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Charles D. Ellison

Charles D. Ellison

Posted: January 12, 2010 04:36 PM

Bay State Debacle for Dems?

What's Your Reaction:

Is the Massachusetts special Senate election really that tight? And can Republicans claim some sort of "moral victory" absent a win for the seat vacated by the tragic death of Ted Kennedy (D)? This is a rather peculiar question for a state as reliably Democratic as Massachusetts. It makes us wonder why we're asking it. Democrats - and those leaning to that side - will eagerly call a "win" a "win." You can't cut and sample the results like a DJ nor flex muscle on No. 2. Ultimately, "moral victories" are corruptibly empty, as is the attempt to spin a loss into such. And, seriously, is there anything moral about the political?

But, there is a point in the empty "anti-victory" if you're attempting to flip it into a larger cause or movement. Herein lies the concern with a very blue state like Massachusetts. Republicans have been toying around with anti-establishment rhetoric while attempting to harness wild horses like the Tea Party movement for over a year now.

A single-digits loss by Scott Brown (R) to Martha Coakley (D) further stirs that pot - and can result in national fundraising dividends for Republicans if it's too close for comfort or call. In that sense, it's an internal moment of glory, maybe something to raise a lighter to, but nothing to flame a stogie on.

Dems should be throwing everything they've got into this race. Voters, thanks to the economy, are fickle and angrily unpredictable. Thinking like an insular partisan will get you a rabid bite in the cheeks. Think outside the realm of possibility, the once unthinkable notion that some voters aren't feeling Main Man's executive style or his late focus on jobs in favor of a push on health care.

It comes as no surprise that the President hasn't entertained any plans for a last minute stump for Coakley, which may give an uncomfortable glimpse into the head of your average Bay State voter. Folks on the left should proceed with caution, from the West Wing to the DNC.

We shouldn't even have a conversation about a tight race to fill that seat. Now, we are, and the implications for the 2010 cycle are Godzilla-size if Democrats lose a state famous for its blue-tinged lock. The simple fact we are means Republicans have scored a significant point by virtue of a "what if." It's all psychological, thereby creating the kind of eleventh hour wave effect needed to mobilize that state's skinny right base while Jedi mind tricking frosty independents and Democrats. Still, Republicans should worry that independent candidate Joseph Kennedy's anti-tax tirades may be enough to pull some contrary conservatives, particularly from the middle to the west edge of the state. Not all politics in Massachusetts is Boston, machine party-driven as that state may be. The reason behind Coakley's cunning demand for Kennedy's presence at a recent candidate's debate.

There is now the visualization of a New Jersey or Virginia-style upset, with Brown able to appear as the more "attractive" candidate in contrast to the stale Coakley (Dems should be game to this after hitting fouls on cats like Deeds and Corzine). Reports of Coakley's lack of energy should be cause for alarm.

The other factor is Governor Deval Patrick, the embattled incumbent up for re-election who - last checked - is only a point or two ahead in a three-way matchup. The questions are few within the Beltway about how this plays out for Coakley. Even with an independent in that mix, an unpopular Patrick is barely edging ahead. Democrats should be concerned how the Senate race impacts Patrick's chances and how Patrick's polling could help Brown find lucky charms.


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10:30 AM on 01/13/2010
Beth said:

"But I do not believe, from what I have read, that's he's a Tea Party kind of guy."


Beth, I think you misinterpreted abyss' comment. Abyss' comment had no relation to the truth, it was simply the sort of boilerplate bs you hear from campaign spokesholes.
11:54 PM on 01/12/2010
I am not sure what the author was trying to say. Is it the authors opinion that it is good for the Repubs or the Democrats if it is a close but a D win?

Was he just trying to lightly say the candidate is flawed, a la Jersey?
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Charles D. Ellison
03:45 AM on 01/13/2010
In response to SamanthalAdams (appreciate the comment): At the moment, it's probably looking better for Republicans by virtue of the conversation taking place. Our consideration of a strong GOP showing in a heavily blue state should be worrisome for Democrats and says something about the candidate they are fielding. Coakley, by the gauge of a Rasmussen poll released yesterday, is only 2 points ahead (although Rasmussen is accused of having a GOP slant, it's somewhat accurate at times). Also problematic for Democrats is Brown's recent fundraising numbers, in which he recently passed the $1 million mark. The DSCC's decision to drop over $600,000 in ad money into the race means this won't be walk in the park for Dems.
08:13 PM on 01/12/2010
I've read a lot about how our side keeps saying that this isn't 1994 and we won't be surprised like we were back then. But what's Martha doing then?
Everybody says she's been coasting and expecting an easy win and like thinking she doesn't have to try hard because she lives in Massachusetts. But she's going to chase after that Republican turtle and catch him at the finish line now that she knows she's in a race. And she needs us all to pitch in and help her a lot with more money and volunteering for her because she was too lazy to do her own job. That just makes me mad.
I don't want the Republicans to win but I'll laugh if Martha loses. She doesn't deserve to be a Senator based on what she's shown so far, which is a tendency to be completely surprised by the voter discontent everybody's been talking about for months.
She's supposed to work for us. She's supposed to want this bad enough to work really hard for it and show that she's the right woman for the job and will keep working really hard for us once she has it.
Being progressive isn't about asking the people to work extra hard because our leaders don't want to or think they have to. They're our leaders. What about setting an example for the rest of us?
06:25 PM on 01/12/2010
New rasmussen poll shows Coakley with slight lead over Brown:

http://mittromneycentral.com/2010/01/12/new-poll-on-massachusetts-senate-race-coakley-d-49-brown-r-47/
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intotheabyss
Imperialism is a form of insanity.
05:46 PM on 01/12/2010
I'm a Mass. native. I watched the debate last night. If Brown beats Coakley, I think I'll go live in a cave for the next 6 years. He was truly awful! He's a teabagger for cripes sake! I have to believe the people of this state are more intelligent than that. Please!!!!!
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Mikecoatl
06:29 PM on 01/12/2010
If Rick Perry is still governor of Texas a year from now, I may well join you.
09:13 AM on 01/13/2010
I did not watch the debate -- I live many states away. But I do not believe, from what I have read, that's he's a Tea Party kind of guy. It sounds like he's pretty centrist. In fact, on a different site yesterday, a convservative asked if Brown weren't a RINO, and -- if Brown pulls out a win -- conservatives wouldn't be sorry 6 months down the road.
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cgeorgan
Proud American-Canadian Libertarian
05:24 PM on 01/12/2010
I don't follow how Sen. Kennedy's death was "sudden" or "tragic" - the man lived to be 77 (not bad, I've seen worse) and he was diagnosed with cancer over a year before he actually died.