Remember Yugoslavia

Two thoughts on Iraq:

1. Vietnam is an appropriate analogue to Iraq only insofar as it represents a failure of American foreign policy. From an Iraqi perspective, the more appropriate analogue is instead post-communist Yugoslavia.

If you fail to see the connection, consider the following:

* like Yugoslavia, Iraq's previous government abruptly dissolved
* like Yugoslavia, the dissolution of a centralized national government exposed ethnic fault lines
* like Yugoslavia, Iraq's fault lines only roughly correspond to geographic locality
* like Yugoslavia, Iraq's ethnic rivalries have become increasingly militarized

Because of these similarities, if America applies to Iraq the lesson it learned in Vietnam (ie, "the earlier you withdraw, the better"), we need only refer to Yugoslavia to see what would happen: armed ethnic groups would quickly seek to establish regional autonomy. Thus the Kurds in Iraq would move to secure the north, the Sunnis the west, and the Shi'ites the south.

The problem with regional autonomy lies in the third point above. While there are pockets of ethnic homogeneity in Iraq, none of its three largest regions are homogeneous overall. As a result you would see massive internal migrations, and therein the real horror lies: one need only mention Srebrenica to demonstrate that history has not proven kind to ethnic migrants in the midst of armed conflict.

2. If we assume that a premature withdrawal dramatically increases the chances of a civilian massacre, the question for the American left becomes this: can we decry non-intervention in Bosnia, Rwanda and Darfur on the one hand, and also advocate for early withdrawal on the other?

The fact that the left opposed the Iraqi war is immaterial here. It happened. The violent chaos we predicted has come to pass, and what began as a war of choice is now -- if only from a humanitarian perspective -- a war of necessity.

That reality is, to be sure, a bitter pill to swallow. Do American liberals -- who were so quick to say "Never Again" in the past -- now have sufficient courage to stomach it?

Note: I altered this post's lede after reading Lynn's comment below. As I explain in a later comment, the original lede was misguided, and for that I apologize.