Is Hillary Positioning for 2012?

The Politico laid it out very clearly yesterday - and solidified what we've known for weeks - this race is over. Obama has the nomination.

Even Hillary Clinton's own campaign admits it! Politico reports, "One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives. In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe."

It's somewhat hilarious to watch the media eat up the campaign spin on the record, that she's got a great shot to win this and win the Presidency. Of course, the race gets a whole lot more boring with lower ratings when it's Obama vs. McCain, probably with a huge lull in the campaign, where - God forbid - the news media will actually have to go out and find and report news, and not just campaign talking points sent to them.

I've been trying to figure out for weeks why Hillary Clinton is still in this campaign because the math has been obvious for quite some time now. Even Mitt Romney had the - what would you call it, decency, wisdom, common sense - to drop out after he realized it was mathematically impossible (or next to impossible) for him to win.

There is one possibility as to why Senator Clinton might still be in this race, inflicting heavy damage on the presumptive Democratic nominee. That reason is Hillary 2012.

Now that's a heavy charge. I can't read her mind, so I don't know what her true intentions are. We can only judge based on her actions. Her staff understands and agrees that she has a very, very small chance of winning, but she is still willing to go after front-runner of her own party in the strongest possible words.

Look at what she has said about the man she privately believes will be the Democratic nominee for President:

He has not crossed the "Commander in Chief threshold" like John McCain has.

He cannot be trusted to answer the phone at 3am.

His only experience is a speech from 2002.

That he is disenfranchising voters in Michigan and Florida (even though she agreed to the same rules he did when those states stepped out of line in the primary process).

And, as Bill Clinton intimated yesterday, he doesn't love our country, like Hillary and McCain do.

Those are some serious blows against someone in your own party and might seriously hurt his chances of winning the general election. In fact, every day that Senator Clinton stays in the race is another day she spends money damaging Senator Obama. And every dollar she spends is a dollar in John McCain's pocket.

It almost makes you ask - does she want him to lose?

If Obama wins, then Senator Clinton couldn't run again until at least 2016 (unless something goes terribly wrong). At which point, she would be almost as old as John McCain is now. If she's ever going to become president, she has this narrow window.

On the other hand, if Senator Obama sustains serious political wounds going into the general election and winds up losing, then Hillary Clinton is sitting pretty in 2012.

In four years, John McCain will be 209 years old, and coming off a disastrous first term. We will still be in Iraq and the country will be dying for change. If you thought the voters wanted change now, imagine what the situation will be in 2012. Imagine how starved the electorate will be for a Democrat if McCain just spent four years replicating George W. Bush's policies - as he is adamantly promising to do on the campaign trail.

At that point, Senator Clinton would be able to swoop in and say, "See, you went with Obama last time and he lost, just like I told you. Now, nominate me, and I will take this White House back like we should have four years ago!"

Having narrowly lost to Obama in the primary, she would be in a great position to say "It's my turn! Let's get this right!"

Is she that cynical? Does she care that little about her own party or her own principles? Remember, a McCain win signs us up for more years in Iraq, a possible new war with Iran, an untold number of conservative judges on the Supreme Court, a probable overturn of Roe v. Wade, four more years of economic pain for the lower and middle class and ... no healthcare reform for another four years.

Is anyone that politically craven? To risk all that so they have a better chance of winning in 2012? I hope not. I hope she is just being delusional and thrashing about in misguided desperation as she continues to wound Obama going into the general election.

But if she is doing this on purpose - and she wants Obama to lose this time around so she has a better chance of winning in 2012 - she better make damn sure that news doesn't leak. Because that kind of political crime would be unforgivable. Unforgivable.

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Comments

[ClevelandTom]

I don't know if Clinton is preparing the ground for 2012 or not. If she is, it is a very poor political calculation.

If Obama is nominated and loses the general election, that loss will be attributed to the damage Clinton did in the extended primary. Clinton's Democratic opponents in the 2012 race are going to bring that up over and over again. I predict a groundswell of anti-Hillary sentiment will end her 2012 run in short order.

[dawlishgal]

Well said. In other words, she is damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. Let's hope that somebody (Pelosi?) manages to convince her of that before she does much more damage.

[northeast73]

that loss will be attributed to the damage Clinton did in the extended primary
============

of COURSE you will already spin it that way.

Did ya ever think its because ONLY HALF THE DEMS WANT HIM AND HE IS A WEAK CANDIDATE?

THAT is why he will loose. Dont blame hillary for that one.

[EinChicago]

It's only half the dems if you exclude Florida and MI. More like 60% don't want him if you do.

[StarkRavingNakedEmperor]

Cenk
Gee it is great to hear from you again thru this blog. I really miss you on Air America where they put that self-absorbed worthless screwball in your place--Press. Well, just consider yourself in august company-they only cut loose the very best like you, Malloy and Seder. Best wishes and I know you re-surface on the national airwaves again soon.

[ShawnMichel]

Thanks, Cenk.

The facts are in: Billary McClinton is, in fact, as greedy and craven as she appears. And yes, she is employing a scorched earth policy against Obama for precisely the reasons you've outlined. To deny this is to court delusion.

[cjbushwacker]

Why should see get out now when the Reverand Wright comments and a possible Rezco scandal is in the making.?

I am sure that the republicans will NOT use this in the general election. Their ads will show the video and explain that it was really taken out of context and remind the voters that Obama ended the controversy by giving an insirational speech on race.


Neither one has enough deligates to win. Obama and Clinton may end up as the person who will save the democrats in the general election

[margi]

She is fighting so hard because she realizes that , this time around is her only chance. No one would want her in the party after this. She said McCain is better than Obama. That's the worst sin she has committed as a democrat . After the kitchen sink , she will have to run by herself 2012 , not even independents would want her. She can form her own party , if she has some campaign money left. No donors would trust her with their $$ after the pizza party she gave for $95 000.
April 25, Peter Paul lawsuit against her will begin , check youtube.

[dawlishgal]

She has already formed her own party....it is called the DLC.

[ResidentChimp]

Who said Liberals don't have a sense of humor? Or at least a sense of the absurd. Obama will be running in 2012 regardless of who wins the 2008 Dem nomination. McCain is a shoo in at this point.

[cjbushwacker]

Once again a "Fair and Balanced" article from the Huff. I'm so sorry Obama wasn't running against John Kerry, then you would have someone who was a quiter. You have backed a candidate that has no chance to win in the general election. Us life long democrats reall appreciate your misguided effort to give this country a third bush presidency.

Obama's connection to Wright and his envolvment in th the Rezco scandal make Obama unelectable. Neither candidate will has enough delegates to win and Clinton staying in the race may save the party as more comes out about Obama. Also, Why is Obama fighting so hard to keep michigan and Florida out of the mix? Could it be that he knows he can't win in those states?

[peascott]

Hillary will not win and what part of that don't you understand. She losing the primary and if she steals that she will definitely lose the general. Hillary is disliked by the majority of African Americans, the same ones that the Dems need to win. Bill started out likable but of course he screwed that up as well. Get a clue, she is so disliked that IF she is nominated there will be a huge number of black voters who will stay at home.

[JamesRiddle]

Once again a "Fair and Balanced" reply from a Fox News Follower. who claims he is a Democrat. Your shoe in candidate John McCain has no chance of winning becuase of his conection to the radically intolerant views of a host of preachers who have endorsed him ( their nutty sermons are floating around the net) and becuase of the Senators shameful Keating Savings and Loan treachery and the anti-middle America lobbyists who run his campaign. Also, he is a crazed loon who has repeatedly shown through insane statements that he knows zilch about the Iran - Iraq connection. This cretin of a man is not a maverick. He is an insane war monger, and an ignorant one at that.

[cjbushwacker]

I om a LIFELONG democrat who has seen Gore refuse to go after Bush and expose the kind of idiot he is. Then I watched Kerry windsurf his way from beating Bush and I am sick of LOSING to these despicable people. You people who insult the Clintons show your ignorance about the only democrat in my lifetime to win twice, even as the GOP slime machine tried their best to bring him down. Clinton reversed the deficit of Bush 1 and gave the middlle class the best economy in my lifetime. Quit using Republican sliming terms like Billary. The Facts are that Hillary IS vetted and we DO NOT know what else will leak out about Obama. And YES the Wright connection IS a serious blow to his chances of winning . So is the Rezco trial because he was an attorney representing Rezco which is in trial now and may carry over into the General election and I am worried about losing again. The primary IS NOT OVER, and if Hillary is hurting Obama's chances then Obama is hurting Hillary's chances, that is how it works. The Fair and Balanced comments refers is because this web site and many Obama supporters ARE acting like Fox News. I WILL vote for Obama if he wins the nomination because I hate what the Republicans have done to our country. Can you say the same if Hillary wins?

[patriots12345]

cjbushwacker, Billiary has more dirty laundry. The repugs will make the general election all about Hillary and Bill.
This is coming from a life long Dem so don't give me the song and dance about not wanting the Dems to win.
With her negative campaigning she is tearing the party apart.

[AbbieXHoffman]

You could argue that perhaps Obama should bow out. Even he admits he is reminded that he is not as electible as some other candidates. Of course he shouldn't bow out and neither should Hillary. STOP TRYING TO STOP THIS. Hillary will bow out if her money runs out, which is likely. It's all about money at the end of the day.

Having said that, if the media did their job and vetted Obama earlier and did their research, we would not be in this position. This pastor thing would have come up earlier and we would have known by now if he is capabale of overcoming it. Either Clinton or Obama would have been the nominee by now. Blame the media.

By-the-way, who is this Cenk guy anyway? Does he just follow the lead of many of the other paranoid talk show hosts like Randi Rhodes and others?

[AbbieXHoffman]

Excuse me, but isn't this article DIVISIVE?

Are you new to politics Cenk and anyone who agrees with him, or are you just angry and paranoid? Anything can happen any day of the campaign to sink a candidate. Hillary wants the Whitehouse but I assure you, she does not want McCain to win. If she looses nomination (which is not a sure thing), she will fall in line. Clinton's would never risk their legacy of not being supportive dems after a primary.

Get a grip.

[funnyguy]

If intentions are determined by actual behavior---certainly a reasonable proposition---the author has a credible point. But what the Clintons are not factoring into their calculations is that their unprincipled behaviors in this campaign are creating a generation of Democrats who will never support Hillary for anything, now, in 2012, and/or ever.

[ILLRobinson]

Exactly the point I've been making to friends and colleagues.

People will slam Obama for his messaging, but it has really energized a new generation in thinking about politics. Rather than embrace this (or at least argue policy), the Clinton campaign has chosen to smear instead of presenting themselves the better.

Its been extremely disheartening and dispiriting - for a number of people I know.

[poster1122]

I agree with that assessment. Clinton tends to draw the bulk of her support from long time democrats. Obama has energized not just African Americans and liberal elites, but also a whole new generation of voters who've stayed on the sidelines. Clinton's voters tend to have been invested in the Democratic agenda for a lot longer. Obama brings in a generation who have been generally disaffected by the state of our politics to the point of indifference (maybe even hostility).

[PioneerKing]

Dear Cenk Uygur:

I thank you so very much for your concern about my campaign. I can assure you that I am not considering running for president in 2012. You have my word on that and I always tell the truth. Just ask the good people of NY. I assured them that I would not run for president if elected Senator and I did not disappoint them. Bill has forced me to run he said I owed it to Chelsea what mother would not do everything for their child. I'm only running under duress.

Best regards,
Hillary

P.S.
If I share a little secret with you will you, please, not tell anyone. ;-)
I'm just staying in the race to ruin the Obambi's chances of winning in November. John promised me he'd appoint me to the Supreme Court if I stayed in the race and helped destroy the Obambi.
You see, in actuality I'm an ultra conservative right wing republican masqurading as a democrat, at heart I'm still a Goldwater girl, and John knows this... hehehehe

[Leda]

It doesn't seem that anything Clinton has said has had done so much damage to his campaign. The Rev Wright matter has hit the Obama campaign harder than anyone wants to admit--- & Ms Clinton didn't break that story. why blame it on clinton-- they've probably helped his campaign since every criticism they make seems to elicit so much sympathy. Usually it just makes Obama look good.

[DRaymond]

Clinton didn't break the story (you presume)...but she has sure run with it.

And when Bill was going through his 'spiritual crisis' (also known as being caught red-handed in the Monica Lewinski affair) he may a public show of calling in Rev Wright for 'spiritual guidance'. Of course you don't need to make a press release to get spiritual guidance, it was a play to rebuild his credibility with black christians.

So after being so willing to be associated with Rev. Wright for political advantage in the past during his 'crisis' does he say a peep about these short clips being taken out of context to smear him?

Clinton is about Clinton. The ammount of damage she has already done to the party makes it pretty clear that she doesn't care about any political future but her own. How many downticket house, senate, and state offices has she already cost by focusing on 'experience' rather than 'change'?

[northeast73]

Clinton didn't break the story (you presume)...but she has sure run with it.
=========

Excuse me?? SHE SAID NOTHING ABOUT IT ALL WEEK.

and now the obama losers are critisising her for "not speaking out"

PATHETIC.

[naera]

Absolutely agree. Pretty identical to what the Clintons pulled on John Kerry in 2000 presidential campaign. The Clintons always have a personal agenda, just like mafias. Many New Yorkers who are Obama supporters question what Hillary will do when Obama inevitably gets the nomination - will she be crazy enough to hire a hit man? Yes, the Clintons are crazy...

[Mcbombisanutjob]

Blue collar racist for Hillary 2012!!

[ipitombi]

"In four years, John McCain will be 209 years old"... ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. You are right-on about Hillary positioning for 2012. Too bad for her, no one is going to want a bitter first lady running the country. She needs to pack it up and move back to Park Ridge, Illinois.

[axt113]

Its crossed my mind, but if she is she'll never get my vote

[PioneerKing]

AXT113

Four years is a long time, you will have forgotten all of this by then. I know that I can count on you.

[axt113]

Sorry, but I have a long memory when it comes to politics, and i never forget a betrayal, if Obama doesn't end up prez i'm going third party, I bet Nader will want voters for his 2012 run