Friday Talking Points [25] -- Place Your Bets On The Democratic Race!

We haven't done a contest here in a while, so I'm going to open the betting window today on the outcome of the Democratic race. To play, just post a comment with the date and the outcome you predict will happen.

As an example, here is my entry: Hillary Clinton does great in Pennsylvania, but loses both North Carolina and Indiana, and drops out the next day.

A few rules: You can't just say "the convention," you have to pick a specific day during the convention. You have to say who wins the nomination, but you don't necessarily have to give details of how they manage to do so if you don't want to, that part is just for fun. All betting will be in quatloos, this column's favorite standard fictional currency. Ties will be broken by a battle to the death in the Triskelion arena... um... or maybe I'll just flip a coin.

Here are some key dates to remember (number of delegates in parentheses):

• April 22 -- Pennsylvania (188) votes


• May 3 -- Guam (9) votes


• May 6 -- North Carolina (134) and Indiana (84) vote


• May 13 -- West Virginia (39) votes


• May 20 -- Kentucky (60) and Oregon (65) vote


• June 1 -- Puerto Rico (63) votes


• June 3 -- Montana (24) and South Dakota (23) vote


• August 25, 26, 27, 28 -- Democratic National Convention in Denver

So, step right up and place your bets! I will open the bidding with 100 quatloos on "Barack wins it through default, when Hillary bows out on May 7."

I'll announce the winner after it happens (if nobody gets it dead-on, whoever's closest will win), right here in this column.

Step right up! Lay your money down!!

 

For her response to China's recent actions in Tibet, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi wins this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week award. China cracks down on Tibet, but George Bush doesn't want anything to spoil his fun at the Olympics? Pelsoi's answer was perfect -- fly over and make an appearance in support of the Dalai Lama. Remind everyone that China's going to put on a spectacle for the world this summer, but that there is a deeply dark side to the country as well. For her courage in doing so, she wins this week's MIDOTW.

Well done, Speaker Pelosi!

[Congratulate Nancy Pelosi on her Speaker of the House contact page to let her know you appreciate her efforts.]

 

This being election season, it was a tough choice this week. Sigh.

James Carville almost won, for escalating Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama to (literally) Biblical proportions. But Barack's supporter General McPeak went a little over the top this week, too, when he tried to paint Bill Clinton with the brush of Joe McCarthy. So those kind of cancelled each other out, sad to say.

But the big Democratic donors who sent Nancy Pelosi a letter all but threatening to stop donating to the House Democratic reelection committee if she didn't change her tune on how the superdelegates should vote earn this week's Most Disappointing Democrats Of The Week in a group award. Granted, it's their money, but the whole "If I don't get my way, I'm taking my bat and ball and going home" flavor to it left a bad taste in the mouth. After all, their point was that superdelegates (such as Pelosi) should be free to make up their own minds, which means they're allowed to say whatever they feel like about the race in an effort to influence other delegates. Which they're berating her for doing.

Getting Democrats a bigger majority in the House is an important goal for the party as a whole, no matter who gets nominated for the main race. And we're supposed to be on the same team here, folks.

For such tactics, the whole bunch gets the MDDOTW award.

 

OK, onward to this week's talking points, made available (as always) to Democrats everywhere who might be interviewed by the media this weekend. So without further ado....

 

Volume 25 (3/28/08)

 

   Passenger's Bill of Rights

The Supreme Court just gave Democrats a gigantic present, wrapped in a bow. All Democrats have to do is realize it, and open it up -- but they've got to do it quickly. The Court ruled that New York state can't have a "Passenger's Bill of Rights" law different from federal aviation laws, because it's interstate commerce (and therefore the federal government's problem).

This means that Democrats in Congress need to get a bill out right away to change the FAA laws to include the Passenger's Bill of Rights.

Because everybody who flies -- Republican and Democrat -- will support it overwhelmingly, which will conveniently paint the Republicans into a corner. They will have a choice: support it, or face it on the campaign trail this year.

"Democrats believe the flying public should not have to check all their rights with their baggage when they fly. We strongly support the federal Passenger's Bill of Rights, and challenge our opponents to do the same -- or explain why to their voters this fall."

 

   Outsourcing passports?

The Bush administration is spinning hard to explain why it is necessary to have the key component to the new United States passports (computer chips) made outside the U.S.

This one is just teed up and waiting to be smacked down the fairway.

"Apparently the Bush administration feels that it's OK to outsource the creation of American passports. I guess Bush feels that there aren't any Americans who could be doing this work. But it really isn't that surprising, when you consider how many American companies have moved their jobs overseas during the Bush years. To say nothing of the security implications of having foreign companies making supposedly secure passport components."

 

   Bush's "normalcy" in Iraq

President Bush recently, about the situation this week in Iraq: "Normalcy is returning back to Iraq." Bush's complete denial of reality needs to be pointed out as often as possible in the next week, since Petraeus and Crocker are due to give their six-month report to Congress early next month. Call it a pre-emptive strike.

"If President Bush can watch the scenes we are seeing on our television screens nightly and say that quote normalcy is returning unquote to the country, then why should any American believe anything he says about Iraq at all? His viewpoint is so divorced from reality it's an embarrassment for this country."

 

   Are we helping Maliki win Iraq's election?

Reliable reports from Basra are sketchy (at best) at the present time, but one rumor seems to be persisting in both Iraq and in the American media: that weeks after Dick Cheney visited Maliki and pressured him to get their local elections law passed (what I'm predicting will wind up as this year's GOP "October Surprise" in our own elections), Maliki is using the American military to help him squash his own political rivals in Basra. Now that we've started dropping bombs on Basra from American planes, this issue really needs to be addressed. From McClatchy:

A law covering provincial elections went into effect last week after U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney strong-armed the presidency council into allowing it to pass. While the Islamic Supreme Council is more powerful than Sadr is in much of the country, Sadr is much more popular among poor Shiites. Provincial elections could undercut the Supreme Council's influence in the south, and many see the government offensive as a move to thwart Sadr's political ambitions.

Great. That's just great. I would laugh if this all weren't so deadly serious.

"Is President Bush making deals with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki to use the American military in an internal Iraqi political struggle? I don't think this is what America signed up for in Iraq. The White House needs to provide some answers about our involvement in Basra, and whether it is truly targeting only one Shi'ite militia -- at Maliki's request -- while giving others a free hand."

 

   We just won't tell you

Here is the entire text of this cheerful Associated Press story:

The Agriculture Department is thinking about holding back the names of retailers where tainted meat went for sale if there is no extreme health risk involved.

That means the requirement that retailers be made public wouldn't apply in recalls deemed less dangerous -- like the 143 million pounds of meat recalled from a Southern California slaughterhouse last month.

The potential change comes as the Agriculture Department works to finalize a two-year-old proposed rule that, as originally drafted, would have made retailers' names public during all meat recalls.

The agency is under pressure from the food industry, which opposes naming retailers during recalls.

Once again, this just writes itself:

"Bush's Department of Agriculture has come up with a novel way of keeping the public safe from tainted meat -- don't let them know about it. Boy, that'll really help solve the problem and let consumers feel good about the meat they buy! Is this where FEMA director Michael Brown wound up working, or what?"

 

   I guess baseball fans are ready for a new president

The Washington Nationals will open their new season (and their new ballpark) Sunday night at 6:00 P.M., and President Bush will be throwing out the first pitch. The big question for political observers -- will he be cheered, or will boos be audible?

This one is admittedly a cheap shot, and will only work if the cameras actually pick up any booing, but I just couldn't resist.

"Baseball fans have rendered their verdict on Bush's legacy when he threw out the first pitch. The country as a whole obviously wants to move on from the Bush years."

 

   A cross-shaped hole in the ground

The Chronicle of Higher Education ran their own amusing contest recently, for people to write in their ideas for the design of Bush's Presidential Library, on the back of an envelope. Some of these are serious attempts at architecture, and some are just hilarious. The winning entry was one of the amusing ones.

"A man in Texas was just awarded a prize for the best design of the Bush Library in a contest the Chronicle of Higher Education ran. The winning entry was a cross-shaped hole in the ground, which the public cannot enter, with a White House facade to lend it credibility. I can't think of anything more appropriate, myself."

 

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

Full archives of FTP columns: FridayTalkingPoints.com

 

Comments

[Thatcher]

Well - Obama didn't pick up 5 from Texas - but he pretty much held his delegate count there from March 4 caucuses. So, by the delegate count (which is how the nominee is decided) - Obama's delegate count from the weekend in Texas shows that when combining the delegate counts in the two-step, Obama wins Texas.

[DemandTruth]

Chris, I love your interactive blogs! And my FAVE episode of Star Trek too :)

I'm not really a betting gal, as I have terribly bad luck and always seem to lose. So, taking that into consideration, I'm betting 10Q that Clinton will take it (or be given it) on the next to last day of the convention. 8/27. I don't believe much that she says, but I DO believe her when she says she's in it to the end, for better or worse. Needless to say, that's one bet I'm hoping will be consistent with my track record.

I'd like to leave you with a tantalizing little tidbit for all the Trekkies on the HuffPo! Enjoy (open-minded adults only, please ;)
http://youtube.com/watch?v=3uxTpyCdriY

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

DemandTruth -

I like a two-way conversation, and also wish more bloggers did so. I can't do it every single time, but Fridays I almost always make the time for it.

Small bets are acceptible, too. I'll put you down for 10Q on 8/27, Clinton takes it. Want a side bet on whether we'll see fisticuffs on the convention floor? Heh heh.

Whether or not Clinton drops out, I think that her whole candidacy right now is "I'm a fighter" so I think she pretty much has to say what she's saying now about staying in until the end. We'll see whether it holds true or not...

I'll check out the YouTube thing, promise.

-CW

[DemandTruth]

Thanks for accepting my small bet. Since I'm in it to lose it, I can't afford to lose too much fictional coin. It's hard to say who would win an Obama vs. Clinton smackdown. I guess it really depends on if it was a fair fight or a street fight. They're both pretty scrappy, but you gotta always count on it being a tag-team with Hillary and Bill!

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Quick tally from the bookmaker here.
This comment is in two parts (the comment word count limit seems to have reappeared):

INCOMPLETE BETS
============
Michale32086 -- they let you back on here? Heh heh. Thanks for the website plug! While your side bet is interesting (photos may be required as proof), you've got to pick a single day. Since you're earliest so far, how about the 30th?
spermwhale -- c'mon, pick a day! Join in!
fullkelly and PingMamaSpouse -- I need convention dates to properly register your bets. Also, I'm assuming PingMamaSpouse is betting on Clinton at the convention, but re-reading it, I could be wrong...

Also, since 5/7 seems to be so popular, everyone betting on it needs to pick a time (East Coast) for tiebreaking purposes. 11:00AM is already taken, so I'm going to throw my marker down on 10:00AM.

All of you who felt "quatloos" was just too silly to type will be down for a standard 100 quatloo bet (100Q). Here's what we've got so far:

[nypoet22]

Looks like i'm a little late to the party. lacking any better information, i'm betting 100Q that June 21 (my birthday) will be the day it finally gets decided. Two weeks after the last primary, clinton is still a bit behind on delegates and starts to feel the pressure from the rest of the party to exit the race. after a few more days of intense negotiations, she and obama reach a settlement. At a June 21st joint press conference, clinton drops out of the race and obama offers her the VP spot. they kiss and make up, then go back to the hotel for a 3-way with bill.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

[shudder]

OK, I've got your bet down, nypoet22. I'm going to try and forget about that last bit...

-CW

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

4/25-30 -- Michale32086 -- 10,000 Quatloos, dresses in Star Trek garb if loses -- Obama wins, Clinton forced out.

5/6 (late) or 5/7 (when NC/IN results are in) -- PioneerKing -- 100Q, insane side bet on Nader -- Clinton wins, Obama drops out.
5/7 -- [your humble bookmaker] -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out.
5/7 -- PingMama -- 100Q, side bet with hubby for diamond earrings -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out.
5/7, 11:00AM Eastern -- chlllfactor -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out (not quietly)
5/7 -- stavros -- 100Q -- Obama by default, Clinton switches parties (!)

5/8 -- Halfwit -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out.

5/20 -- Kishadawn -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out

5/22 -- grendl -- 100Q at special 2:1 odds for excellent "Aliens" quote -- Barack wins.

6/4 -- MilwaukeeMarc -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out
6/4 -- PioneerKing -- 100Q -- Clinton wins, Obama drops out

6/9 (word on street 6/7) -- azpaull -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton forced out by party leaders.

6/11 -- Thatcher -- 2025 quatloos (an appropriate bet!) -- Obama wins by delegate count.

convention -- fullkelly -- 100Q -- Clinton wins
convention -- PingMama's hubby -- 100Q -- Clinton (?)

Thanks to everyone for playing!

-CW

[fullkelly]

Clinton goes the distance and wins it at the convention.

[Michale32086]

HuffPost's Pick

CROSSPOSTED FROM www.chrisweigant.com

Talking Points Rebuttal

1. I was going to make some snide comment. :D But then I actually read the Bill Of Rights you mention and they do not seem out of line. As long as safety isn't compromised, I don't see a problem with it.

2. This one is just begging to be smacked out of the park by the GOP..
"Apparently the Democrats are whining and crying about all the companies moving their operations overseas. They obviously have selective memory because it was Bill Clinton's NAFTA that induced the companies to do it.."
Having said that, I agree that it's crazy to have any part of our passports done overseas.. BUT…
But, when you consider that all of the computers and technology in the Pentagon have components that are also made overseas, is it really such a big deal?? I believe this is an MOOAMH moment…

3. To be fair to Bush, the "normalcy" comment came before the recent upsurge in violence.

4.Non starter.. Only US warplanes are being used and then sparingly..

5. Can't argue with this one. :D

6. Yer right.. Cheap shot. :D

7. Yea, and then we can have an Auschwitz style setup for FDR's Presidential Library or a Jail Cell labeled AMERICANS ONLY for Lincoln's Presidential Library.
This was a very cheap shot by the mag and the guy in Texas… Very cheap…

Michale…..

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Michale32086 -

Been awhile, hasn't it? Welcome back.

1. Yeah, the law's pretty good, it's just a federal/state issue now.

2. OK, I'll bite. What's MOOAMH?

3. Bush and Maliki have a lot riding on what happens in the next week or so. Petraeus' report to Congress will follow almost immediately. Because Democrats have been "out-framed" on this before, I feel they need to get a jump on defining things this week, rather than wait until next week. But they do have to be cautious about what they say, as the jury's still out on what the outcome in Basra will be.

4. We'll see... we'll see...

5. We agree? Oh, the tainted meat thing, yeah that's a pretty hard one to defend...

6. Yeah, but you just KNOW this cheap shot will be taken if boos are audible! Heh heh.

7. Lighten up! It was just a funny contest. Some of the other entries were worse...

Thanks for writing! Everyone else just wanted to play the contest, so I''m giving you a HuffPost Pick for running down the talking points...

-CW

[Michale32086]

MOOAMH = Mountain Out Of A MoleHill argument..

As far as lightening up.. Yea, yer probably right..

But, if you get past all the hysterical Bush bashing (present company excepted, of course :D) Bush really hasn't done anything even remotely close to how bad FDR's or Lincoln's actions were..

Michale.....

[Michale32086]

CROSS POSTED FROM www.chrisweigant.com

I can see Clinton going all the way to the Convention. I just don't think she will be able to (money) or be allowed to (forced out).

So, my prediction is that Obama will have a Cinderella moment in PA and do a LOT better than expected. This will be mostly because of an "October Surprise" (somewhere around 15-20 April) that will nearly devastate Clinton. My guess is that it will have something to do with her tax returns. Anyways, this will allow Obama to almost break even with Clinton in PA. I don't think he will actually beat Clinton in PA, but he could. Within a few days of this dismal showing in PA, Clinton will fold.

10,000 quatloos on Clinton being forced out between 25-30 April. If I am wrong, I will shave my head, don a black robe and change my name to Galt. I would have my wife die her hair silver and get into that nifty glittery jumpsuit, but I don't think she would go for that.. :D

CW: "but George Bush doesn't want anything to spoil his fun at the Olympics?"

Just can't resist the Bush jab, eh? :D Just remember, it was Pelosi who stated that the US should NOT boycott the olympics…

Actually, while your choice for Pelosi as MIDOTW is the correct one, I think it should be for telling your MDDOTW winners to take their letter and stuff it..

Michale.....

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Michale (I'm not going to type those numbers every single time) -

That's an interesting prediction for PA. I was shocked, myself, when I heard on the news "there are still four weeks until Pennsylvania votes" -- four weeks! A lot can happen in that time....

Christine Pelosi (Nancy's daughter) put it best: "If she could stand up to China, a few donors aren't going to sway her." I hope everyone will join me in wishing Speaker Pelosi a happy 67th birthday this weekend as well!

-CW

[Michale32086]

April 28th will see Hillary go down in flames...

As far as dignified....??? Doubtful...

Michale.....

[azpaull]

June 9, but word will leak out during the weekend before (Saturday the 7th).

All the states (& #51 Puerto Rico) are done on the 3rd, Gov. Dean and Co. work the phones and then bring the candidates in on Friday the 6th. Presents Sen. Clinton with the bad news (she already knew) and works out agreement between Sen. Obama and Clinton.

What's the deal? You'll have to wait for the Sunday pundits to get it half-right, and then learn the other half the next day.

[Halfwit]

Hillary drops out May 8.

[stavros]

All over now. May 7th Hillary switches parties.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

stavros -

Hoo boy! That's a whale of a prediction you got there!! Maybe her and Joe Leiberman form a ticket? Heh.

-CW

[chlllfactor]

May 7th - Clinton makes the announcement @ 11:00 AM EST. However, she will not exit quietly.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

chlllfactor -

OK, May 7th (Obama gets it) is yours. Nice of you to provide a time, too! But "she will not exit quietly" -- will she scream loudly during her drop-out speech? Or did you perhaps mean something else?

:-)

-CW

[Kishadawn]

HuffPost's Pick

I'm using the previous post's format and changing the numbers.

*** March 29 Texas county conventions give Obama 4 more delegates ( by moving 5 from Clinton) in the estimate than he has now ***--I changed that because it sounds like Texas Caucus locations are not even posted on the websites.....

Pennsylvania delegates (158)

Clinton 91

Obama 67

*** April 26 - Iowa district conventions give Obama 5 more delegates than now - to 30 (3 from Clinton and 2 from Edwards) ****

Guam delegates (4)

Clinton 2

Obama 2

North Carolina delegates (115)

Clinton 47

Obama 68

Indiana delegates (72)

Clinton 34

Obama 38

***** Superdelegate counts will now favor Obama *****

West Virginia delegates (28)

Clinton 29

Obama 23

Kentucky delegates (51)

Clinton 29

Obama 22

Oregon delegates (52)

Clinton 21

Obama 31

Clinton Drops Out------May 20th

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Kishadawn -

You also get a HuffPick for the effort. But you gotta go back and change WV, as Thatcher's numbers don't add up...

Got you down for Obama wins it by default, May 20.

-CW

[MilwaukeeMarc]

Clinton folds on June 4th. Obama beats McCain by 26 electoral votes in November. :)

[Thatcher]

Thanks Marc - sounds about right.

[PioneerKing]

Sen. Obama punks out on June 4th.
Sen. Clinton sucks wind and Sen. McCain wins by 11 points in November.

[Thatcher]

HuffPost's Pick

Chris - you included the supers in your post for the upcoming races ... I'll give elected delegate counts:

*** March 29 Texas county conventions give Obama 5 more delegates ( by moving 5 from Clinton) in the estimate than he has now ***

Pennsylvania delegates (158)

Clinton 84

Obama 74

*** April 26 - Iowa district conventions give Obama 5 more delegates than now - to 30 (3 from Clinton and 2 from Edwards) ****

Guam delegates (4)

Clinton 2

Obama 2

North Carolina delegates (115)

Clinton 49

Obama 66

Indiana delegates (72)

Clinton 33

Obama 39

***** Superdelegate counts will now favor Obama *****

West Virginia delegates (28)

Clinton 29

Obama 23

Kentucky delegates (51)

Clinton 28

Obama 23

Oregon delegates (52)

Clinton 21

Obama 31

Puerto Rico delegates (55)

Clinton 31

Obama 24

Montana delegates (16)

Clinton 7

Obama 9

South Dakota delegates (15)

Clinton 6

Obama 9

June 4 - Pelosi, Reid and other high level Dems call for Clinton to drop out

June 11 - Obama passes 2025 with supers

June 14 - Iowa state convention ends with 35 Obama and 10 Clinton

June 16 - Clinton drops out

[Thatcher]

Oh, I forgot ... after NC - Edwards will finally endorse Obama.

2025 quatloos

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Thatcher -

Wow, I'm impressed. OK, I'm going to give you a HuffPost pick for the effort. Anyone can play this game (without doing all the adding) over at CNN, they have a "delegate math game" page where you can divvy up each upcoming state, and the superdels as well, and it does all the math for you automatically. It's actually kinda fun, if you're into wonky stuff:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

Enjoy! [I'm putting you down for 100 Q's on June 11th for Obama to wrap it up.]

-CW

[Thatcher]

Oops … WV should be 17 Clinton, Obama 11