Electoral Math -- Obama Holds His Lead

It's quiet out there... too quiet.

Well, not really, but I always wanted to start a column with that line. The news this week is that there's not much news. The state-by-state polls have been remarkably stable for how close we are to Election Day. Some fringe states have shifted slightly for both candidates, but most states appear to be more and more "locked in" at this point.

Which reminds me, what the heck is John McCain doing in Pennsylvania? He must be counting on one whopping big Bradley Effect there, because almost every poll I've seen says he doesn't stand a chance in the Keystone State.

What it may be is that McCain could be pinning his hopes for the entire race on Pennsylvania. It has an impressive 21 electoral votes, and it is looking more and more unlikely that McCain has any way of putting together a 270-vote win. So maybe their electoral math has come down to: if we lose Pennsylvania, we lose the race.

That would be great news for Obama, if it were true. The list of states McCain is rumored to be pulling out of continues to grow (Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado), meaning McCain's got fewer and fewer chances remaining, and possibly no chance at all without Pennsylvania.

More and more, it is looking like Virginia will be the state that decides Election Night in Obama's favor, and (hopefully) very early in the evening. Sure, it could be Florida or Ohio, but my guess is that the vote-counting is going to take a while in both of them, while Virginia will be a big enough Obama victory that the networks will call it early, just from exit polling.

I could be wrong, but that's my educated guess at this point.

But enough rampant speculation, let's get on to the charts and numbers and stuff. First up, the Electoral College totals. [Click on any of these charts to see a larger image. Compare with last week's column to see the graphs' movement in the past week.]

[Obama's percentage starts from the bottom (blue) and McCain's starts from the top (red), and winning means getting your line over (or under, for McCain) the 50% mark. Tied states are in white.]

As I said, remarkably stable. Obama lost a little bit, then gained it back. McCain lost a little bit, and didn't gain it back.

The week started with West Virginia flipping to McCain (and then, just today, firming up for him significantly). But at the same time, North Carolina flipped from McCain to being tied. Three days later, it flipped over to Obama's column. But it truly could go either way, so while it's in Obama's column this week it could just as easily go back.

Case in point: North Dakota. After just five days in Obama's column, it flipped back to being tied this week. And still could go either way.

John McCain is now at the lowest point he's hit during the entire campaign. And Obama has set a new record high. McCain has just 171 electoral votes (EV), or 31.8%. Obama, meanwhile, has an astonishing 364 EV, for a total of 67.7%. In other words, Obama is now doing better than two-thirds, and McCain has slipped below one-third of the total votes.

This is a very nice place for Obama to be, with less than two weeks to go.

Let's look at each candidate's relative support within their numbers, starting as always with John McCain.

[Definition of terms: Strong means 10% or better in the polls, Weak means 5% or better, and Barely is under five percent.]

Starting with McCain's Strong numbers, he gained one state early in the week (Mississippi) but then lost one later on (South Dakota). This leaves him with a modest gain of three electoral votes here, up to a total of 134 EV.

McCain's Weak numbers also moved a bit, but not by much. He lost Mississippi upwards to Safe, and then he lost Montana downwards to Barely. Just today, he made some ground back here by moving West Virginia up from Barely, leaving him with a net loss of only one electoral vote this week, down to 23 EV total.

McCain's Barely numbers also quivered a bit this week. He started the week off by grabbing West Virginia from Obama's column, but unfortunately on the same day North Carolina moved to being tied (and later moved into Obama's column). And West Virginia later moved up to Weak for McCain, which was good news for him but reduced his numbers here. Conversely, his Barely number bumped up with the addition of Montana, but this isn't good news at all since it is moving downwards from Weak McCain. Overall, McCain suffered a net loss of 12 EV in the Barely column this week, finishing up with a total of 14 EV.

The metric I trust more than any other to show true support is Strong plus Weak. Adding these together didn't show much movement at all this week for McCain. The line went down a bit, then recovered a bit. McCain ends up the week with a net gain of only two electoral votes, for a total of 157 EV. While the line is moving upwards, it is just not moving upwards fast enough to give even the staunchest McCain supporter much hope.

Speaking of hope, let's turn to Obama's numbers.

Obama gained three states in his Strong category, and then lost one at the very end. He started the week off by firming up New Mexico, followed by firming up Maine and Minnesota, and then right at the end fell back a bit by losing New Hampshire down to Weak.

At his peak, he hit the highest number he has ever hit in this category -- 264 EV. Since New Hampshire slid back, he's still at a comfortable 260 EV, up 15 EV from last week. Will 264 EV wind up being the best he does in this category? I wonder, but I'm still holding out hope for New Hampshire to come back, and there is a very real possibility of adding either Colorado or Virginia (or both!) as well, which means Obama could still reach a number in his Strong category alone which would be enough to win the entire race -- a stunning accomplishment.

Obama lost ground in Weak this week, most of it (thankfully) upwards to his Strong category. He started the week off losing New Mexico up to Strong, but at the same time also losing Missouri down to Barely and West Virginia to McCain entirely. The best news was on the same day, when Obama moved Virginia back to Weak from Barely. Later in the week, Maine and Minnesota moved up to Strong, and then at the end of the week New Hampshire fell back to Weak from Strong. That's a lot of movement, which resulted in a net loss for Obama here of 18 EV, down to a total of 26 EV.

At the same time, though, Obama gained some ground in Barely. He lost North Dakota down to a tie, but picked up North Carolina from a tie at almost the same time. He also gained Missouri, down from Weak. Overall, his Barely numbers improved by 10 EV to a total of 78 EV.

Looking at Strong plus Weak for Obama reveals that he is steadily holding his ground. While he had a small peak last Wednesday up to 289 EV, this dropped three but then stayed exactly the same throughout all the movement elsewhere for the entire week. Now, it would certainly be nice to see this number get a bit higher by moving some of the Barely states into at least Weak (NV, MO, OH, NC, or FL) to provide Obama a bigger cushion for error on Election Day. But for Strong plus Weak to be as high as 286 EV means Obama doesn't need a single battleground state at this point to win outright, he just needs to hold the states he's got. Which he did admirably well this week.

 

Sam's Picks

We turn once again to the analysis from Sam Minter and his website abulsme.com. His chart averages the last five state polls, while I just take the most recent data from electoral-vote.com, so his data is more stable than mine.

His chart combines my three charts above into one. Obama starts from the top, McCain starts from the bottom, and wherever the double baby-blue/pink line currently is determines who is ahead, measured from the centerline.

Minter's most recent comments sum up his view of the race:

New Summary:

McCain Best Case -- Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case -- Obama 383, McCain 155
If everybody gets their leans -- 364 Obama, 174 McCain

So where does that put us?

Well, McCain's best case if he wins every single swing state is still to lose.

Over the last week or so, McCain has been able to move a couple of states (Florida and Colorado) from being blue states back to being swing states. The lead hasn't flipped toward McCain in any of the swing states, but he has made them close again, which is of course the needed first step. He still however needs to pull at least 9 more electoral votes from "Weak Obama" to "Lean Obama" in order to have a possible path to victory.

Meanwhile, there is another line I hadn't paid much attention to lately. That is the "Strong Obama" line. That is, the number of electoral votes Obama has including ONLY the states where his lead is over 10%. Obama does not seem to have peaked yet on this metric. Obama now has 245 electoral votes with just these states. That means he only needs 25 electoral votes from his Weak or Lean states in order to win. There are 119 electoral votes in those categories at the moment that he can pick from to try to get those 25.

The question here is not if McCain can win. The question is if he can even pull enough states back out of Obama's world to even have an imaginable way to win.

Not a good week for McCain fans, I guess.

 

My Picks

As we've had a relatively stable week, my picks haven't moved a whole lot either. There have been some changes at the margins, but mostly among states with less than 10 electoral votes, meaning that while a few states moved around, the totals really haven't much. Obama's skyrocketing gains appear to have slowed, McCain seems to have largely staunched the bleeding, but there are no signs of any sort of turnaround for him yet at the state-by-state level.

If this keeps up for another week, one wouldn't be surprised to hear that Malia and Sasha Obama have started measuring Amy Carter's treehouse for drapes.

So to speak.

Anyway, here are my personal picks for the week. As always, the categories used are: Likely Obama (broken down to Safe Obama and Probable Obama); Likely McCain (Safe/Probable); and Tossup (broken down to Lean Obama, Lean McCain, and Too Close To Call). And at the very end is a section with all the full data for those who just can't get enough of this stuff.

 

Likely States -- Obama

Safe Obama (21 states, 260 EV) -- CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI.

Very little movement here. Maine moves up from Probable, New Hampshire moves down to Probable. Because they both have four electoral votes, the numbers don't move at all. Just counting Safe Obama gives 260 EV, or only ten away from victory in this category alone.

Probable Obama (3 states, 26 EV) -- CO, NH, VA.

Maine moves up to Safe, New Hampshire moves down. But the good news here is that Colorado is looking firmer and firmer for Obama. Because of this stability, Colorado can now be considered a Probable state for Obama.

This improves Obama's overall Likely numbers to 24 states and a whopping 286 EV. Meaning that if Obama only wins these states, and none of the tossups, he will still have 16 electoral votes more than he needs to win the race.

 

Likely States -- McCain

Safe McCain (16 states, 134 EV) -- AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY.

McCain also picks up one and loses one in his Safe category this week. South Dakota softened up, and moves down to Probable. But Mississippi firmed up for McCain, meaning he has a very small net gain this week of three electoral votes.

Probable McCain (2 states, 18 EV) -- GA, SD.

South Dakota moves down from Safe, Mississippi moves up to Safe, but the real bad news for McCain is he's seemingly got a new (red) battleground state to play defense in, since Montana moves down to Lean McCain (and could even move further, this is a continuing trend for Montana).

Overall, McCain loses one state and three electoral votes from his Likely states, for a total of 18 states and an anemic 152 EV.

 

Tossup States

Lean Obama (2 states, 47 EV) -- FL, OH.

The good news here for Obama is that Colorado moved up from Lean Obama to Probable Obama this week. The bad news is that his numbers in both Florida and Ohio have flattened out and may even have dipped. If either state gets any closer, it will move down to Too Close To Call next week. But the really good news is it is looking more and more like Obama is not going to need either of them to win the race. These two states may mean the difference between "comfortable win" and "landslide" for Obama, but they likely won't mean "President McCain" even if Obama loses them both.

Lean McCain (3 states, 19 EV) -- IN, MT, WV.

Some mixed news here for McCain as well. The good news for McCain is that West Virginia seems to be moving away from its brief flirtation with Obama. McCain's numbers here have continued to improve, meaning the state moves up from Too Close To Call this week. But the bad news for McCain is that Indiana still hasn't shown strong enough support to move up to Probable McCain, and the really bad news is that Montana has moved down from a Likely state to merely a Lean McCain state.

Too Close To Call (4 states, 34 EV) -- MO, NC, ND, NV.

Surprisingly little movement here, for being so close to the finish line. Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina are showing a very slight lead to Obama, but not enough to move them into any of his categories. And North Dakota is a complete tossup at this point. West Virginia moved out of this column up to Lean McCain, but otherwise this is the same list as last week.

 

[Program Note: Only two more of these columns to go! Next Wednesday as usual, and then a special "My Election Picks" column, which will appear on Election Day before the polls close.]

 

[Electoral Vote Data:]

Previous electoral math columns:

[6/30/08], [7/21/08], [8/6/08], [8/20/08], [9/17/08], [9/24/08], [10/1/08], [10/8/08], and [10/15/08].

 

Barack Obama Likely Easy Wins -- 24 States -- 286 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 21 States -- 260 Electoral Votes
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington, D.C. (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

Probable States -- 3 States -- 26 Electoral Votes
Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13)

 

John McCain Likely Easy Wins -- 18 States -- 152 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 16 States -- 134 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 18 Electoral Votes
Georgia (15), South Dakota (3)

 

Tossup States -- 9 States -- 100 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Obama -- 2 States -- 47 Electoral Votes
Florida (27), Ohio (20)

Tossup States Leaning McCain -- 3 States -- 19 Electoral Votes
Indiana (11), Montana (3), West Virginia (5)

Too Close To Call -- 4 States -- 34 Electoral Votes
Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3)

 

Oldest data -- no polls in October yet:

9/18: Utah, Washington, D.C.
9/20: Idaho
9/25: Hawaii, Maryland
9/26: Arkansas
9/28: Louisiana

 

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

 

Comments

[Thefamilyvan]

Obama must contest all 50 states because 1. He is a newcomer to the political scene and 2. He is african American and 3. He is a Democrat. The only way to change the past political victories of the Republicans is to be a "game-changer". Obama is a game-changer for all of the 3 reasons above and has defied all of the rules beautifully and created some new ones of his own, stemming from his roots in Chicago politics (door to door, neighborhood to neighborhood politics). So, this is not surprising that he would play every state to win. Howard Dean may have also suggested the "50 state" strategy, but it took the understanding of an Obama to carry it through and win with it.

[SOLERSO68]

How bout that Howard Dean "50 state strategy" huh?!" lets give it for the architect people.

[Mildmannered]

McCain can win FL, OH and PA, but if he loses NV, CO and VA he loses. Right? Obama's strategy, money, and ground game have been fantastic.

[Jimminynix]

McCain will steal the election - then succumb to illness and Palin wil be our next president - so get the vote out all day and all nite

[Mildmannered]

Here is an interesting article. http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/23/campaign_myths/

I also believed in Myth #5 "Obama Was Guilty of Hubris in Trying to Expand the Ma" and boy was I wrong, especially with regard to Virginia.

[SOLERSO68]

Howard Dean developed this strategy in the 2004 election. he was called nuts. 2 years later, when he was DNC chairman contesting congressional races nation wide, the clintons were trying to get him fired for it, calling him irresposible. we took back both houses of congress.now Obama is running a national election and we are considrering the heady possiblity of a LANDSLIDE! Im glad Obama Listened to DEAN and not the same old s**t!

[jusion]

Last night, I woke up in a sweat. I'd had a very bizarre dream . . .

NOVEMBER 5 -- There was Wilson over Hughes. And, of course, Truman over Dewey. But there's never been a surprise in presidential politics like the one that awaited Americans this morning, who woke up to discover that, somehow, John McCain had been elected president over Barack Obama.....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/long_national_nightmare.html

[MoeB]

Even IF they call the election early, people STILL need to GOTV. We cannot risk ANYTHING this election...lest we forget FL being called for Gore, then magically not.

[Mildmannered]

I agree, MoeB.

[toochie50]

Go to fivethirtyeight.com and read about WHY some of the polls that are only 1 point difference are not correct - they are based on a majority of EVANGELICAL's being polled - come on folks - he's gonna win.

[Wumpie]

Thanks! That helps. I bookmarked it!

[Wumpie]

Pollercoaster ride!
What's the deal with some polls coming out with Obama leading by 11 or 12 points and a recent AP poll (that, by the way was on the evening news on all the stations I watched last night) that had Obama ahead by 1 point? Why is there such variance?
Please someone write about this and explain what all these polls mean. Are they swaying their results? It's making me manic-depressive!

[Doofus]

Because 45% (!) of those polled by the AP were 'evangelicals or born-again Christians'.

Not anything close to an appropriate sample of the electorate.

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/new-flawed-ap-poll-claims-mccain-and.html

[BigMike75]

Take a deep breathe Wumpie, the AP poll is highly skewed and isn't scientific. Watch the Gallup daily tracking poll if you want daily polling, the Gallup still has Obama between 6-10 pts. Watch state polls that give you a better guage of the electoral map, which has Obama ahead by at least 100 electoral votes or more. Many of these polls are not definitive and accurate, always keep in mind that Obama has more money and a ground operation that makes McCain's look like a Mickey Mouse operation, no poll can measure that. But always check fivethirtyeight.com, the best polling and electoral map site on the net in my eyes...relax, we'll do this, we all just to have to do our part.

[Londonboy30]

Excellent analysis, Mr Weigant! Never fails to impress.

I can't wait for Nov 4th now... I'm so excited, I think I'mma gonna bust!

[Doofus]

Voting is one thing, 'voting irregularities' is another.

If the Demo vote preferences go as expected, then
the only thing left for the Repos is massive polling
interference of one kind or another.

This could be a very 'troublesome' election.

[Wilbur]

The LAST thing you want is for the prez race to be decided "early in the evening." If that happens, then many voters on the West Coast, Alaska and Hawaii may not go to vote for Obama, and that would have adverse impacts down the ticket, what with close U.S. Senate races in Oregon and Alaska needing all the Democratic votes they can get (not to mention several House races where the Dems have the potential to unseat incumbent GOP'ers and add to their majority).

PLEASE......think before you write!

Wilbur

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Wilbur -

While I hear what you're saying, what I wonder is -- if Obama clearly takes Virginia, Forida, or Ohio (in other words, the networks "call" the state for him), then what are the talking heads on teevee going to do? At that point, it will be obvious to anyone with a decent map that Obama is going to be over the 270 bar. Will they just deny this and try to make it seem closer than it is until the West Coast finishes voting? Or will they admit it? I honestly don't know which way they'll play it. Your thoughts?

-CW

[Wilbur]

I guess what I'm trying to convey is that I do not think it's a good thing for the Dems if the talking heads call the prez race over too soon. Actually, they might prefer to have things be - or appear to be - tight early on, as the talking heads seem to thrive on tension and uncertainty. But we need Dem voters in western states, particularly in California, Oregon, Nevada and Alaska, to do their voting. There are Senate pickup chances in Oregon and Alaska, and House pickup chances in the aforementioned states, plus Washington, Arizona, Wyoming and Colorado, and I want ALL Democrats to vote so that we can TROUNCE the GOP on election day!

Now on the other hand, an early "call" on the prez race might discourage GOP voters in Western states from going through the motions of voting, which wouldn't bother me one single bit. But I've seen way too much over the years not to know that GOP voters tend to be much more tenacious than their Democratic counterparts, so I don't want to assume that they would leave the voting lines in discouragement over an early "call" for Obama, IF the election goes that way. I'd rather that the talking heads "hold their fire" for as long as possible, particularly since it may help get the votes Mark Begich will need in Alaska to unseat Ted Stevens.

Let's just use Yogi Berra's old line: "It ain't over 'til it's over." Thank you.

[CanuckforObama]

Myself I am a little worried about the effect the Murtha comments might have in Pennsylvania in the coming days. If Penn somehow flips this would remove a lot of Obama's flexibility in terms of reaching 270. That is why McCain is spending so much time there.

[Nightbender]

I have been saying that this will be an Obama blowout ever since the Pa/lin pick. It was obvious to me that she was not seriously examined; but was tabbed on superficial grounds, her looks, a thin resume that is OK only on paper, and to stir up the base.
Now, I qualify that there are situations that could still shake this up, but the dynamic currently in place is a landslide of between 364-405 electoral votes for Obama.
Just look at the Big Ten / Quinnipiac poll that has EVERY big ten state ahead for Obama by at least ten points! This includes Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. One could interpret this as an anomaly, except that Obama is ahead in Illinois by 29%...no surprise in that it is his home state. It is a qualifier in that Obama won the 2004 Senate race by 43% ( ! ) 70% to 27% against Republican Alan Keyes.
Keyes is also African/American, so race should not have been a factor. What Keyes is...his prima facie philosophy can only be categorized as religious extremism. There is no evidence that would indicate any competence in governing, either.
John Mc/Cain selected as his vice president someone of a very similar nature, and people in these states will reject it just as they did in Illinois.
There will be so many surprises, and so many shellshocked Republicans out of a job after November 5.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Nightbender -

While you make interesting points, I have to caution against using Keyes as an example. Wasn't that the race with "7 of 9" (Jeri Ryan)'s ex-husband, who had to pull out because of embarrassing facts coming out in the divorce? I think Keyes jumped in the race at the last minute, so it's not really valid to compare it to other races. I could be wrong, though, and have mixed up which race was which.

-CW

[longislandlol]

Rendell has asked for 0ne more appearance by Barack---- has native son Joe made any inroads with PA voters?

[editorjuno]

When there's already a double-digit lead you really don't need much in the way of "inroads." The GOP ticket is wasting time in the solidly pro-choice Philly suburbs -- they really don't have a clue imo.