Is Hillary Positioning for 2012?
The Politico laid it out very clearly yesterday - and solidified what we've known for weeks - this race is over. Obama has the nomination.
Even Hillary Clinton's own campaign admits it! Politico reports, "One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives. In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe."
It's somewhat hilarious to watch the media eat up the campaign spin on the record, that she's got a great shot to win this and win the Presidency. Of course, the race gets a whole lot more boring with lower ratings when it's Obama vs. McCain, probably with a huge lull in the campaign, where - God forbid - the news media will actually have to go out and find and report news, and not just campaign talking points sent to them.
I've been trying to figure out for weeks why Hillary Clinton is still in this campaign because the math has been obvious for quite some time now. Even Mitt Romney had the - what would you call it, decency, wisdom, common sense - to drop out after he realized it was mathematically impossible (or next to impossible) for him to win.
There is one possibility as to why Senator Clinton might still be in this race, inflicting heavy damage on the presumptive Democratic nominee. That reason is Hillary 2012.
Now that's a heavy charge. I can't read her mind, so I don't know what her true intentions are. We can only judge based on her actions. Her staff understands and agrees that she has a very, very small chance of winning, but she is still willing to go after front-runner of her own party in the strongest possible words.
Look at what she has said about the man she privately believes will be the Democratic nominee for President:
He has not crossed the "Commander in Chief threshold" like John McCain has.
He cannot be trusted to answer the phone at 3am.
His only experience is a speech from 2002.
That he is disenfranchising voters in Michigan and Florida (even though she agreed to the same rules he did when those states stepped out of line in the primary process).
And, as Bill Clinton intimated yesterday, he doesn't love our country, like Hillary and McCain do.
Those are some serious blows against someone in your own party and might seriously hurt his chances of winning the general election. In fact, every day that Senator Clinton stays in the race is another day she spends money damaging Senator Obama. And every dollar she spends is a dollar in John McCain's pocket.
It almost makes you ask - does she want him to lose?
If Obama wins, then Senator Clinton couldn't run again until at least 2016 (unless something goes terribly wrong). At which point, she would be almost as old as John McCain is now. If she's ever going to become president, she has this narrow window.
On the other hand, if Senator Obama sustains serious political wounds going into the general election and winds up losing, then Hillary Clinton is sitting pretty in 2012.
In four years, John McCain will be 209 years old, and coming off a disastrous first term. We will still be in Iraq and the country will be dying for change. If you thought the voters wanted change now, imagine what the situation will be in 2012. Imagine how starved the electorate will be for a Democrat if McCain just spent four years replicating George W. Bush's policies - as he is adamantly promising to do on the campaign trail.
At that point, Senator Clinton would be able to swoop in and say, "See, you went with Obama last time and he lost, just like I told you. Now, nominate me, and I will take this White House back like we should have four years ago!"
Having narrowly lost to Obama in the primary, she would be in a great position to say "It's my turn! Let's get this right!"
Is she that cynical? Does she care that little about her own party or her own principles? Remember, a McCain win signs us up for more years in Iraq, a possible new war with Iran, an untold number of conservative judges on the Supreme Court, a probable overturn of Roe v. Wade, four more years of economic pain for the lower and middle class and ... no healthcare reform for another four years.
Is anyone that politically craven? To risk all that so they have a better chance of winning in 2012? I hope not. I hope she is just being delusional and thrashing about in misguided desperation as she continues to wound Obama going into the general election.
But if she is doing this on purpose - and she wants Obama to lose this time around so she has a better chance of winning in 2012 - she better make damn sure that news doesn't leak. Because that kind of political crime would be unforgivable. Unforgivable.
Follow Cenk Uygur on Twitter: www.twitter.com/TheYoungTurks
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
The Clinton's do have experience, at damaging the Dem Party.
And they're putting it to good use.
No where in your post do you address the 12 million people who want her to be the next President. I would say that's why she is still in the race. Also, it's not just about the math. Every time someone supposes that argument they leave out the fact that anything could happen between now and June or between now and August. Math doesn't account for life.
With that said, would someone please explain to me why Obama's 13,281,132 votes/people are more important than Hillary's 12,577,409 votes/people. I realize he has more, but not that much more, and the race is not over yet. Not only that, but she is leading in the polls, so this race could possibly take a drastic turn. Please tell me why we don't deserve to be heard.
Here is the "why" you requested: because the nomination process is decided by who gets the most votes. Yes, the gap between the two candidates is not that huge, but it is significant, and more importantly it can't be bridged by Clinton.
To wit: Clinton cannot make up the difference in votes. Obama will continue to return the percentages we've already seen, and that will end up with Obama winning the nomination.
The "10% chance" thing is really down to whether some magical dirt can be found that will destroy Obama, like maybe a good hooker scandal or something. Barring that type of implosion, Obama will coast to a victory.
It's not that your votes are not being "heard," it's that your votes are fewer than the votes going to Obama, and therefore, your candidate will not win.
For Clinton to remain in the campaign when this is obvious, is disingenuous and one has to question why she would continue to attack the person who will lead the Democratic Party into the election in 2008. Clearly a Democrat of any stripe is a better option than John McCain, no?
What Clinton has already accomplished, as the first viable female candidate, is truly remarkable and she's already made history. As a Democrat, I am proud of my Party that we have offered up the first female contender. But in this race, she has lost. It is time for her to admit this and to seek to help Obama and Democrats win in November.
One Geraldine Ferraro is already too many.
Cheers.
I can't believe Obama supporters are so sure. Yes he has the most votes now, but it's not over yet. In fact the polls indicate that the election is turning in her favor. If you are going to blame her, you have to blame her supporters too.
Actually, I am mystified when I hear Obama supporters say she is being negative. She really isn't saying a thing. The Reverend Wright thing is what they are going to use on him. Besides, I don't think the republicans need her help.
I think saying that Obama has won the nomination is like saying McCain has won the presidency. For which there is a good argument. Since McCain will be getting a lot of votes from democrats.
Anyway I appreciate your response.
Good point. If the shoe was on the other foot, no Obama supporter would want him out.
Also, since nobody will have the magic number without the Supers, sometimes a losing candidate can extract a deal Eg the way the primaries are happening (J. Jackson paved the way for Obama) or on a program (I'll give you my delegates if you agree to xyz on healthcare) or even an administrative position.
Yes, it's possible -even likely - that Hillary may run in 2012 if BO loses in November. But that doesn't mean that she caused the damage or even worse, as the article seems to imply, that she damaged him on puprose so he will lose (even though probably many of his supporters will blame her for that). The "experience" issue would have been raised for sure by McCain anyways, he may be old but he is not stupid. Rev. Wright's statements would also been known by November as well. Would Obama's campaign have preferred the "3:00 am" ad to hit the airwaves a week before the election, and Wright's comments to come out just a few days before Nov 4? . I seriously doudt that.
I personally think that the "attacks" or "vetting" at this stage is good for either candidate and the party.
HOWEVER, what I think it's potentially VERY bad, is an uncalled-for polarization that may make one candidate's supporters stay home if the other wins the nomination. And there are indications that it may happen.
Um. Explain why his votes count more than hers? Well, dear, it's an election, you see, and the person with the most votes actually wins. That's how an election works. Also, remember that if Obama were in Clinton's position this race would be over. He would have been forced to step down. It is only the privilege of her family name that is keeping her in the race.
Clinton is down by ~700,000. There are 4 million votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania. Why should she quit?
Reading the comments to this column is all the proof I need that Hillary is tearing the Democratic party apart. By continuing to run a quixotic race, Hillary is only creating deeper divisions within the party and she is destroying the chance for progressives to take the White House this year. If Hillary does have ambitions for 2012 or 2016, she needs to find a way to exit soon, otherwise there will be many Democrats, like myself , who will never support her in the future. Bill should also realize that he is doing irreparable harm to his legacy.
And for every "progressive" (i.e., Nader herder) there are 2 actual real dem voters who won't vote for Obama in November.
Based... on a dream you had...?
Of course she is positioning for 2012. hillary would rather see McCain win than Obama win just so she can run again before the botox wears off.
IMHO the clintons should be thrown out of the Democratic party
Several facts you choose to ignore: 1 - this is a Democratic primary, not a coronation. It isn't over by a long shot. Why should either candidate be asked to drop out? 2 - Isn't Obama hurting Hillary's chance in the general election just as much as Hillary is hurting Obama's chances? 3 - Obama is hurting both their chances against McCain for unbelievable bad judgement he has shown associating with that vile racist Rev Wright.
You would have to believe, then, that Clinton will suddenly start having LANDSLIDE wins in the remaining states. Not marginal wins, as in Ohio and Texas, but overwhelming, thumping, handing-of-ass to Obama, like Clinton winning 65% to 35%. The facts gleaned from polls and actual voting, show that Clinton does not enjoy that sort of majority, if a majority at all, and therefore the final numbers will wind up with her falling well short.
Therefore, Clinton can't win. As you agree that this is a nomination process, anyone can see that Clinton's continued fighting will only damage the candidate we will select, Obama.
Each and every attack Clinton levels at Obama will become grist for the Republican mill. Each and every attack helps McCain, and if you or anyone thinks that McCain's hold on the White House will not be a death grip, you're mistaken. Some might think a Hillary win in 2012 is worth watching McCain for 4 years, but don't forget that America voted Bush into office (more or less) twice. TWICE. And McCain is 10X the person Bush could ever be, even in his dreams.
Thank you, Hillary, but you've run your race and it's now over.
1 - if Obama were behind by as much as Hillary he would have been forced to step down for the good of the party. Hillary doesn't care about the party. 2 - Hillary is hurting Obama more because she is ACTUALLY ADVOCATING FOR AND CAMPAIGNING FOR MCCAIN. OBAMA HAS NEVER DONE THAT. ALSO, ,her attacks are MORE vicious, personal, and distorting than his. 3. If the standard is guilt by association, Hillary Clinton should be punished for remaining married to a man who lied to a grand jury under oath and who is the only president to be impeached in the 20th century. Also, McCain should be scolded for remianing married to a drug addict who stole from her own charity. Bill Clinton and Cindy McCain committed crimes. Rev. Wright didn't; he just exercised his freedom of speech. Let's apply this standard to all of the candidates
Your column is interesting, but I think it's more likely that the Clintons are counting on pressuring the convention to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations as is. The question I have, and nobody seems to comment on it, is what in the heck is Edwards doing? That would be a good topic for your next column.
Who cares about Edwards - he does not have the conviction of a thing - he's a chicken heart for not being able to stand up for whatever he believes in whether it's Clinton or Obama - what a chicken -
the dnc is allowing Clinton to destroy any chance for a democrat to win - she and bill do believe they are gods - why would he say McCain and Clinton love this country - was that question posed to him - he said it because he wanted to put it in the minds of the morons that Obama doesn't like this country - it's just like he and Hillary said maybe they would put Obama on their ticket - that was again to put in the minds of the dimwits that they should vote for Hillary and they would get both -
Your baseless insults of Edwards are unbecoming of a liberal, or even a Democrat. If you actually believed in anything Edwards had to say you wouldn't be the kind of person to rattle off nonsense like this.
I should think it's perfectly obvious what Edwards is doing. Edwards is hoping that the convention will deadlock, go 3 or 4 ballots, and turn to him as a compromise nominee.
If that's what he's thinking, he's delusional, but no more delusional than the Clinton supporters who think she can still be nominated, or the Clinton supporters who think she would never sabotage the Democratic nominee to improve her chances for 2012.
It's been about 2012 for Hillary since Barack's 11-0 run last month. She's known it was over for a long time and now she's just posturing.
Obama is not capable of pulling off the general election. Senator Clinton should position herself 2012.
I got a better idea. Why don't you drop out of writing nonsensical crap like this? Gee, I hope somebody doesn't pay you for this kind of idiotic pandering to Obamabots.
What a fantastically eloquent takedown of Barack Obama, his supporters amd Cenk Uygur. Is there any chance of you ever moving past your childish, ad hominem attacks and actually backing up your vitriol with something other than sour grapes and playground-level insults? My favorite was when you said that you might vote GOP rather than cast your vote for Obama. You know, some of you HRC supporters are sounding more and more like Republicans every day. Does Karl Rove do seminars?
Hey Veronica, while I agree with you, I have to ask, how confident is anybody that eazyguy isn't a Republican troll? Actually how confident can anyone be that the entire Clinton family isn't a Republican 'manchurian candidate?' From 1992 on they did have all the hallmarks of a Republican administration, NAFTA, welfare reform, spending and tax cuts, & cetra.
Amen. Why should Hillary smooth the road for the guy who can't close the deal? Obama isn't owed anything. Personally I think he's going to get hammered on Rev. Wright, and I don't care. Why? Because he's always been in it for number one, from his antiwar speech from a safe distance to voting "present." He doesn't deserve the coddling he's getting. He won't be there for us if his popularity is threatened in any way.
But it's the math for the hope candidate. Because he didn't get scrutinized before, now we're stuck with him, because his supporters will be disappointed. Ever think Hillary's supporters might be just as disappointed?
Everything that Senator Clinton and President Clinton have said about Obama are the FACTS,
the TRUTH.
Since when did pointing out the FACTS - the TRUTH - become attacks - they are NOT ATTACKS
THEY ARE THE FACTS!
Yo Thistle, LAY OFF THE CAFFIENE.
Like insinuating he's not a patriot? Got facts?
I find it funny that the Obama supporters are pretending that the Wright event has not occurred. There are new videos being thrown around U-Tube, I have received them via e-mail, which have already been produced about Obama-Wright connection. If Obama is the nominee, he will be pummelled with this again and again. Obama needs the middle class white voter, which he simply calls "typical white people." The Wright matter is totally Obama's fault based upon his own actions. Actions speak louder than words. Obama gives a fantastic speech, but his actions are far from his rhetoric - ie Rezko, Wright, and Exelon Corp. What actions has Obama done that make him qualified to be POTUS? Not very many!
You are a Republican. At least have the courage to admit it, instead of hiding behind your keyboard.
You're a sick puppy. hillary and slick willie have lied, lied some more and then lied again.
Did you hear the one about dodging sniper bullets in Macedonia?
Did you hear the one about single handedly bringing peace to Ireland?
Did you hear the one about opposing NAFTA?
Do you hear at all?
clintons are so full of BS that they believe their own lies.
Isn't it obvious by now? To a Clintonian, nothing is unforgivable.
Funny isn't it how so many Dem/Lib tunes have changed. When the GOP went after the Clintons for good, & sometimes not so good reasons you guys had a nutty.
You stood by the Clintons through thick & thin, always claiming that it was the big bad Republicans at fault for everything & anything they were accused of doing. Which was a load of crap, but that was your story.
Now so many of you are singing a different tune. Sorry but I'm getting a huge laugh watching it all.
Hey maybe we on the Right were correct all along? Go ahead, admit it. Hahahaha!
I admit it.
indeed, to a Clintonian, nothing is unforgivable, unless perpetrated by someone other than a Clintonian.
Why should she quit the race? She could very well pull off the nomination, and I hope she does.
Only with superdelegates, and then she would lose the general. She would be a fool to take it that way cause it would ruin her permanently.
That's not the only way she could win. He is losing a significant number of white votes. She could win BIG in the remaining primaries.
Well Cenk, she's already shown herself to be that cynical. She voted to give Bush the authority to send our young men and women to Iraq without reading the NIE. WITHOUT READING THE NIE.
Now, she says she didn't think Bush would invade. This position suggests Hillary is either an idiot or a liar, and she's not an idiot. Bush was already massing troops in Kuwait at the time of the vote, for god's sake.
The only reason she'd vote without reading the NIE is that the facts didn't matter, but the politics did. And that means she put her political interests above the country's, above our military, and above the citizens.
If whe did it once, why wouldn't she do it again?
Well, so far on the opinion poll I posted on Kos...
Do you believe that HRC has launched 2012 Campaign?
Yes - 92 votes (83%)
No - 18 votes (16%)
Humpf....n
Mr. Uygur...yo
Both she and her human oil-slick of a marital partner have been campaigning for McCain for weeks.
There is one other partial explanation for her breathtaking tenacity in this instance.
"Bomb-Bomb" McCain is Israel's first choice but Hillary is a close second favorite. Especially with the truckloads of defense industry money that has blown her way. (Soon it will be payback time for Ms. C.)
McCain is just the perfect bloodthirsty head case that will happily do their bidding and Hillary is of course the closest thing we've got to Atilla-the-Hun. (Happiness is a warm Warhead. Bang, bang. Shoot-shoo
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
