The Republican Party is disintegrating in front of our eyes. The latest Gallup Poll has them leading in party identification in six states. Six! They're tied in two. That means they're trailing in 42 states!
They're down by 2 in Texas and Kansas, 12 in North Carolina and Virginia, and 16 in Kentucky. Virginia and Indiana went from "Competitive" to "Solidly Democratic" -- since 2008. If you thought 2008 was bad, these numbers would lead you to believe that 2010 might be even worse.
Now, I can't believe that this will hold up given historical precedent and the fact that the Republicans can be on the attack on every issue since they don't control any of the branches of government. They might be able to blame anything and everything that goes wrong on the Democrats and make some temporary gains in 2010 (though so far the numbers do not indicate that at all). But in the long run, these state by state numbers spell absolute disaster for the Republicans. The reckoning can't be far. I would guess it hits them -- and hits them hard -- by 2012.
In California, the Republican Party is 79% white. What's the big deal? The state is only 43% white. If you're basically a whites-only party in a state where whites are the minority, well, then you've got trouble. Unrecoverable, nearly permanent trouble.
But, of course, as you can see from the Gallup charts, it's not just in California. The Republicans are fighting a losing battle all over the country demographically. By losing the Hispanic as well as the black vote (let alone Jewish, Muslim and gay vote -- should I keep going?), they have put themselves in a hole they can't get out of.
But it's not just the demographics (and the Republicans stubborn unwillingness to adjust to these realities). They're also wrong on almost all of the issues. How long can you fight to make sure our health care system does not get reformed before people catch on to you? How long can you fight every program that helps the poor and the middle class and protects the rich before the majority of the country gets sick of you? How long before they realize that you do not have their best interests in mind?
Is there a popular program in America that the Republicans have not at some point opposed? Social Security? Medicare? Civil rights movement? Even, Cash for Clunkers. And now ironically they have become Cash for Clunkers. The corporations, the lobbyists and the rich keep pouring cash in to their campaign coffers, but increasingly all they're getting back are clunkers. Maybe it's time to trade them in.