Virginia=Win; North Carolina=Landslide

Here is a handy dandy guide to watching election night. The East Coast states will report first. If John McCain is going to win, then he will win Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. And then it will take the rest of the night to figure out if he still has enough electoral votes. Obama's victory could be a lot easier to figure out.

If Obama wins Virginia - it's over. That simple. He is comfortably ahead in all of the blue states that John Kerry won in 2004. He is very likely to win all of those. He is also comfortably ahead in Iowa and New Mexico. So, that means all he has to do to get an electoral majority is win Virginia, or Ohio, or Florida, or Colorado. Any of them will do. If McCain wins three out of the four, he still loses.

So, unless something gargantuanly unexpected happens, if they call Virginia for Obama, you will know at that moment that he is the next President of the United States.

Notice North Carolina is not on the list of states that Obama needs. That's because if he wins North Carolina, then he probably won all of those other states anyway and he has blown John McCain out of the water. So, if they call North Carolina for Obama, that's the moment you know that we have a landslide on our hands.

Now, none of this is bound to happen. The polls are just polls, they are not actual votes. That's why they play the games on Sunday (and in this case, do the voting on Tuesday). But this is just a quick guide to watching the game. Virginia equals Obama win. North Carolina equals Obama landslide.

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Comments

[ginalee]

Unbelievable that Cenk's prediction is coming true!

[Harrier]

Those are all Republican states where voter fraud is the highest. If that is the case McCain could still win.

[wanttruth]

Vote Virginia--Go Obama!

[PeaceOnEarth62]

Come on Virginia!!

[BUTCHER111]

I’d Add West Virginia cause it’d be a landslide if he won there. Cause if McCain loses there, he’ll lose it big time.

Also, New Hampshire because McCain says they know him best and he thinks he can win, which Bush won in 2000, and if he loses that, It’d be bad for him since NH knows him best, as he says.

[navarro]

The problem is that a called win in Virginia or North Carolina may cause voters in the west to think it's in the bag. We can't afford that. Actually, now that I'm thinking about it -- it's exciting to watch election night coverage, hoping for your candidate to pull through, but... shouldn't we wait until everyone has voted to start reporting the results? I feel bad for Hawaiians -- the election is usually decided before they even vote.

[marthlois]

Being on the west coast, it doesn't seem fair to see the results coming in so early. BUT since I'm voting for Obama, I'll selfishly say that I don't think my little heart could take any more suspense:):)
Folks out here take their vote very seriously, even when the results are coming in and especially after what our country has been through with stolen elections.

[Emlyn]

I have thought that perhaps the states in the West should vote a day early and hold the results until the East has voted the next day. It would be nice if we waited until Hawaii voted instead of making the West Coast and Hawaii stepchildren in this voting process. A lot of our people don't vote once the Eastern vote has come in. They say it's no use, the person has won. We don't get a say.

[Keith52]

Please don't assume anything people!!! Everyone must vote no matter what happens on the East Coast. PLLLLEEEEA­AAAASSSEEE­EEE!!

[nancytheragingliberal]

This is for the under 30 crowd. Get to bed early, then, get your sorry A**es out of bed, stand in line and VOTE. Bring your i-pod, stool, whatever , to make yourselves comfortable in line and VOTE. In 2004, you decided to roll over and look where that got us. Plan to stand for 2 to 10 hours. Geeze, states have had 8 years to improve the mess, but the mess is going strong. We have to play on the "republic" party nasty turf b/c they are competent, when it comes to lying, cheating, stealing, you name it. Massive numbers of voters will squash their game-plan to steal, yet another election. Two words: Sarah Palin as your next Prez. Does that do it for you?

[AmericasMostGangsta]

Two words: Sarah Palin as your next Prez. Does that do it for you?


If that doesn't do it for you, you need shock paddles.

[PhiLLyinDaLLaS]

Two words: Sarah Palin as your next Prez. Does that do it for you?
----------
(I voted early) Palin as prez is the SCARIEST thing I could ever imagine.

[Keith52]

Could not have said it better myself, Nancy. Thanks.

We need a MANDATE from the voters. So everyone MUST vote even if Barack wins East Coast States. Everyone!!!!

[XME]

I'm a Virginian who's been working to "get out the vote", and everyone here working their butts off is determined to have our 13 EVs go to Obama.

BTW, I received a robocall this evening from VoteForChange.com, informing me that, contrary to flyers that were sent out in VA, Democrats do NOT vote on the 5th this year!!

[Yermammy]

If you don't go out and vote, don't even DREAM ABOUT IT. Because that's all it'll be... a BAD dream.

[Jelperman]

If only Zombie Jesse Helms were alive to see Obama become President and his state go blue!

[imfedup]

That would be so SWEET!

[psue321]

There was just a story on CBS news about a flyer making the rounds in parts of Virginia (African Amrican heavy areas) that because of heavy turnout Repubs should vote on Tues, and Dems on Wednesday. If you live in any areas where this may be happening please make sure your local news stations are reporting this and getting the correct info out there. If you're not seeing corrections already bombard the stations with calls.

[pfc1369]

As an old alum, I say to Dukie Liddy Dole, and all Old North Staters, godless and otherwise...on election day:

Go Heels!

[Dap]

Dear Brother Cenk,
Have you been readimg my notes? You"re exactly correct, all the States Senator Kerry won in 04, plus 19 ECV (electoral college voyes) is a win. Virgina has 13 ECV, which leave only 6 ECV needed amomg the remaining States. Good call Cenk. Agape.

[liberalgeorgiagirl]

I think Obama may take Georgia as well. I waited in line to early vote today in my little Atlanta suburb for FOUR hours. The poll workers said it has been like this for 2 weeks now and that Monday night they worked until 1am to clear everyone who was in line.I would say the african americans were voting 4-1 over whites where I was. It was such an amazing experience. I really don't think the pollsters have any idea of who the new electorate in the south is.