The Hillary Effect

The Bradley Effect is a well-known political phenomenon where voters say they will vote for a black candidate to a pollster and then turn around and vote the other way when they are alone in the voting booth.

Today, a caller on our show made a great point as to why Hillary might have won in New Hampshire despite the fact that polls showed her losing by 10 points -- the Hillary Effect.

She said a lot of people don't want to say they are supporting Hillary Clinton because it is an unpopular thing to say and causes harsh reactions. So, they keep quiet about their support but vote for her anyway.

Then, we received this e-mail from Dawn, another closeted Hillary supporter:

"I have been supporting Hillary, and having to apologize for it, for a year. I can easily see myself being vague about it when asked by a pollster, but in the privacy of my voting booth I will vote for her enthusiastically."

There you have it. The Hillary Effect. This could easily be one of the contributing factors as to why the polls were so off in New Hampshire.

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Comments

[MartiP]

I have female Republican friends who are quietly telling me they will vote for her, but will not admit it publicly because of the backlash from family/friends (and husbands).

[EspressoAtNoon]

There we have it, women voting for the "wrong" candidate because she has a vagina.

[AnninCA]

Thank you for pointing the obvious out. I was surprised to learn how many of my own friends are closet Hillary supporters. They absolutely aren't talking about it because they do not wish to ruin perfectly good dinners and evenings when someone reacts by turning purple.

And, yes, I think that's PRECISELY why the pollsters were off and will be off again.

She is very admired by many, many people and that seems to upset the "boys" alot.

So lots of people keep it quiet how impressed they are by her.

[Researchguy66]

When you're at home and you get a call asking who you're going to vote for, there's a good possibility that you're within earshot of the rest of your family. I wouldn't call it lying per se...it's more like keeping domestic harmony.

[klondiker]

"She will almost certainly lose tonight."

Guess who said this?

CENK UYGUR.

Instead of coming up with reasons and explanations, it might be well to say, "I was wrong. I underestimated the ability of the Clintons to pull off improbable wins."

[milo9]

I think "Iron My Shirt" was the straw that broke the camel's back. I can't stand Clinton's politics, but I would have voted for her in protest. "Iron My Shirt" is so wrong in so many ways that it's difficult to imagine who concieved that idea unless, of course, it originated in Hillary's camp. In which case it was genius.

[loslobo]

At least Chris W was man enough to admit he made a mistake, while some continue to piss on an empty grave.

[lovethesinner]

The embarrasment in admitting support for Hillary may be in trying to defend a strictly partisan vote.

When people choose to vote for a candidate based on gender or racial identity, it can't be defended on the issues, and it appears shallow. It's a conversation stopper for most, and in New Hampshire, asking someone how they are going to vote is considered offensive.

We get enough political advertising on TV, why ask for more from somebody by declaring your preference? Life's to short to ask people to argue.

I thought voting was supposed to be a private affair. Why do I need to know who's ahead in the general population? Polling doesn't serve the people, it supports the main stream media.

[foreffectivegovernment]

That was my analysis from the start. The MSM, Republicans, and most of the Democratic Losers, have portrayed her as the Devil, when I can see that the real Devil is Republican Policies that have been taken to the max by George W. Bush. I think the part of the Democratic Party that supports Barack Obama is just playing into the hands of the Republican Party tactic that strives to get the weakest Democratic cadidate nominated.
This worked with everyone except Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter since 1972. Look it up!!!!

[BionicWoman]

It is true that it is hard to admit one is a Hillary supporter. I work in a large law firm filled with white - advantaged - greedy men who are basically clones of each other. They have all been posturing and stating that Hillary can't win because she is too polarizing. If I say I'm for her - they just scoff at me. Well, what they are really saying is that Hillary is not sucking up to them and they are afraid to admit that their party is over. All you men out there have ever done is make a mess of this planet. So, buddy-boys, listen up. You are so through!!!!

[aleco]

My problem with Hillary is that despite what she now says, I don't know what she really stands for. Is she for the war in Iraq or against the war? Is she for universal health care or something that first and foremost benefits the insurance companies? I don't thrust her political motives. Is she for the people or the special intersts? We as a nation would truly be "rolling the dice" with her as president (to borrow a phrase from her husband).

P.S. I remember Hillary saying in one of the early debates that with her as president we would have universal health care by the end of her second term in office. That would be nine years from now. I may not be alive by then. So, how committed is she, really?

[JacktheBlogger]

I have the perfect slogan for a newly revitalized Hillary campaign:

YOU TOO CAN EXPERIENCE THE CHANGE...
CHANGE THAT COMES WITH EXPERIENCE!

To my mind, that sounds more like the real Hillary Effect!

P.S. I am Jack the Blogger and I approve the use of this message by the Hillary campaign.

[patb]

Obama may be the second coming. He says he wants to unite America as Bush said.

Why on Tuesday night did every Black on CNN and MSNBC play the race card when Obama did not win N.H.? In my opinion this divided the Country again. Brought up race relations I thought had gone away. Even Donna Brazil that was on the Clinton band wagon (8) eight years ago. UNFORGIVABLE to tear down what Obama has been trying to build. Just think what he could do for Africa as President of America.

[outnow]

So first the closet racist will say he'd vote for Obama, and then, turn around and vote for Hillary because she's White. Later, that voters and others such as undecided independents would vote for Edwards or John McCain because they are White male?

American voters vote against their own economic interests in every election because the majority are not wealthy and need policies of the liberal left. Instead, these voters vote for the benefit of the very wealthy by voting Republican because of their prejudices and stupidity.

If the voters would only realize that it is the consumer/worker vs. the corporations which screw the former, America would not be in the situation it is today. Consumers would go green on energy, protect domestic jobs and manufacturing, provide better education, limit the imperialism and militarism, maintain infrastructure, create jobs in the public sector, regulate predatory practices, and have a single-payer universal health care system as a fundamental right.

Instead we have a "he said, she said" battle between two "triangulating" candidates who are technically Republicans (tort reform, free trade, militarism). If you believe that either Hillary or Obama represent "change," you need a course in political science and a course in economics. Both are corporate whores who propose to allow the People representatives to ostensibly sit at the "big table" begging for crumbs from the corporate masters.

[Absintheforall]

Two things tipped it for Hillary:

1) The "Iron My Shirt" hecklers,

2) The "Itty Bitty Tear" episode.