THE BLOG

NC and IN Sensitivity Update

05/05/2008 04:11 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

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As we close in on tomorrow's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the "standard" and "sensitive" trend estimates have largely converged.

In North Carolina the standard estimator puts Obama at 50.1% and Clinton at 41.5%. The sensitive estimator has it Obama 49.5% and Clinton 42.2%. Or, a margin in the standard trend of +8.6 for Obama vs +7.3 in the sensitive estimate.

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In Indiana, the standard estimator puts Clinton up 49.5% to 43.3% for Obama. Switching to the sensitive estimator makes it Clinton 51.2% to Obama's 43.5%. Or a Clinton advantage of 6.2% for the standard estimator versus 7.7% for the sensitive one.

Either way the polls are seeing a split decision tomorrow. Anything else will be a very interesting surprise.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.