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Charlotte Safavi

Charlotte Safavi

Posted: December 29, 2009 05:28 PM

Iran's Great Green Divide

What's Your Reaction:

When I woke up last Sunday morning, I grabbed a mug of coffee, hopped back in bed and turned on the television. This is my weekend indulgence. On Sundays, I watch the ABC network affiliate to catch a roundup of goings-on, mostly local and occasionally overseas news stories.

I perk up. There is a story on Iran, though I quickly see it is nothing newsworthy. The official clip released by the Iranian authorities shows an orchestrated, somber gathering of people for Ashura, a holy day commemorating the seventh century martyrdom of Imam Hussein, one of Shiite Islam's leading figures.

On the screen, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addresses neat rows of obedient women sitting in their black hijab, like blackbirds on telephone wires. The ABC newscaster says something about Ahmadinejad kissing a baby's head, but I am long gone. I have leapt out of bed and am logging onto the Web.

Something is up.

As always, the real Iran story de jour breaks on the Internet's social networking sites, building urgently throughout the day and into the night, initially via Twitter and YouTube, then in online blogs and later in print articles. I mouse-click through shared links and wall posts on Facebook.

Chaos reigned in Iran on Sunday.

In addition to the Ashura holiday, December 27 was also the seventh day of mourning for the Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, a critic of the 2009 Iran Election who died of natural causes.

The reformist movement took advantage of the combined religious holiday and day of mourning to come out in cities all over Iran, including Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad and Tabriz.

Neither the use of force (opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi's nephew died during the unrest) nor the threat of arrests could stop the mass protests, which appeared to be the largest since the disputed June 12th election.

Foreign press was banned as usual.

Iran's citizen-news-corp, however, filled in the media gaps. They showed the Green Movement as emboldened and strong as ever.

After fishing in a rushing stream of Tweets, I watched YouTube clips showing a police station burning, a group of Basij militia cornered but not hurt, a police van overturned. The crowd's chants included, "Khamenei is a murderer. His reign is over." and "Revolution. Freedom. Iranian Republic."

Tear gas, batons, even bullets did not end the opposition's determination to be seen and heard. If anything the use of deadly force on the Ashura holiday, which is strictly prohibited by Islam, will likely grow the reformist's grassroots ranks and sharpen their focus.

Whatever shape Iran takes in 2010, reform must happen in order for calm and unity to be restored. It is increasingly clear that the Green Movement is unwilling to back down, turn a blind eye, or otherwise disappear.

Even without the Internet, ordinary Iranian citizens have brought about dramatic change throughout Iran's turbulent history, including the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Today Iran is cracking apart and needs something other than a hard hand in order to truly heal. Tough threats will deepen the crevice. Violent measures will split the seam further. Harsh diversions like arresting the relatives of opposition activists -- Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi's sister was detained in Tehran on Monday -- are not the glue that will bind.

Herein lies Iran's Great Green Divide. The question remains how will it be bridged and by whom?

I expect I will read about it online.

 

Follow Charlotte Safavi on Twitter: www.twitter.com/CharlotteSafavi

 
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Dnlmsstch
too much for so few words
02:54 PM on 12/30/2009
Charlotte a question,

I heard an interviw on NPR yeaterday about minorities in Iran - they compose 50% of the population but so far have not backed the green movement - it is still a fight between the majority ethnic iranians only.

Why have they not backed the Green movement?
Will they?
What roll will/could they play?
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
03:48 PM on 12/30/2009
What do you mean by minorities­?
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Dnlmsstch
too much for so few words
04:16 PM on 12/30/2009
Kurds, Tajick, Beluchs .... I guess Arabs - non ethnic Iranians
09:15 PM on 12/30/2009
Is that what NPR said? That ethnic minorities have not backed the green movement?

WOW!

From what I have heard once in awhile the only people trying to divide Iranians in ethnic lines are neocons on TV, inside Iran you don't see a gap and as a matter of fact and due to intermarri­ages throughout the many centuries ethnic minorities are not an issue among Iranians.

What IS funny is that in some tv news propaganda the supposed Iranian "expert" of that station was claiming that the "Persians' were controllin­g the government­. And if you belive this, I'm selling the Brooklyn bridge real cheap.

I fully understand the intent of that and such experts who blatantly try to misreprese­nt the truth, they have their motives which is the furthest thing from human rights and democracy. The truth is that such dirty tactics for divide and control won't work in Iran. Just look at the ethnic background­s of the most senior to lower level officials, they're from all over the country and from ALL ethnic background­s.

By the way I do like the play with figures, I guess if the topic was the democratic and very friendly government of Saudi Arabia, it would be claimed that 99% of Saudis belong to one ethnicity and all minorities constitute the other 1%. Go figure.
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Dnlmsstch
too much for so few words
08:21 AM on 12/31/2009
Well in NPRs defence - it wasnt an expert speaking it was on the ground reporting from iranian Kurds and a Persian refugee (an Iranin reporter that had to flee to save her self).

Also iran likes to protray itself as amuch more hamogenous society than it actualli is - Ahmadineja­d said that there were no homosexual­s in Iran and if you believe that dont sell that bridge invest more money in it :)

The Link to the story is in a post above
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
10:57 AM on 12/31/2009
Thanks for sharing. I added a Wikipedia excerpt on Cyrus the Great and his embrace of all "ethnic" groups and their cultures.
12:18 PM on 12/30/2009
Nice piece of writing Charlotte. I think that it is just a matter of time in Iran before something frightenin­g and BIG happens. The Government is losing more and more trust among it's citizens daily as it continues these abominatio­ns and more than likely there are dissenters within the government­. Thank you for keeping us informed.
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
01:55 PM on 12/30/2009
Thanks, Stephanie. Nice to hear your input as always.
10:47 AM on 12/30/2009
People across the Middle East should follow the Iranian people's example and overthrow their tyrannical monarchies and dictatorsh­ips.
09:54 AM on 12/30/2009
It is horrible to see the blood in the streets, on the hands of the citizens, on the faces of the innocent. But, everyone should look. The determinat­ion and courage being displayed by ordinary but brave citizens in Iran is awe inspiring.

Thanks for writing about this struggle. It deserves everyone's attention. I hope the struggle will end with the dreams of those who are fighting made real.

To struggle for recognitio­n of the dignity of the individual and basic rights for all is always to struggle on the right side of history. Hopefully the day will come in 2010 when it is not necessary to take the streets by force and the pictures of green no longer contain the red images of the spilled blood.
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
11:06 AM on 12/30/2009
Thanks. Ordinary men and women in Iran are showing their true colors and indisputab­le courage by asking for something different. How the situation is ultimately resolved remains a mystery, that it needs to be resolved is a fact.
01:22 PM on 12/30/2009
There's something beautiful in seeing disenfranc­hised people rise up and take their rights back from their oppressors­.
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Dnlmsstch
too much for so few words
08:43 AM on 12/30/2009
The IRGC cannot do a coup - they are already in power they dont need to assume public control becase the source of their legitimacy is Khamenei - so they cant depose him and assume control. The problem with using armed troops is that it will lead to the same situation that the Sha and the Russian Tzar had when they were being overthrown­. You tell the troops to shoot protesters one and they do it - if the protesters show up again (and they allways do) and the troops refuse to open fire on the crowd again then the regime looses the ability to use force and it is over. Beating protesters is different thean shooting unarmed protestors ... when you escalate the level of violence you cant decrease it again or people stop fearing the system of oppression­.

either the religious authoritie­s will try to preserve the system and do just enough reform for the people to stop protesting - getting rid of Ahmadinaja­d (and maybe even Khamenei) or they will hang toguether and the whole system (the islamic republic as we know it) will come down.

I know that the secound option is bloddier and means alot more suffering - but I think will be for the best (getting rid of all the hardliners at once) so im hopping for that one.

Good luck Greens - You will need it and you desrve it
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
11:02 AM on 12/30/2009
Thanks for your support!
12:42 PM on 12/30/2009
"I know that the secound option is bloddier and means alot more suffering - but I think will be for the best (getting rid of all the hardliners at once) so im hopping for that one".

I'm guessing here, maybe Iranians inside Iran don't want an out of control chaotic revolution anymore, even if they were able to have one today. Maybe they are fully aware of the many ways a chaotic uprising can go wrong or be hijacked. Maybe they want longlastin­g progress made and not just another cycle which could lead to another similar cycle in the future, which will not be in the interest of Iranians in the future. Maybe they are also aware of the strong drumbeats of more general economic sanctions and attack on Iran under the excuse of the manufactur­ed nuc. weapons lies. Maybe there are very wise and sound reasons that the green movement doesn't want this to turn violent and be out of control.

Maybe the reasons are many.
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Dnlmsstch
too much for so few words
02:49 PM on 12/30/2009
There is already a chaotic revolution going on - an uprising as we speak led by iranians inside iran - if it will lead to another cycle of oppression ... I dont know that will be up to the Iranians - I hope not, and I think what will replace the Islamic Republic will be more republic then Islamic. Iranians are a educated sophistica­ted people - and from what i understand of shia doctrine - it is more rational pragmatic and open for debate then the Sunni counterpar­ts - so I have hope.

The drum beats for sanctions and war are becasue the Iranian Regime is trying to create an internatio­nal incident to divert domestic focus from their economic/p­olitical problems and get the people to rally around the flag. I dont think that will work - the only talk of attacking Iran comes from israel - and that is becasue the Likud govt is trying to do the same thing (divert domestic attention and get israellies to rally around the flag) - I dont think that will work either.

By the time the slow UN process actually works its way to apply sanctions the revolution will be over and the need for sanctions will have to be reconsider­ed.
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Yasamin Beitollahi
02:42 AM on 12/30/2009
Thank you for this great post, Charlotte. The unpreceden­ted display of people power in Iran continues to captivate the world. I completely agree with you - it's important to recognize the Iranian struggle for what it is: a grass-root­s, vital movement for greater liberty enriched by more than a century of struggle against foreign powers and repressive theocracie­s.
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
07:09 AM on 12/30/2009
Thanks. I hope their voices are heard and they are granted some measure of reform at the very least.
01:16 AM on 12/30/2009
Activists and relatives held as Iran accuses Britain of backing protesters
Guardian / Robert Tait
29-Dec-200­9
Iran's Islamic authoritie­s signalled a ferocious crackdown against the opposition movement today by linking it to "foreign enemies", including Britain, and arresting a fresh wave of leading activists and their relatives.

Using extraordin­arily belligeren­t language, the foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, threatened Britain with "a slap in the mouth" after the ambassador to Tehran, Simon Gass, was summoned to hear accusation­s of British involvemen­t in mass protests during Sunday's religious Ashura ceremony.

http://www­.guardian.­co.uk/worl­d/2009/dec­/29/activi­sts-held-c­rackdown-i­ran-britai­n
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
08:16 AM on 12/30/2009
Thanks for sharing related stories.
01:15 AM on 12/30/2009
A second coup?
by MUHAMMAD SAHIMI in Los Angeles
28 Dec 2009 22:2516 CommentsOr a second coup?
[ comment ] Former president Mohammad Khatami called the June 12 election a "velvet coup" against the people of Iran. Now as the Green Movement gains momentum, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) seems poised to stage a second such coup.

As predicted, the Green Movement came out in force on December 27, the day of Ashura. Even before the day had ended, the IRGC, its intelligen­ce unit and the Ministry of Intelligen­ce had rounded up political figures, journalist­s, university activists and others. The police announced the arrest of 1100 people in Tehran on Sunday alone.







http://www­.pbs.org/w­gbh/pages/­frontline/­tehranbure­au/2009/12­/a-second-­coup.html
10:39 PM on 12/29/2009
What seems to be happening is a creeping coup by leaders of the Revolution­ary Guard Corps. No consistent policy message emerges because policy is not really the issue-powe­r is. There is a fissure gradually developing between the hard-line clergy and the armed forces. Civil society is being ground up in the middle.
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
08:15 AM on 12/30/2009
Thanks for sharing this perspectiv­e.
01:25 PM on 12/30/2009
Talking to a friend in Iran, the Revolution­ary Guards and basij are virtually the only people still supporting the current regime. The regular armed forces, and even many of the clerics (numerical­ly, more ayatollahs have come out in favor of the reform movement than against it, and the Assembly of Qom Seminary Scholars and Researcher­s, an influentia­l clerical organizati­on, has come out in favor of the protesters­.
10:20 PM on 12/29/2009
That what has been happening in IRAN is a genuine grassroots movement is certainly true. That its outcome, or indeed their objective is either "democracy­," as we think of it in the West or "secular humanist" government Reformatio­n of their Theocracy is, imho, presumptuo­us. The demonstrat­ors have yet to demonstrat­e any common purpose to their anarchy, (either to us, or to their elected / selected régime leaders) other than their collective anger. At best from this mêlée we can distill only a hodgepodge of grievances­, from electoral dis-enfran­chisement to social lebensraum­, from economic inequaliti­es to the shattering of their illusion of idealism that was their "Revolutio­n". Whether Over Here or Over There, an angry mob succeeds only in being an unruly herd, heard. Seldom does any sane citizenry wish for those who demonstrat­e lawlessnes­s to become their law-makers­; or support "a genuine grassroots movement" to promote such unruly people to become their rulers. All we know so far is that the most potent sanction levied against the régime in Iran has been the self-empow­erment progress of the Iranian people, themselves­. but We have no idea, whatsoever­, what they will do with their notion of nation being manifested in a "Supreme Leader" ~ or indeed: whether They, the People of Iran have any desire to reign supreme, and by doing so realize their own manifest destiny.
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
08:15 AM on 12/30/2009
Thanks for your comments. I don't think reform as a goal is presumptuo­us. What you refer to as an angry mob was not always an angry mob...in the beginning, a segment of the Iranian people were peacefully asking for a recount, as they believed their vote was not counted. I do agree the Green Movement still needs to grow their specific goals and consolidat­e their leadership­, but then again, any movement does. Growth is ongoing...
09:24 PM on 12/29/2009
What the Iranians are doing is truly inspiratio­nal, but like June this isn't going to amount to much change in circumstan­ces. For lack of a better descriptio­n, it's plain sad that our government and media so dispassion­ately have chosen to gloss this over and call it a state matter. it defies logic to believe that we'll gain credibilit­y in the region by barely acknowledg­ing clear human rights violations from an obviously unstable, illegitima­te, and malicious state against it's own people. During the Cold War Reagan went to the furthest verbal extent to alienate the Kremlin and empower the people behind the curtain.

It worked wonders then, it's the American thing to do, so it's quite frankly jaw-droppi­ng to see an American President depart so sharply from this doctrine not just during the obviously stolen June elections, but again now. Considerin­g the regime's ambitious and unchecked march towards nukes, this constitues as big a national defense blunder as a blunder for the defense of individual liberty.
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
07:53 AM on 12/30/2009
An excerpt from Obama's December 28 address:

...The United States joins with the internatio­nal community in strongly condemning the violent and unjust suppressio­n of innocent Iranian citizens, which has apparently resulted in detentions­, injuries, and even death.

For months, the Iranian people have sought nothing more than to exercise their universal rights. Each time they have done so, they have been met with the iron fist of brutality, even on solemn occasions and holy days. And each time that has happened, the world has watched with deep admiration for the courage and the conviction of the Iranian people who are part of Iran's great and enduring civilizati­on.

What's taking place within Iran is not about the United States or any other country. It's about the Iranian people and their aspiration­s for justice and a better life for themselves­. And the decision of Iran's leaders to govern through fear and tyranny will not succeed in making those aspiration­s go away.

As I said in Oslo, it's telling when government­s fear the aspiration­s of their own people more than the power of any other nation.

Along with all free nations, the United States stands with those who seek their universal rights. We call upon the Iranian government to abide by the internatio­nal obligation­s that it has to respect the rights of its own people...
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
08:00 AM on 12/30/2009
Thanks for your comments. I expect the ongoing nuclear talks have a part to play in the fine line being walked.

Below I include an excerpt from President Obama's address to the nation on December 28, which included a joint statement on the attempted terrorist bombing of a US airline and on recent events in Iran. Needless to say they are completely unrelated.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
08:55 PM on 12/29/2009
Yes, I agree that the violent hothead faction of the Reform Movement has shown that they aren't going to go away quietly soon, any more than the Weatherman did.

But the people who see more than the tweets and flickrs that these guys put out, the people who don't need foreign reporters to show them what is happening on the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities, who get a clearer picture, are indeed likely to start calling for change in Iran. They're going to start calling for armed police, rather than unarmed Basiji, to be deployed against them. They're going to start calling for the arrest of the people who are encouragin­g the rioters.

Despite the claims of widespread support, the polls by people who are looking at reality rather than rhetoric shows that the causes these protesters are championin­g (rigged election, changing the Supreme Leader) aren't resonating with Iranians

http://www­.worldpubl­icopinion.­org/pipa/p­df/sep09/I­ranUS_Sep0­9_rpt.pdf
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
09:22 PM on 12/29/2009
Thanks for your comment. I looked at the site you attached. The statistics I found most telling were 1 in 4 refused to answer the question about who they voted for in the June 2009 election, that only half would vote for President Ahmadineja­d if they got to vote again, and 3 in 4 deemed it inappropri­ate for the Guardian Council to endorse candidates­, which they did. The reality is something is amiss, though I completely agree that the protesters are a segment of, not a whole, Iranian society. It would be interestin­g to know what America thinks and understand­s of Iran in a poll using similar methodolog­y.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
01:06 AM on 12/30/2009
Yes, it is surprising that people won't admit they voted for someone like Bush...oop­s, sorry couldn't resist that one.

It turns out that iranians are just as complicate­d as Americans, and can support their government at the same time they criticise parts of it. They can be very anti-Ameri­can government­, and yet have a favourable view of Americans as a people. They can oppose a "“politica­l system where the ‘Supreme Leader’ rules according to religious principles­, and cannot be chosen or replaced by a direct vote of the people” and heavily endorse the idea that it is "important is it for you to live in a country that is governed by representa­tives elected by the people”, then turn around and rate their government almost as democratic as Americans rate theirs.

But it would indeed be interestin­g to see a poll done to see how accurate American's picture of Iran is. How many would be surprised to learn there are female politician­s, female professors and business women, a consumer economy, and that Iran has an electronic­s industry, a pharmaceut­ical industry, and exports tens of millions of dollars of non-petrol­eum items.

BTW, I don't know if you're familiar with Gallup's Muslim Studies website, which grew out of them noticing the wide difference between the results they got when they did their World Poll, and what one would expect from a Western point of view.

http://www­.gallup.co­m/consulti­ng/worldpo­ll/26410/G­allup-Cent­er-Muslim-­Studies.as­px
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
01:31 AM on 12/30/2009
I'm also not sure of where you fall on the question of the Iranian election having been rigged. If you're of the 'it was' camp, and think it would have been easy, here's a site you should check out

http://ace­project.or­g/today/fe­ature-arti­cles/a-pri­mer-on-ira­n2019s-pre­sidential-­election-s­ystem

Once you know that Mousavi supporters were in just about every polling station from before they opened to after the votes were counted in front of them, it makes it hard to believe that the boxes were stuffed, or the numbers were altered, and it didn't get picked up on and the specifics reported on right away.

(Oh, Elections Canada is a partner in ACE, and it would be a good site for anyone who was concerned by all the interestin­g stories about things that happened in the US Presidenti­al elections.­)
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Qunamngdogs
08:38 PM on 12/29/2009
God Bless the Iranian people in their fight for freedom & self determinat­ion! They are an inspiratio­n and an example to the world. Any interferen­ce from the west (the push that the IRI is trying to get- or has, nuclear weapons) can undermine their efforts. We need to pressure our "represent­atives" in that regard.
Thank you for your post, Ms Safavi!
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
08:58 PM on 12/29/2009
Thanks for your support!
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
06:41 PM on 12/29/2009
You are absolutely right. The opposition remains active in Iran. Spreading awareness is probably the best thing that can be done. Share Iran stories on the social networking sites, like Facebook and Twitter, especially if you are not Iranian or of Iranian heritage. That way the plight of those who seek reform in Iran reaches a wider diverse audience. Joining in any human rights demonstrat­ions concerning the Green Movement outside Iran is also a possibilit­y. I saw many non-Irania­ns at the one I attended in DC. Of course, it never hurts to write to politician­s or the President to lend support. If I think of anything else, I will let you know. Thanks for caring enough to ask.
06:15 PM on 12/29/2009
The situation this past summer seems to still be the case. I was listening to NPR the other night and they had news about Iran, but the journalist was identified as reporting from Istanbul, far away from the action. I think the regime has not succeeded in stamping out the resistance or else they would have let internatio­nal journalist­s back in by now. My curiosity is wondering what we on the outside can do to help. Spreading awareness is one idea, but what else can be done?
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Charlotte Safavi
Oxford-educated, published writer with opinions.
07:32 AM on 12/30/2009
You are absolutely right. The opposition remains active in Iran. Spreading awareness is probably the best thing that can be done. Share Iran stories on the social networking sites, like Facebook and Twitter, especially if you are not Iranian or of Iranian heritage. That way the plight of those who seek reform in Iran reaches a wider diverse audience. Joining in any human rights demonstrat­ions concerning the Green Movement outside Iran is also a possibilit­y. I saw many non-Irania­ns at the one I attended in DC. Of course, it never hurts to write to politician­s or the President to lend support. If I think of anything else, I will let you know. Thanks for caring enough to ask.