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Sensitive Trends Update: IA, NH, SC and US

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1IAReps1229.png

Here is an update comparing the standard "blue line" estimate of poll trends with the more sensitive "red line", and a simple 5 poll moving average for comparison.

I talked at length about these estimators and issues related to them in an earlier post here, so won't comment further. See the earlier post for details.

These data include polls released through December 29, with ARG's 12/26-28, Research2000's 12/26-27, Strategic Visions 12/26-27 and LATimes/Bloomberg's 12/20-23,26 polling as the latest from Iowa.

2IADems1229.png

3NHReps1229.png

4NHDems1229.png

5SCReps1229.png

6SCDems1229.png

7USReps1229.png

8USDems1229.png

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

Update: We have added regularly updating versions of these charts on our Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and National primary pages.