For all its seeming complexities, sometimes politics can be painstakingly simple.
Take central Asia. For at least a year now, it's been clear that the Bush administration has two priorities in the region.
The first is to contain Iran and curtail its nuclear program. The second is to contain Russia and curtail its expansionism.
Regrettably, Georgia's President didn't get the memo. The violence currently tearing Mickail Saakashvili's country apart owes entirely to his confusion of those priorities.
In short, Saakashvili thought that the moment the first Russian shell exploded in Georgia, the West would have no choice but to rush to his defense. Georgia had made itself into the poster-child of democratic reform, he thought, so surely the West wouldn't risk letting it once again fall under Russia's orbit.
If this were still 2005, the year of President Bush's visit to Georgia, Saakashvili's may have been right.
But a lot has happened since. In particular, the violence in Iraq that same year, together with the fighting in southern Lebanon in 2006, showed the world what Iran could accomplish if it wanted to flex its newfound muscle. And thereafter a panic set in -- both in Washington and Jerusalem -- about what Iran might do if it had a nuclear weapon to protect itself. Almost overnight, the most pressing concern in central Asia shifted from containing Russia to containing Iran.
What the violence in Georgia has revealed is just how extensively Washington has realigned its interests in central Asia. The Bush administration has no desire to let Georgia burn, yet that's exactly what it's doing.
And the reason is that Bush has no choice. There are only two ways to contain the Iranian threat: one is to use Israel as a military proxy -- in essence, to green-light Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear installations. If need be the Bush administration will prove willing to do this, but they'd prefer not to; there would be immediate military fall-out in Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel, not to mention another surge in the energy market.
The only other option is diplomacy. And here Russia comes back into play: since Russian banks and technology are currently keeping Iran afloat, it's the only country with sufficient leverage to force Iran to stop its nuclear program. Without Russian approval, the threat of added sanctions is all but meaningless.
That is why Bush is letting Russia have its way with Georgia. To be sure, ultimately Bush will step in -- in fact, Russia, wary of another Chechnya, seems to be banking on that happening. But full American intercession won't come until Russia feels confident that it has degraded Georgia's military to the point where it neither will nor can risk invading Abkhazia or South Ossetia any time soon.
What remains to be seen in all this is whether Putin will return the favor. At present, the Bush administration thinks it's trading violence in Georgia for potential violence in Iraq and Lebanon.
Hopefully they're right. Otherwise, we're headed toward violence in both.
http://www.jcpa.org/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=2402&TTL=The_Russian-Georgian_War:_Implications_for_the_Middle_East
It is NATO that is expanding relentlessly eastward. The US is using NATO offensively, though they claim defensively, and are purposely ring-fencing Russia with anti-missle systems. The US has expanded into Easter Eurpoe, Iraq and Afghanistan. The US andf Israel have expanded into the Caucuses (Georgia) and have supplied them with weapons and training. Georgia attacked Russia at the behest of the US to make Russia a bogeyman and to expand NATO further with the inclusion of Georgia.
English Report: http://irannegah.com/Video.aspx?id=808
Bush will do NOTHING, now or during the remainder of his term.
Russia and China, from this point forward, will do pretty much as they please. US efforts to stand in their way will only result in international humiliation, and potentially another war we cannot possibly win.
Perhaps that's a bad thing, and god knows that most American Hawks are either cluelessly pontificating or sh*tting their pants, depending on how in touch they are with the new reality.
But perhaps it's not such a bad thing. Maybe it's high time we got over ourselves and start building a national mindset of working WITH other nations, rather than attempting to STRONG-ARM them into our way of thinking.
Many in this country still buy into the "greatest nation on earth" mantra, but when you look at it objectively, you'll see that such has pretty much been reduced to an American delusion.
Whether it's a good thing or bad thing will only depend on how the United States chooses to respond to its lowered staus.
When Bush preemptively invaded Iraq, he took away any moral high ground the US might have had from which to exert pressure on Russia.
And with our military overextended and bogged down in an occupation in that war of choice, we have no credible military option.
We are not making choices about the middle east in the Georgia debacle; we are living with the consequences of a short sighted and myopic foreign policy. Specifically, we have no choices and no options, thanks to the decider and his gang of neocons.
China and Russia must have choked on their glee when Bush moved to enact Cheney’s secret energy plan to divest Iraq’s oil assets via hostile takeover. Cheney saw the Black Sea oil going the way of pipeline to Turkey or perhaps Iraq and adding Iraq’s oil assets as a “stash” for U.S. oil dependence, never mind the blowback profits the takeover would supply to all the attendant military contractors. Blinded by his own bloated hubris Cheney drove Bush to enact a takeover with no reorganization plan, no infrastructure or apparatus to capitalize on the assets., and the rest as they say will be our history.
***THIS IS NOT GOING TO END WITH GEORGIA!***
Russia and China have already conducted joint military exercises supposing a “country torn by civil war and sectarian violence” John McCain allegedly has a Georgian lobbyist (foreign agent?) on his payroll. Russia in concert with China is moving to choke off the Black Sea oil pipeline, control the price of oil and the destiny of the American economy. There will gains and false cease fires that will time out in conjunction with the withdrawal dates being for U.S. troops being floated by Maliki. At which time the Maliki government will request the intervention of the Chinese and the Russians, and the ascendance of the U.S. will have ended with a whimper.
This makes me ponder, why all the U.S. tizzy over North Korea and it's nuclear program? North Korea lies squarely in China's backyard, and if China wants its backyard littered with nuclear weapons at the ready, then who is the U.S./E.U./U.N. to complain? We should all respect private property! Same goes for Iran and its nuclear ambitions.
Respecting everyone's backyard should be our next prez' foreign policy goal. A new age of World Peace is upon us. Let's celebrate!
How coud anyone expect any difference from another Republican administration. Of course, Bush (and his administration) has created this trap himself
A more peaceful world is now upon us! Celebration is in order!
1. There is no Iranian nuclear weapon program. Period. Even the CIA agrees.
2. The Warsaw Pact was DISBANDED years ago. Since then NATO has EXPANDED considerably. Whose expansionism are you talking about?
"The only other option is diplomacy. And here Russia comes back into play: since Russian banks and technology are currently keeping Iran afloat, it's the only country with sufficient leverage to force Iran to stop its nuclear program. Without Russian approval, the threat of added sanctions is all but meaningless."
ApolloSpeaks
You're dreaming, friend. Iran's nuclear arms program is nonnegotiable and unstoppable save for the destruction of the mullah regime. Khomeine made the decision long ago that no power east or west will have the power of life and death over the revolution's policies and goals.
I believe the term you're looking for is NON-EXISTENT...