Younger Than Barbie, Older Than Barack

For some reason, the fact that Barbie turned 50 this past week freaked me out. As a guy who's on the precipice of 48 and a half, I was already struggling with the reality that our President is younger than me. But, now I know that Barbie and I will hit the big Five-O within a couple of years of each other, yet my movable body parts live by the laws of gravity and hers don't. Damn that Barbie.

Our economy has movable parts, too, and a whole lot of gravity. In fact, there's so much gravity that savvy observers are starting to worry that my little cusp of a generation (what some have called Generation Jones, those late boomers or early-Xers born in 1954-1965), who've seen their retirement piggybacks lose more than half their value, "bail out of stocks for good. Some analysts say stocks, which posted zero gains for the ten-year period ending in October, are setting up for a second 'lost decade.'" (USA Today) Does that make mine the "lost generation" since we may lead the way to a generational divesture out of the stock market?

Frankly, my generation has been lucky as we've experienced the "Great Expansion" from the time we graduated from college. Starting in late 1982 and continuing for 25 years through December 2007, this adult half of my life has been one long economic orgy (with two strictly-defined little recessions: nine months in 1990-91 and eight months in 2001). My generational cohorts have gotten used to the good times. But, what if that's been a momentary quarter-century illusion and the U.S. may resemble an economy like the rollercoaster Argentina in the next couple of decades? Don't cry for me, Barbie and Barack!

Our growing national debt, the painful process of de-levering American households and corporations, and foreign competition that at times makes the U.S. feel like Little Leaguers promise a bootstrap era like our grandparents experienced in the 30's. Hell, amidst all this doom and gloom, our savings rate as a country skyrocketing to 5% last month after years of hovering around zero as we were scared as the dickens to spend a dime. But, like my Nonnie and Potka (yes, that's what I called my dad's parents), we're saving under our mattress instead of in those bankrupt banks (the 17th of which was taken over by the government this year on another failing Friday). Listen, the federal regulators are taking the America's top 20 banks through a "stress test" to see if these financial giants can make it under a variety of future economic scenarios, but I think that expression is more apt for what we're all living through at the moment.

Debt financed a national lifestyle of consumption. Ouch, it's hard to even write that sentence as it makes me feel like a fire and brimstone preacher shouting out of a flatbed truck. But, maybe it's time to learn a few things from that Great Generation that survived the 30's, learned to fight in the 40's, and made babies in the 50's. Barack's Inaugural address basically told us it's time to grow up. I guess he was speaking to me and my classmates who've been "kids in the candy store" for most of our adult life. Some of my friends are hoping this is just a "lost weekend" (on a really rainy weekend, watch that classic alcoholic film with Ray Milland -- it'll pick your spirits up or maybe drive you to some spirits), not a "lost generation" or "lost decade."

But, let me end on a positive note. When I was at the TED conference a month ago, an economist revealed a fascinating graph that showed that if prognosticators in 1930 had predicted American economic growth for the balance of the century based upon either the pace of growth during the roaring 20's or the growth during the first three decades of the 1900's, they would have dramatically underestimated the actual growth we experienced by almost half. So, one of the key lessons about life is that we humans tend to imagine when we're in bad times that they'll never end and we tend to do the same during good times. Yet, this graph reminded me that there's some givens in life beyond the fact that Barbie's skin is still taut and smooth and Joan Rivers' shouldn't be. One key given over the past few centuries is that over the course of a lifetime, things do tend to get better economically, at least in a macroeconomic way. That's an important reminder to those of us who may be approaching 50 and imagining that modern medicine suggests we may have just hit midlife. Now, if modern medicine could only perfect its cure to gravity.

Chip Conley is the Founder and CEO of Joie de Vivre Hospitality and the author of PEAK: How Great Companies Get Their Mojo From Maslow.

Comments

[wenton]

Well-written article. I'm also part of Generation Jones, and relate to much of what you wrote. Although we aren't actually a "little cusp of a generation", but instead are huge...I think I read somewhere that Jonesers are 26% of all U.S. adults. Hopefully, that may help us get our interests met a bit better, since our collective generational interests have long been largely ignored. I've been quite happy to see Generation Jones getting so much attention in the media in recent months partly for this reason...w­ith this collective consciousness building among Jonesers, we are likelier to be able to help ourselves, and our country.

If you didn't catch this op-ed in USA TODAY last month, It's well worth a read (it's written by the guy who coined the term "Generation Jones": http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20090127/column27_st.art.htm

Also, for those who haven't been following the GenJones movement in recent months, this page is a good summary: http://generationjones.com/2009latest.html

Lastly, I've stayed at several Joie de Vivre hotels along the way; kudos to you for a great vibe at your properties­...