299 Superdelegates On The Wall...

299 superdelegates on the wall,
299 superdelegates.
If one of those superdelegates should happen to fall,
298 superdelegates on the wall.

My apologies. Whoever created the song "99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall" shares some of the blame (along with John Yoo) for redefining the word "torture" for the American public. [I should note that some sing a different third line in this charming ditty -- Take one down and pass it around -- but I felt that was a wee bit inappropriate when talking about Democratic superdelegates. Ahem. And it would be even more accurate to change it to "on the fence" rather than "on the wall," now that I think about it. But I digress....]

Anyone who has ever been on a school field trip bus, or even the backseat of the family car on a vacation road trip knows exactly what I mean about this song. The cyclic (and seemingly endless) drip-drip-drip of counting down from ninety-nine to zero is enough to drive anybody crazy. And that's starting from less than 100.

But the subject at hand is not beer bottles, it is Democratic superdelegates. And while the mainstream media is (as usual) missing the point, these superdelegates are where the nomination race is going to end. Anyone with half a brain could see this was going to happen six weeks before Pennsylvania voted, but then we are talking about the mainstream media here.

There are approximately 300 superdelegates left (out of a total of around 800) who have not yet decided which candidate to back. And it's all about these 300 right now. Sooner or later (later is my guess) the media is going to notice this fact.

Sure, it's more fun for them to bloviate endlessly about the next upcoming "do or die" primary, but the fact of the matter is that none of the remaining primaries (absent a total meltdown by Hillary or Barack) is going to decide much of anything -- which everyone in the media is fully aware of. They know nothing's going to be decided by the remaining races, but much like an addict struggling to put down the crack pipe, they keep going back for one more refreshing hit. Look at how much mileage they got out of the non-story: "Pennsylvania votes exactly as everyone expected them to," for instance.

Don't believe me? Go over to CNN's "delegate math" game and play around with the numbers for a while. If you honestly estimate what the outcome of the remaining races is likely to be (Hillary wins some states, Obama wins some states) for each of the primaries (without touching the slide bar for superdelegates), you will see that when all the voting is done, Obama is going to need fewer superdelegates than Hillary to cross the finish line. Numbers differ slightly, but it looks to me like he's only going to need about 100 out of those remaining 300 undecided superdelegates to reach the magic winning number of 2,024.

Those are pretty good odds for Obama. What's more, the wind is at his back when it comes to picking up superdelegates. Since Super Tuesday, he has cut Hillary Clinton's lead in superdelegates from around 100 down to (as of this writing) 22. And that number has been steadily shrinking. Hillary has picked up some superdelegates since then, but every time she picks up one, Obama picks up three (he's added 103, she's added 32). If this continues, Barack is going to pass her very soon, and gain the lead in superdelegates. This is the point where I have predicted the news media will wake up and discover that Obama has "closed the deal."

But no matter whether the media talks about it or not, Obama still only needs one-third of the remaining superdelegates to win. Depending on the primary outcomes, and depending on how many of the 300 actually support Obama, this will likely mean that even if Michigan and Florida are seated, there is just no way Hillary Clinton is going to be able to win.

Now, superdelegates aren't some herd creature, although you wouldn't know that from the way some people talk about them. Although the Obama camp has leaked rumors (at least twice) that a huge number of superdelegates are going to "break" his way imminently, what has instead happened is a steady drip-drip-drip of lone superdelegates announcing their endorsement one way or the other. This is likely to continue.

Until, one of these days, the media's going to notice that for the past two months, Barack Obama has been winning handily in the only remaining contest that matters. Because these 300 people are going to decide who the Democratic nominee for president is going to be. And if the trend continues, it's going to be Barack Obama. No matter who wins Indiana.

297 superdelegates on the wall...

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

Comments

[usabroad]

When I think of the superdelegates now I keep hearing Patrick Henry's words (burned into my memory from repeated trips to visit my grandmother in Williamsburg VA): "Are we so meek and pusillanimous...?" While one could well argue that the politically savvy are wise to wait it out to assure their own survival or elevation, I would argue that craven political instincts are harmful to all. Are there really so many undecideds? It is now clear who and what these candidates are. Are the concerns about how strong the winds are from Bill or Jeremiah eg that are keeping them from pulling up their sails? Come on, look at the two candidates and decide! Be bold! Know your own position and wear it well. If you believe in either candidate, show up.

[AC500]

I hope the Super Delegates planning to vote for Hillary can explain to everyone how they've vetted Bill Clinton for an encore performance in the White House. I think everyone would be interested to know what he's been doing since he left the White House, what business ventures he's involved in, and who his associates are. Since Hillary has demonstrated that she is unable to manage her own campaign without Bill stepping in and taking it over to a large extent, we can only assume this pattern will continue with a Hillary Presidency. As this appears to have all the indications of a joint Presidency, although Hillary will no doubt argue otherwise, Bill needs to be vetted. The other problem with Bill returning to the White House is that he's proven to be a bit of a loose cannon on the campaign trail. What can we expect of him as ex-President and First Mate? I can conjure up all kinds of conflict of interest scenarios. I can imagine he could also prove to be an embarrassment or distraction to a President Hillary. Have the Super Delegates taken all of this into consideration? Have they thought of how an ex-President used to calling the shots returns to the White House ostensibly a doormat?

[louisev]

Excellent analysis. I really do wish the bloviating would come to an end and the MSM would start talking about the real math, and the only math that matters, and we can get on to the general election race. But just like in the song, I think those superdelegates are just going to come down off the fence one at a time.

[CitizenHuff]

There are cries that the Superdelegates vote for the candidate who has won the popular vote. I say, Absurd. There is no guarantee that the popular vote produces the best candidate for President, or President. George Bush won the Presidential popular vote in 2004. Gee, that didn't turn out so well. Superdelegates should vote for the candidate who can win. My personal opinion is that Senator Clinton has a better chance of winning the Presidency.
Senator Obama needs more time in the Senate. And America needs more time to mature to the theme of a Black President. I do not at this time believe middle America is ready to dismiss vitriolic Republican supporters ads, like "He got 92% of the Black vote in Pennsylvania; 85% of the black vote in ...etc. etc. John McCain supports your values. Do you think he does?",, or ads to that effect. If Senator Obama thinks they won't come, that is a naivety the Democrats cannot afford.

[BitJam]

There will be nasty attacks from the right no matter who the Democratic nominee is. If you think they won't come regardless of who gets the nod then you have a naivety the Democratic party cannot afford.

An army marches on its stomach. A campaign marches on its monetary donations. Obama is the only major candidate left in the race who hasn't been forced to get a multimillion dollar loan in order to stay in the game. He orchestrated a brilliant campaign and came out of nowhere to seize a lead in: money raised; states won; pledged delegates; overall delegates; and national popularity.

Take a look at this graph of the average of the national polls:
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

In late 2007, Clinton had a 20 point lead that evaporated when the primaries started and now Obama is up by 9 points (as of 4/25/08).

One of the main justifications for the three ring circus we call the nomination process is that it allows us to judge how candidates will preside based on how they campaigned. If we are to judge the candidates by their campaigns then clearly Clinton is the one who is not yet ready while Obama is raring to go.

[timm0]

HuffPost's Pick

This "who will win" is the fool's logic that I fear is infecting more super delegates than anyone wants to consider. The vote won't be based on policy, infrastructure, vision, and governance potential - it'll be based on the logical equivalent of tarot card and palm readings. Ignore the resonance of message, ignore the fact that one candidate is credible at potentially bringing change while the other has made over $100 million on the status quo, ignore the financiers for hillary who will be hurt by change, ignore the fact that the clintons are proven liars, ignore the sideshow circus that has been the clintons for a long time.

Instead of using some assessments about the appropriateness of a candidate's platform, make a prediction! Better yet, make it based on "electability," because it's certainly rational to think that between two people who have each received millions of votes throughout the country only one can be "electable" while the other is a veritable leper. Yeah, that's the ticket!

Worse, let's think that one will be more beaten on by the repug machine... let's believe that there's going to be a federal election where the pigs don't lie, slander, and pull illegal stunts for one Dem - but ravage the other... This is a very reasonable basis for a decision, isn't it!?

Well, while you're at it, give us some good lottery numbers and the winner of the 3rd race in Dover, ok?

[grendl]

There's another super scenario you didn't mention.

Superman could circles the globe thousands of times, and reverse the world's rotation, turning time back so that Hillary and Bill could set Chelsea up on more dates with superdelegates.

Or she could go back even farther and change her vote for the war in Iraq.

Or even farther than that so she could switch the poem in that 8 year old Bosnian girls hand with a sniper rifle, and have ILM change morning to night, with laser beams...and the sniping...hey lady...

Or even farther than that, when she still had a conscience and soul, and didn't believe she was the only one who could save this country, and reviled the kind of fear mongering, racie baiting Rovian tactics she now employs with the glee of Cruella DeVille. If such a time ever existed.

Then again why not have a " Deal or No Deal" runoff between her and Barack, where they pick a box with a numerical number of supers hidden inside, and supermodels hold the rest. The ratings would be fantastic.

And I'll save the easily angered the trouble, I know how stupid it sounds. Free country though.

[apoyo]

Reversal of time = Reversal of fortune.