A battle is currently being fought in Libya over the town of Brega, which could turn out to have strategic importance for the rebel forces. This battle has been underway for days now, and may continue for days to come. The American media has so far been ignoring this development in the Libyan revolution, perhaps due to lack of solid information from the frontlines. But it deserves a bit more attention than it has so far been getting.
Brega is a coastal town, but more importantly it is an oil depot which ships the oil out from central Libyan oil fields. Control of the town during the whole Libyan conflict has switched hands from Libyan government forces to the rebels, and then back to the loyalist forces once again -- but most of this happened in the early lightning push by the rebels, and the forceful response by the government troops, in the first weeks of the fighting. Since then, it has remained in the loyalists' hands as the easternmost city they hold. Which puts Brega on the frontlines of the fight.
The Libyan war has been called a "stalemate" so often by the media that they've now stopped paying attention, for the most part. But this facile label isn't entirely true. The rebels have been quietly building up and training their forces, and have had both major and minor victories in the meantime. Holding the western city of Misrata has been the most spectacular of these to date, but in recent weeks the rebels have opened up a corridor in the mountains southwest of Tripoli, and have been advancing towards the capital in fits and starts. These pockets of resistance in the western part of Libya may eventually be the most important militarily (if they manage to advance all the way to Tripoli's outskirts), but the eastern half of the country may prove to be more important to the rebels' overall chances of success, in strategic terms. Because whoever controls Brega will control the oil the town can ship out. Which would be a huge source of income for the rebels. And this war may wind up being one of attrition, in the end.
Reports from the battlefield are sketchy, at best. Wild claims by both sides are made and then quickly refuted. The rebels claimed they held Brega after the first day of fighting, and that they had routed the loyalists who were in retreat towards the next coastal town to the west, Ras Lanuf. The Libyan government claimed it had killed over 500 rebels, without any sort of proof. After the dust settled on the battling propaganda, it seems that the town is now still held by government troops, but they are currently under siege by rebel troops which have surrounded the town. The government forces have pulled off at least one successful ambush of the rebels, by either (reports are sketchy) dressing as rebels in a vehicle with rebel markings to get close enough to attack the rebel forces, or by spies infiltrated into the rebel ranks who broadcast their location via satellite phone to the government troops. The rebels have also run into minefields laid down by the loyalists, which have been brutally effective.
The initial attack by the rebels was reportedly made by both sea and land (and, one assumes, N.A.T.O. air cover as well). If true, this is a more complex and coordinated military operation than the rebels have so far shown the ability to carry out. Which shows the improvement in the rebel forces, and the effect of training. It also shows that the rebels now have access to a military supply chain which did not exist in the heady first weeks of the war. Pictures of the advance on Brega show heavy artillery and other modern weapons, instead of ancient rocket launchers hastily attached to pickup trucks with what seemed to be nothing more than bailing wire. The unspoken assumption is that the rebels' friends in the rest of the world have found a way to get such equipment to the battlefront. Which, again, could be key in the longer war.
Brega stands at roughly the midpoint of importance between the larger Libyan coastal cities of Benghazi and Sirte. Benghazi, to the east, is the rebel "capital," where the transition government has set up shop. Sirte, to the west, is a Gaddafi loyalist stronghold. For the rebel forces in the east, the entire war's fighting has taken place on the hundreds of miles of coastal road between these two cities. In the initial mad dash across the desert, the rebels made it all the way from Benghazi to the outskirts of Sirte -- through Ajdabiya, Brega, and Ras Lanuf. But here they were halted by the superior loyalist forces. When the rebel wave broke, it almost collapsed entirely. The loyalist tanks quickly swept back eastward, making it through Ajdabiya all the way to the outskirts of Benghazi -- where they, in turn, were stopped by N.A.T.O. jumping in the fray. After being forced to retreat to Benghazi, the rebels fairly quickly succeeded in retaking Ajdabiya. But the loyalists held on to Brega, and the war's frontline has been between the two towns ever since.
By doing so, the loyalists cut off the rebels' access to the oil shipments (and the money flow, as well). But Gaddafi has his own logistical problems in that regard. When the war began, the world's banks cut off access to Libyan deposits, which left Gaddafi with only what he had stashed away for just such a rainy day (so to speak). Reports of how big a stash of cash Gaddafi had available differed, but most agreed he had enough money for months -- to get through the summer, at least. That time may now be running out, as the Libyan government's cash reserves must be dwindling fast.
The other logistical problem Gaddafi may be facing is a shortage of military supplies. He is cut off from the world by land and sea, but may still be bringing in supplies overland from the south, from other African countries. He may also be bringing in mercenary fighters via the same route. This is mostly speculation, as (once again) facts are hard to come by in the midst of a war, it should be admitted. But even if Gaddafi does have this conduit open to him, it depends on a dangerous (for him) equation. Because in order to receive shipments of ammunition (or of foreign fighters), Gaddafi's got to ship out an equal amount of money. Since his money's not going to last forever, this will not continue indefinitely.
Taking the long view strategically, the rebels seem to be in much better shape than Gaddafi. The rebels are being resupplied with ammunition and equipment, they just got diplomatic recognition from the United States, and they may soon be able to tap into the tens of billions of Libyan dollars frozen in Western banks since the war started. The rebel troops seem to be better trained and more serious these days than the "ragtag band" which raced across the desert to the west (and just as quickly retreated east) in the opening days of the war. Plus, they seem to now have the momentum militarily, even if it is a slow momentum to watch unfold.
The loyalist forces, on the other hand, are reportedly demoralized (although such reports have to be taken with a grain of salt due to the prevalence of propaganda by both sides so far). Their ammunition hasn't seemed to run out yet, but the stockpiles must be getting smaller by the day -- and these stockpiles continue to be pounded by bombardment from N.A.T.O. planes. If Gaddafi starts running out of money, one wonders how many loyalist forces will continue fighting without getting paid. The government is almost completely isolated diplomatically on the world stage. And the loyalist troops haven't had a major victory in months, while they've lost Misrata, Ajdabiya, and an entire corridor in the mountains southwest of Tripoli. Losing Brega would be another major blow to their efforts to hold territory.
Victory certainly isn't assured for the rebels, by any stretch of the imagination. They may not even be successful in their attempt this week to take Brega. Also, a very big fear the rebels now have is that they'll take Brega, but that the loyalists will destroy the oil shipping facilities as they leave. For now, the rebels have the city besieged (at least, according to them). If the rebels do manage to take the city, then Ras Lanuf could quickly fall into their hands as well (it's a tiny place, unlike Brega). But Sirte is likely to remain in government hands until the end of the conflict, due to it not only being a military center but also a center of political support for Gaddafi himself.
Even so, the battle for Brega may be a crucial one. While it is way too early to speak of "turning points" or "tipping points," victory in Brega would undeniably be a boost for the rebel effort just on a psychological scale. It would be a major military victory for the rebels as well. If the oil facilities can be quickly repaired and put back into service, this could be vastly important for the nascent rebel government, because it would provide a solid future source of income. With such a money source, the rebels' position to survive a slow war of attrition with the loyalists will improve dramatically.
The battle for Brega is not "the battle for Libya." It may later be seen as a turning point, but it just as easily could miss being decisive in any way. One thing is for certain, though -- the world's media should be paying a little less attention to Rupert Murdoch's wife right now, and a little more attention to what is going on in Libya.
[Note: The best source of day-to-day information about the Libyan conflict is, unsurprisingly, Al Jazeera's Libya Blog page, which aggregates all reports they can find on Libya. You have to read between the lines of both the loyalist and rebel statements, but it is the most complete source I've found yet.]
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Some in fact, he is not cut off by land.
Salute, that is the best single report on Libya that I have read in a while.
Of course the political issue remains of are we doing the right thing in backing these rebel forces? While Qadaffi is certainly and enemy the one rule of that art of the world, is that the enemy of your enemy is not always your friend.
Secondary of course is our involvement in the war without Congressional approval in violation of War Powers Resolution title 50, chapter 30 section 1541 (subsection C)
The constitutional powers of the President as Commander-in-Chief to introduce United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, are exercised only pursuant to
(1) a declaration of war,
(2) specific statutory authorization, or
(3) a national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.
But we have discussed that before.
Thanks for the kind salute, and words. I cannot officially return the salute, being a civilian. :-)
As you point out, there are larger political issues, but I just wanted to concentrate on what was going on in the fighting here. Or at least, what's being reported (and not).
-CW
You also need to acknowledge that if Gadhafi does not have the popular support of his People, the War would probably have ended with all loyal fighters deserting him
Al-Jazeera is owned and controlled by the Cousin of the Emir of Qatar. For those that didn't know, Qatar is one of the Coalition Countries supporting the Rebels through military and economic means.
Qatar helps the Rebels to sell Libya's oil in the International Market. Qatar also supplies the Rebels with arms and ammunition in contravention of UN Arms embargo over Libya.
Qatar and Al-Jazeera are two sides of a coin. hence, you can not in all honesty, say you get balanced report on Libya from the Station; Unless you are a supporter of the Rebels.
I've been following Al Jazeera for quite a number of years now. If you're looking for substantive coverage of what's happening in the Middle East and North Africa, then you are really doing yourself a great disservice by ignoring the regional perspectives found on Al Jazeera and dismissing them out of hand - especially considering US interests in the region, not to mention what is happening in Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq.
Given the general state of incompetence and ineptitude that characterizes much of the mainstream media in the US, I think if you take the time to have a look at what Al Jazeera has to offer you may be surprised by how valuable you find the coverage.
Of course, it should go without saying that we have to use our own critical thinking skills and be able to use our own good judgement when evaluating the news we consume, regardless of the source.
Karl Naylor posted a good piece in late March noting that most of the refining and shipping capability of Libya is well to the west of Tripoli and rather closer to Benghazi, with a big chunk of the assets clustered around Ras Lanuf.
http://karl-naylor.blogspot.com/2011/03/stakes-in-libyan-war.html
It's worth pointing out that at this stage of the war these assets are of no immediate economic use to Kadhafi, since NATO is effectively blockading them with a combination of naval forces and economic sanctions. The blockade does not apply to the NTC and they would unquestionably like to gain control of them and begin trading oil to the West.
However, it might be quicker and less risky for the NTC to simply expand substantial existing facilities already in rebel control to the east of Ras Lanuf. Reports of the NTC forming a new "Libyan Oil Company" also surfaced in late March.
http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2011/03/why-the-libyan-rebels-will-probably-win.html
Thanks for the links, I will check them out.
One minor point (I had to fix several such typos in my own story before publishing it) -- you say "well to the west of Tripoli" when I think you meant to say "east".
-CW
I guess the major points that need to be set straight are better left ignored. I've decided to try that tactic myself. Blame it on the heat.
Fortunately, they have been debunked by Human Rights Watch.
You make a good point about the dangers of sectarian violence as rebel forces advance through Loyalist towns. The NTC likely has little control of local rebel fighters. I believe this is one of the reasons that NATO doesn't seem to provide them with a lot of direct support, including air support. NATO would prefer the rebels take, hold and defend their home towns and stay there after Kadhafi falls from internal economic pressures. Things might not work out that way - that's the calculated risk part.
Apparently, you do not recall how Gaddafi precipitated this UN-sanctioned NATO-led humanitarian military intervention. A careful review of recent history may be in order.
Supplies from the south seem unlikely to me since there are only two major roads that I am sure are guarded by the NATO. If any it will be light arms that would make it through, nothing that will have an impact on the battle field.
Good analysis and thank you for your contribution!
PS: Don't know why I keep remembering Rommel =)
The notion of tribes in Libya is highly exaggerated. It has been used by many to save Gaddafi's skin in speaking of the revolt in Libya (They use notions from pre 1951 Libya even when things have changed; the relations among tribe members is highly affected by speed in movement and communication.)
2) The Gdaddfa and Mgharha supposedly Gaddafi's tribe know of what his militia have done, the word is out and many are totally are against him and are ashamed to have the name.
I am sure the Coalition Countries are amazed that he has been able to hold his ground after five months of his forces fighting as total underdogs.
Saying the issue of tribes in Libya is over-hyped is far from the truth.
Libya has 140 tribal groupings, whose heads, Gadhafi used to govern the individual tribes. These tribes, as you know, have mutual distrust for one another.
You didn't tell us that the NATO supported Rebels are mainly from the Eastern part of Libya.
You didn't tell us that the People that are repelling Rebel advances into Brega are tribal groups indigenous to Brega and not some Gadhafi forces from Tripoli.
You didn't tell us that Libya has almost 7million Population that the Rebels major strongholds of Benghazi and Misrata have a combined population of less than 800,000.
The 140 tribes will be at each orders jugular once Gadhafi leaves. That is when reality will dawn on the Coalition Countries that, like Afghanistan and Iraq, they are stuck in Libya as Peacekeeping and enforcing forces.