The Hillary Effect
The Bradley Effect is a well-known political phenomenon where voters say they will vote for a black candidate to a pollster and then turn around and vote the other way when they are alone in the voting booth.
Today, a caller on our show made a great point as to why Hillary might have won in New Hampshire despite the fact that polls showed her losing by 10 points -- the Hillary Effect.
She said a lot of people don't want to say they are supporting Hillary Clinton because it is an unpopular thing to say and causes harsh reactions. So, they keep quiet about their support but vote for her anyway.
Then, we received this e-mail from Dawn, another closeted Hillary supporter:
"I have been supporting Hillary, and having to apologize for it, for a year. I can easily see myself being vague about it when asked by a pollster, but in the privacy of my voting booth I will vote for her enthusiastically."
There you have it. The Hillary Effect. This could easily be one of the contributing factors as to why the polls were so off in New Hampshire.
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One thing I do like about Hillary, even though my vote will go to Edwards, is that she has guts. If there are dirty tricks in the swing states, I suspect Hillary will challenge the vote count to the bitter end. If Kerry had done that, we might not be in the terrible situation we're in now.
The Diebold Effect?
7 Point Swing for Clinton Over Obama in NH's Diebold Precincts
http://www
Chris Matthews: Raw EXIT POLL Data 'Indicated Significant Victory' for Obama in NH
http://www
- Tom
ALthough her record doesn't really support it, it would wonderful if Hillary won and turned out to be a stealth-leftie, just as Bush was a stealth-criminal candidate.
Play the game to get in, say what's necessary to win the ludicrous popularity contest that US presidential elections have become, then govern in the way you always intended.
More than most, Hillary has seen the noxiousness of the repigs up close. First Bill, then herself being vilified every single day in the wingnut media for, what, the last 15 years or so? Not to mention the vile attacks on Chelsea.
I'm hoping for the kind of Dem government that Ted Rall proposed, in the style of post-WW2 DeGaulle - simply declare the previous admin criminal and unelected, then scrub from the books every law that they made, since they were: A) Disastrous for the most part
B) Put in place by criminals who never legitimately held the office.
It won't happen, but it's a nice thought.
While there has been a lot of speculation on why Clinton won I have yet to see anyone articulate what I believe is one of the main reasons for her support in the Democratic Party. Unlike Obama she is not likely to forgive the Republicans for their abuse of power and position. If she gets elected every indication shows that she will quite literally toss all the Republican hacks and loyal Bushies out on the street. Many myself included, while we like Obama do not want reach an accommodation with the selfish arrogant Republicans; we want them tossed back into the gutter that they came from. This is of course is why the Republicans hate her so much, they know if she gets elected she will hold them accountable for their abuses and crimes. It is also why Democrats quietly vote for her, while they publicly say they want to get along in reality they want both justice and revenge.
I think this phenomenon may also help explain the outcome in the Iowa caucuses. Voting in the Democratic caucuses was not by secret ballot but by people openly grouping under the banners of the individual candidates. The caucuses were largely neighborly gatherings where everyone would know how all their neighbors voted. I suspect that many Iowa voters wished not to offend neighbors or family members or teachers, students, employers and co-workers. Many probably did not want to submit themselves to harsh scrutiny for making an unpopular choice. I think several Iowa voters either went with the (Obama) flow or stayed home.
Maybe it's the Gore 2000 effect. The media loved Bush and hated Gore. We all know how well that turned out. Watching the media giving Hillary the Gore treatment the voters in New Hampshire said, "Not again."
I personnally am sick and tired of all the Clinton bashing I have heard for what seems to be years, but people do have short memories, apparently to short. Do any of you remember the relentlist Ken Star, he couldn't pin Whitewater on Hillary or Bill, so he threw Susan McDougal in jail for 22 months and let her husband die of a heart attack in jail. Then along came the ever lovely Linda Tripp. And then of course the even more lovely Congress trotting out their Bibles and screaming for Clinton blood, even when they knew they could not convict for a blow job. And guess what, they are still hanging around, and although Clinton has not been President for what seems forever, they blame him even for the shit bush has pulled. Why the hell can a blow job be impeachable, and lying about a war where our young people are dying for profiteers not be impeachable. When Clinton was in office, this Country was in good shape and he left this asshole we got now with a surplus of funds which has turned in Trillions of a deficit. I think what people cant stand is the fact that the Clintons were and are smarter than most of the Repugs. And of course they had the Christian Coalition,that turned the republican party in the party of god, to contend with. All in all there was an estreme rightwing conspiracy out for their hide from the very beginning. I am also tired of the empty suits that are running against Hillary, men are all alike, A BIG PAIN IN THE ASS!!!!
And I'm a registered republican, not for long.
That certainly makes sense. Clinton-hating is such a disease that one needs to be prepared for a rebuke if you tell them you appreciate the Clintons (not "like" the Clintons; we're not choosing prom royalty nor voting in a popularity contest).
We need someone who knows how to govern. Unfortunately they need to campaign to get there and with an electorate that gave the Shrub two terms, nothing is more insane than campaigning--unless it's being interviewed for a job which is totally irrational.
That's actually a really interesting angle I never considered.
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