day, Obama's message of change; the desperate need for change in the Washington status quo. This isn't a battle of ideas. McCain has no ideas. "More of the same" isn't a political strategy, especially in a year that will be defined by change. People see that. They're paying attention. The Smear Machine is his only hope, and it's not going to work this time.
So Pioneer King, I suggest it's YOUR guy who doesn't stand a chance against these odds.

[Grace2008]

From your lips to low information voters' ears!!!

[americanworker]

Obama is all about talking the talk but he isn't walking the walk. Wher was he last week when the Senate Democrats pushed the envelope to hold the oil corporations accountable to pay their fair share and give the American workers a break so they can afford the basics in life , forget about having a great summer vacation for way too many hard working families. But Obama's big tax revision to hit the American couples who have applied their education and skills to rise up and enjoy the good life. I don't hear anything from Obama about bringing jobs , real initiatives which can be viable put into action to bring jobs, back to American soil. Will we continue to import poisonous food & toys , low quality products which hsv

[bgregs]

Then obviously you weren't listening. His plan is all about jobs here, and people actually getting ahead when they work their buts off!

And as far as him not walking the walk, please explain with more than just a gripe that he was campaigning for President! As an IL resident I would wish that he would drop his Senate seat so that we can fill it, but I'm still happy to have him!

[ijgibson]

Great to see you cheering up the entire world. The argument is pretty convincing, but we'll still all pray you are right. More of the same doesn't bear thinking about !

[WilliamGossett]

Look at RCP polls - Obama keeps slipping. He was up by 4 points and now by three. He keeps going down.

McCain will kill him with military victory in Iraq.

As I have repeatedly said before - McCain will easily win the November election and we will all suffer because of all the other GOP baggage he will bring.

Bye-Bye to abortion rights. Bye-Bye to equitable taxation. Bye-Bye to health care reform.

It will take another generation or two before we ever get back on track.

Remember the neo-con philosophy "You're on your own." Get used to it.

[thebirdstheword]

"McCain will kill him with military victory in Iraq."

With that sentence, you lose all credibility. Not to mention that you distort poll numbers. Makes me think that you're just another in a long line of fake, operation chaos-style trolls.

[bgregs]

"Look at RCP polls - Obama keeps slipping. He was up by 4 points and now by three. He keeps going down."

Look at EVERY poll, Obama is going UP against McBush

"McCain will kill him with military victory in Iraq."

Since there is no such thing, it ain't gonna happen!

"As I have repeatedly said before - McCain will easily win the November election and we will all suffer because of all the other GOP baggage he will bring."

If you really think that he's that bad, then you need to go out and help make sure that he doesn't win!!

"Bye-Bye to abortion rights. Bye-Bye to equitable taxation. Bye-Bye to health care reform."

Yeah, except that we can make Obama win, and then it WON'T be bye bye to those!

[sdbsingle1]

Not so my friend, as your Candidate that you said would win puts it.

McCain is dogmeat come November, and I don't have a problem with McCain as far as him being a human being, but as far as his policies go, he is just like this mess we have in the White House right now, and I try my best not to talk harshly about our Leaders of Gov., but this Administration and his Congress for the 1st 6 years was a complete joke, and now they see the inevitability of being hammered in November, and they want to try and do something about it.

It was reported this morning that Bush wants Bin Laden brought to justice before he leaves office, but he has had 7 years to catch this man, and nothing, but we are over in Iraq, and for what OIL?!

Anyone who thinks we are trying to make that country free, WAKE UP!
Only the truly insane think we are doing a good job and as a Country, we have fallen off like No Limit Records, so please vote your heart, and for the good of everyone in Nov. and not just for yourself.

[sdbsingle1]

New Polls have him up by double digits, and that may change somewhat, but not much and in November, you can say goodbye to Mr. McCain and his wife, and the Rep. party for that matter, because it's a new day in America, and the new BossHog is Barack Obama.


Yee-Haah!

[JKoos]

What a crock. All you have to do is look at Congress and imagine this woolly bunch in charge of the whole government. McCain in a landslide.

[desertdweller]

See you on November 5......

[thebirdstheword]

I know... it's horrible how congress screwed up iraq so badly, screwed up katrina so badly.

oh, wait.... that was the GOP.

good luck with that one, neofool.

[bgregs]

Yeah, because it was all the democrats. Yup, they're the ones who ignored the intelligence, allowing 9/11. They're the ones who ignored further intelligence, sending us to war in Iraq. They're the ones who broke the constitution by turning the US into a bastion, not of freedom, but one of torture!

Oh, wait, that wasn't the democrats????? WHAT!? That was the republican­s?????????­?

[sdbsingle1]

bgregs, that was too funny dude!

[MoeB]

While I defintely agree that we need to keep this momentum ball moving in favor of Obama, I do think that these polls are leaving out a significant percentage of Obama supporters who do not have landlines, and thus are not being polled. Hordes of younger voters have cell phones and not landlines. This is one of Obama's biggest support groups. Until they start getting polled, we won't have an accurate picture of how much of a lead he really has.

[washington31]

And don't forget the un-presidented HIGH AA turnout out in every single red, blue, and purple State. There is no scale to measure these turnouts so these numbers are probably higher then what is stated. AA if your listening you need to get every darn relative out to vote in November, and I mean everyone in you family. Get them in the car and Vote. This is the most important election in HISTORY!

[jimmyaj]

Twenty percent is about right. And in line with those numbers, look for the GOP to lose about 80 seats in the House. In the Senate? The Senate Republicans will be impotent far into the future.

America is fed up with lies and greed.