'Bush Fatigue' Unlikely to Increase Caucus Turnout by Much

This is a collaborative reporting effort between the Huffington Post's OffTheBus and the Iowa Independent.

Reported by Paul Abrams, Kristen Anderson, Christian Avard, Jennifer Engevik, Steven Greenberg, Brian Fairbanks, Mayhill Fowler, Melissa Hapke, Cheryl Lynn Helm, Kati Hollis, Nisha Jani, JoAnne Lindsley, Barbara Mazor, Andre Noren, Kelly Nuxoll, Heather Pritchard, Neil Rodriguez, Sandra Thompson, James Trimarco

Speculation that widespread "Bush fatigue" may translate into a tsunami of Democratic turnout for the Iowa caucus seems to be misplaced. A joint investigation by HuffPost's OfftheBus and the Iowa Independent suggests that turnout in this year's Iowa Caucuses is unlikely to be much higher than it was in 2004. And while frustration with the Bush administration over a range of issues -- from the war in Iraq, torture, the economy, and the environment, among others -- may be a motivating factor for the Democratic party faithful, it may not be enough to deliver a significant increase in turnout on January 3rd.

Interviews with Democratic campaign staff, Democratic county party chairs, and several veteran political observers further suggest that, as in previous years, the actual turnout on caucus night will depend much more on the efficiency of respective campaign field operations and on serendipity rather than on a collective reaction to the incumbent administration.

Even those who predict higher voter turnout acknowledge that factors such as the proximity of the caucus date to the holiday season, the college football championships taking place the same night, a displaced student population, and the inherently inconvenient and potentially intimidating nature of caucusing -- as opposed to balloting -- could easily suppress turnout among an otherwise motivated electorate. While Bush fatigue may drive turnout, it will not be by much.

While some 125,000 Democrats braved the cold Iowa weather to caucus in 2004 (a sharp increase from the 2000 Democratic caucuses), David Redlawsk, University of Iowa Political Science professor and the Acting Johnson County Democratic Chairman in 2004, says he does not expect that number to increase this year and believes that Iowa may have already reached its turnout peak. "I don't know if we will have more people (in the Johnson County Democratic Caucus). In Johnson, we tripled our turnout from 2000. In 2004, we had 11,000 people. There are practical limits. We can't sign all the people in; there's no place to put them. 2004 for Democrats here was a pretty intense time. And there was already a substantial student caucus in 2004," states Redlawsk.

Click here to keep reading.

Comments

[cblcar]

I can't understand why every single person isn't motivated and on fire this election season. This may be the most important election of our lifetime, and my lifetime spans many elections. It's said we get the leaders we deserve. God help us.

[leatherneck]

I just watched the Mitt Romney speech, it was truly the greatest hypocritical speech I have ever heard, there is a god in heaven, since if this man wins the republican nomination, and as a democrat I pray he does, since he is totally unelectable nationally, if it was not just for his cult religion [mormonism] which one will hear much on as time goes by such as their mythical golden tablets found in the USA in 1800's, that just as mythically disappeared, their denying blacks access till just recently, and their present day denial of anyone not a member too enter their churches, which is totally opposite anything Jesus taught, Jesus never held a membership test too hear him, then ad too that the polygamy which is not a great issue too many but will be harped on with his many church members who practice this habit in secrecy. But the real catch was him trying too link himself too war heros like John Kennedy, George Bush Sr, of world war II, and trying too link this generation of terriorism too his generation and him standing up now, when his generation was mine, the vietnam era generation, which he dodged vietnam duty with a mormon church connection deferrment, has five sons of age in this "generation" who do not serve, but have fun driving RV's on campaign tours, and compare that too duty in Iraq..as their civic patriotism..., yes like sons like dad, dodge the bullet, claim patriotism sounds like chicken hawks too me..., as a ex-marine vietnam era, it always amazes me these most ardent warmongers dodge fighting, hide behind the real warriors and try too claim their bravery as their own....

[Counterglow]

So "Bush Fatigue" is when you just lie there limp and useless, instead of standing up proud and strong and doing your duty.

And all this time, I thought it was something that happened during the latter stages of your wedding night.

Sounds like there might be a joke in there somewhere.

[springsm]

These people will vote for their beloved republican bible thumping candidates no matter who it is or how they lead. It galls me that Iowa is considered 'the leading authority' on who is best suited to be in the White House. It is also equally as disturbing to think that they represent those who are creative thinkers. In fact it is downright scary to keep giving this state so much 'umph' in these matters. I am incensed but also embarrassed.

[Witchitalineman]

I am so against these caucuses. Iowa is not a typical sampling of the population but the psyche that is placed in the mind of the voters is real.