National trends are fun, but states matter. Here are the trends by category of status in our stae ratings. The national mashup of state trends (gray line) is showing a last minute downturn, but that is driven almost entirely by the selection of state polls we are getting here at the end of the campaign. If we focus just on tossup and lean states (yellow line) we see recent gyrations with a small move up at the end. If we look at pure tossups (purple line) there are similar gyrations and a smaller late upturn.
Bottom line: it all comes down to the tossups in IN, FL, OH, NC, MO. And McCain must pull in Obama leading VA and PA to get to 270.
I wanted to upload some plots of these key states, but the load on our servers is making posting problematic at the moment. So check the maps for these key states.
Have a good election, and a good day after.
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