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Charles Franklin
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Entries by Charles Franklin

Why Ames (Apparently) Doesn't Matter

(15) Comments | Posted August 14, 2011 | 10:21 PM


After yesterday's excitement over the Ames straw poll, let's take a look at the history and consequences. With Tim Pawlenty's withdrawal today, it seems Ames does indeed matter, at least for negative consequences, and Michele Bachmann's appearances on Sunday morning shows also hints at...

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Support for Gay Marriage Continues to Increase

(311) Comments | Posted March 3, 2011 | 2:51 PM

Support for gay marriage continues to rise in a new Pew Center for the People and the Press poll, completed 2/22-3/1/2011. The latest poll shows support at 45% and opposition at 46%, the narrowest margin in the history of Pew polling on the issue. Some polls by other...

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High Quality Local Poll Reporting

(0) Comments | Posted August 11, 2010 | 3:00 PM

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Some Perspective on Real GDP Growth

(0) Comments | Posted July 30, 2010 | 4:18 PM


Today's GDP numbers provide little comfort to Democrats hoping a robust "recovery summer" will aid them in November. GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4%...

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Research 2000, DailyKos and Transparency

(0) Comments | Posted June 29, 2010 | 4:17 PM

Today the polling world was rocked by claims that polls by Research2000 for DailyKos are substantially flawed:

We do not know exactly how the weekly R2K results were created, but we are confident they could not accurately describe random polls

Coming on the heels of recent arguments...

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Obey (D-WI-7th) to Retire

(0) Comments | Posted May 5, 2010 | 4:34 PM


A bit of a parochial post but with a national figure at its center and reflecting the national midterm forces.

David Obey announced his retirement...

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March Unemployment in the States

(0) Comments | Posted April 16, 2010 | 4:38 PM


March unemployment rates for the states are out today. Some down slightly, some up or steady. Here is the lede from the BLS report:

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Generic Ballot Trends

(0) Comments | Posted April 12, 2010 | 9:23 AM


Generic Ballot time. Mark has a piece at National Journal today that will soon be linked to here in his Monday post. Meanwhile here is a...

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Obama as Reagan, cont'd

(0) Comments | Posted March 30, 2010 | 5:27 PM


I've been pointing out the similarities between the circumstances of Presidents Obama and Reagan for a while now. See an earlier post on this here....

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Recess Appointees and Time to Confirmation

(0) Comments | Posted March 29, 2010 | 2:41 PM


President Obama made 15 recess appointments over the weekend, the first of his presidency. The White House announced the appointments and made their case based on...

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HCR Vote Probabilities For the Undecided

(0) Comments | Posted March 19, 2010 | 1:28 PM

The "undecided" health care votes are mostly right where you'd expect: marginal Dem districts and among the more moderate House Democrats. There are a few outliers that...
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About "True" Unemployment

(0) Comments | Posted March 5, 2010 | 5:43 PM


Today's unemployment rate was announced as 9.7%. But some articles mention a "true" unemployment rate of 16.8%. How can both numbers coexist, and which is...

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Unemployment Holds at 9.7%

(0) Comments | Posted March 5, 2010 | 11:58 AM


The national unemployment rate held steady in February at 9.7%, stubbornly down from the high of 10.1% in October and stubbornly refusing to decline from January's...

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Texas Primary: Message Success, Message Failure

(0) Comments | Posted March 3, 2010 | 11:17 AM


The Texas GOP primary for governor is a lesson in both message success and message failure. Gov. Rick Perry was badly behind a year...

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Same Data, Two Charts, Two Implications

(0) Comments | Posted February 17, 2010 | 11:01 PM

This chart from Organizing for American drew a lot of comment today. On its face, it is a striking and strong contrast between the Bush and Obama...
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How Massachusetts Votes Shifted

(0) Comments | Posted January 20, 2010 | 4:28 AM

The distribution of the vote shifted for Martha Coakley but not for Scott Brown last night. That was the key to Brown's win.

The top left of...
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Massachusetts Election Night Trends

(0) Comments | Posted January 20, 2010 | 4:04 AM


We liveblogged these last night. Compulsion makes me post the final versions with 100% of precincts reported. Do note that it is common for the final...

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Solid Brown Lead in Final MA-Sen Models

(0) Comments | Posted January 18, 2010 | 6:31 PM

Republican Scott Brown holds a lead in all 18 alternative models of the Massachusetts Senate race polls, now including all polls released through 6:00 p.m. Monday. Our...
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What to believe about Massachusetts Senate Polls

(0) Comments | Posted January 18, 2010 | 12:14 AM

There has been a wider than normal range of polling results in the last two weeks from the Massachusetts Senate special election. This has been further clouded...
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Obama as Reagan

(0) Comments | Posted December 6, 2009 | 5:51 PM


I've been struck for some time by the similarity of circumstance between Presidents Reagan and Obama. Both replaced deeply unpopular predecessors. Both enjoyed significant gains for...

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