The rebels are on the move in Libya.
Unfortunately, getting answers to the question "where exactly are they moving?" from the American media is not that easy. There are a few reasons for this, but before I get to that, here's the map the media really should be providing on a regular basis (but are not). [I suggest you open this map in a separate browser window, to use as a helpful reference for the rest of this article.]
The Libyan rebels have launched an offensive from all three of the major areas they currently control. The eastern part of Libya (see the smaller inset map at the bottom of the battle map) is the area around the rebel stronghold (and governmental center) of Benghazi. This is the largest area in the country which the rebels control. The fight westward from Benghazi to the Gaddafi-held Sirte has ebbed and flowed over the course of the war. Currently, the battle for Brega (which I wrote about a few weeks ago) is still being fought. The slowdown in the rebels' advance here is due in large part to the new tactic the loyalist forces are using -- withdrawing from an area after laying hundreds of landmines. Clearing out these mines is slow and dangerous work (a recent photo showed over three thousand anti-personnel mines removed from Brega and disarmed). The rebels have taken over the eastern half of Brega, but the loyalists still control the western half of the city, and the refineries and pipelines.
While the rebel advance has slowed in Brega, though, it has sped up noticeably in Libya's west. The battle map shows this section of the country in detail. The ultimate objective, of course, is Tripoli. To Tripoli's east is the second rebel-held area, around the city of Misrata (rebel-held areas are red on the map, loyalist-held areas are in green). The battle for the city of Misrata was the rebels' first real victory in this civil war, and in recent weeks the frontlines have moved out from the city itself to the surrounding towns. The rebels have expanded their perimeter to the point that loyalists cannot shell Misrata any more, because they've been pushed back out of range. Moving southwards along the coast, the rebels took Tarwerga, and today reports are coming in that the rebels have taken Al Heisha (which, unfortunately is not on the map, but seems to be further down the road to Sirte than Tarwerga). In addition to this, the rebels are also pushing west from Misrata, moving the fight along the coast to the city of Zlitan.
In the westernmost part of the country, the rebels have had their biggest successes since securing Misrata. Starting from the border, the rebels have taken town after town until they now control the entire chain of the Nafusa Mountains. A few weeks ago, they took the town of Zintan, and as you can see on the battle map, they have quickly advanced from there in two separate directions.
The rebels are trying to take the words "the noose is tightening around Gaddafi" in quite literal fashion. It seems obvious that the rebels are attempting to encircle Tripoli, and due to the fact that there just aren't a lot of roads in or out, this objective may actually soon be within their grasp.
Isolating Tripoli means cutting off supply lines between it and everywhere else the loyalist forces hold, and from any of Libya's borders. In the past week, the rebels are reported to have taken the town of Gharyan, which is crucial to achieving this goal. Cutting off the supply line to the south at Gharyan is a major part of the rebels' pincers movement. The other major part of this plan of attack is cutting off the coastal route from Tripoli to Tunisia. The rebels initially took and held a key bridge along this route, and have expanded to holding the town of Surman and fighting the battle for the city of Zawiyah. Currently the rebels hold portions of the city, and the loyalists are said to still hold about a third of the town. The hospital has apparently been taken over for military use by the loyalists, but the rebels have claimed to have shut off the coastal oil pipeline to Tripoli. Zawiyah (like Brega) is a refinery town, and the rebels seem to be in control of the refinery at this point. It is also only about 30 miles down the road from Tripoli -- the closest the rebels have yet gotten to their main objective.
If the rebels can hold on to Zawiyah and Gharyan, they may have reached a tipping point in their war effort. Holding a section of the coastal road from Tunisia to Tripoli is a major blow to the loyalist forces in the capital, as this road is the major supply route for the Tripoli. Gasoline and other fuel are reported to already be in short supply in Tripoli, and if Gaddafi loses both the coastal road and his southern supply route as well, then Tripoli will be cut off from any further resupply.
The rebels' next move is obvious. Keep the pressure on in Brega. The rebel forces around Misrata have the objective of taking Zlitan and holding it, and then moving up the coastal route to Tripoli to take Al Khums. The objective of the rebels in Gharyan will be to secure the city (and the supply road south), and then move north and take Al Aziziya. Eventually, the forces from Misrata and the forces from Gharyan can meet in the middle, at Tarhuna, which will complete the encircling of Tripoli, and cut off Ghaddafi from the rest of his loyalist forces elsewhere in the country. To the west of Tripoli, the rebels need to expand the section of coast they control in both directions.
If all goes well for the rebel forces, they will soon be within reach of the goal of completely surrounding Tripoli. There have been rumors that the Gaddafi government and the rebels are holding secret talks in Tunisia, but these rumors have been denied by both sides. Even if the talks are taking place, it's hard to imagine the rebels would give in on any of their demands -- starting first and foremost with Gaddafi stepping down from power. The only thing the talks may achieve is avoiding the final battle for Tripoli itself, which will be brutal.
The American media has been beating the drum of "the Libyan war is a stalemate" so long that they've been slow to realize the changing picture on the ground there. Rather than a ragtag bunch of guys who had never fired a gun before, the rebel forces are showing that they've spent the last six months getting a lot better at what they are doing. They have not achieved it yet, but they are on the brink of turning that battle map of Libya from one largely tinted green (with pockets of red) to one of mostly red (with ever-shrinking pockets of green).
I realize it is hard to keep track of what is going on in Libya. For one thing, Americans aren't on the ground there (although they are in the skies and off the coast at sea), meaning there have been zero American troop deaths so far. For another thing, all the location names (as well as the leader's name) have to be translated from Arabic -- which is a phonetic language. This means various different English spellings of each particular name (there is no "correct" spelling of any of these, in English), both in the news and on the web. And none of these locations -- with the exception of Tripoli -- are very familiar to Americans. All of this contributes to the lack of data in the media on what the situation is on the ground in Libya.
But every once in a while, it is nice to actually see a map of what is taking place. This week is a good one to take a look at the battle map, and watch the rebels' advance. So far, in this offensive, the rebels have not lost any ground at all. They've been slowed down by the landmines in Brega, but everywhere else they are gaining ground by the day. Eventually the rebels' advance may be halted, or even turned back. There are no sure things in war. But even though the United States is in a peripheral role in this fight, the media need to wake up and realize the situation is changing in Libya. And it wouldn't be too much to ask to see a map of what is going on, rather than just the usual "Rebels have taken the town of [insert hard-to-pronounce Arabic name], but we're too lazy to show you where that actually is and what it actually means."
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You made one factual mistake though:
" A few weeks ago, they took the town of Zintan, and as you can see on the battle map, they have quickly advanced from there in two separate directions."
Zintan has in fact been held by the opposition since February. It was one of the cities who rose up first. It was under siege for a long time. It's kind of an anchor in the Nafusa mountain front.
On the other stuff, I haven't been following this conflict since 22.07. So I'm not into all of the recent developments.
I was using Zintan as the sort of "previous frontline" example, but you're right I probably should have said "few months ago." Mea culpa.
The other thing I meant to include in this article but forgot to was the fact that the loyalists in Sirte fired off a Scud missle a few days ago, towards the east. It could have been aimed at Brega (Scuds aren't "guided" and therefore are wildly inaccurate, so it's hard to tell what they were aiming at). It exploded harmlessly in the desert, 50 miles from anything. But it is a new development, since it's the first Scud to be yet fired in the war.
Libya was estimated to have around 100 Scuds before the fight began. NATO took out most of them, but obviously a few survived the bombardment. They're not a very effective weapon, but the loyalist forces are now obviously prepared to start using the ones they still have.
-CW
Well, thank you, I appreciate the kind words. You're right -- I get paid exactly the same (nothing) as all the other bloggers here. Heh.
-CW
Very informative column. It is easy to forget that we are still engaged over there.
Now here is the question, looking at the map, the strategy and coordination of the attacks involves high level military planning and communication skills. So is this direction and planning coming unassisted from locals or is there outside assistance from military experts? and if the strategic expertise and advise is from outside then exactly who is providing it? Nato or people who do not have our best interest at heart?
The individual battle "tactics" can be learned quickly in the moment by the fighters on the ground, but the 'strategy" of coordinating large movements, putting together supply lines, communication strategies, etc is a skill it usually takes time to develop.
I admire the courage of the fighters on the Ground and a peoples desire to be free of a tyrant but exactly who is their military George Washington and Baron von Steuben ??
Or Rochambeau, for that matter, eh?
The military leadership of the rebels is an unknown, at least from the outside looking in. A week or so ago, their overall military leader in the east was killed -- or, more correctly, "fragged" -- by rebel troops. There may be factionalism developing in the eastern rebels, in other words -- or it may have been solved by this assassination, it's unclear. There are military leaders who have defected and are working with the rebels, so don't discount Libyans doing their own (ground) battle planning. In the early stages of the war, their big complaint was no coordination with the NATO strikes, but that seems to have gotten a lot better. As I said below, Qatar is openly supplying the rebels (arms and ammunition arrive on Qatari planes, and have Qatari military markings on the crates). France is likely working very closely with the rebels as well.
The real untold story here (I think -- this is pure supposition) is how the rebels spent a goodly amount of time planning the current offensive. Three groups of rebels coordinated their attacks to do the most damage at the same time. So far, the battle plan has been pretty successful.
-CW
As you say "The real untold story here (I think -- this is pure supposition) is how the rebels spent a goodly amount of time planning the current offensive. Three groups of rebels coordinated their attacks to do the most damage at the same time. "
And that is evident by the map and requires a level of sophistication not seen in the early phases of the fighting. Your thoughts on senior Libyan military leaders that switched sides is a very plausible speculation but outside members whose real objectives may be counter to ours is also possible.
Then there is the possibility of CIA / Spec Forces / Elite troops from other NATO partners and that of course would explain the increased air support coordination.
IIRC there are British, French and Italian officers in Benghazi I think helping with something. Perhaps advising on logistics etc.. as you say.
Also there might be some French legionaries vacationing in the western mountains giving advice.
There doesn't seem to be any military figure coordinating things or planning strategy. I think it's more of a comity in each of the fronts. In the Nafusa front they have had trouble getting several sub committees to agree. But perhaps now they've sorted it out.
The rebels are lacking in most areas except for bravery and thirst for freedom.
The coordination, especially in the west, has gotten a lot better. The rebels were so confident this time around, they announced in advance they were about to start an offensive. They were talking about it days (even a week) before it started, to the world media. At the very least, it seems the Misrata forces and the Nafusa Mountain forces are coordinating. It's not as clear with the forces in the east, though.
-CW
Small wonder generals are always looking at maps.
Google earth is pretty informative as well.
"based on the available data, the total direct expenditures of America’s role in Libya is approximately $1.1 billion and counting. Assuredly, there are also covert funds being dispersed (hopefully, with close congressional oversight), and there will be equipment and munitions replacement costs that require additional future funds. In addition, it is impossible to calculate what U.S. personnel and resources will be needed to help stabilize and rebuild Libya after the civil war ends. "
http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2011/08/11/what-does-libya-cost-the-united-states/
Killer rabbit you got there, just had to say that. Heh.
I have seen sporadic coverage of the western fighting, but what truly bugs me is they'll have some quick report on some town in Libya where fighting is happening, and they REFUSE to put a map up on the screen which shows the tactical and strategic situation of the war. Oh, sure, sometimes they do that Google Earth zoomey thing (where you start out miles up and wind up looking at a random building), but it is so fast you can't get any information from it.
Context is completely missing, even when the MSM does bother to mention what is going on.
-CW
http://feb17.info/
http://www.libyafeb17.com/
You also have the wikipedia page for this war. Maps usually show up some place or another.
The Nafusa front went more or less unreported until the rebbels managed to capture the Dahiba border crossing into Tunisia. Thus letting journous in. NATO has been essential. What they'we done is reduce Gadaffi forces so much that the rebels are able to take and hold territory.
The supply line to Tunisia is not that important in it self. It's more of a moral booster for Gadaffi. What's more important is the refinery in Az-Zawiyah which provides fuel for Gadaffi. That is essential. Also the supply line south through Gharyan is very important.
Tunisia is very much opposed to Gadaffi.
Um, no... no I don't. You can argue that NATO is a big reason why the rebels are advancing, but there are no NATO troops on the ground holding any areas whatsoever. You can say "NATO-defended" or "NATO-empowered rebel advance" but it is simply inaccurate to say "NATO-held."
-CW
I agree -- wildfires especially. The fire command center ALWAYS has a very detailed map of where exactly the fire is, and where it is contained, but the media -- local or national -- almost NEVER show this map on the news. They're too busy getting the little "flamey" graphics to dance and burn on some "map" that tells you nothing about where the fire actually is.
-CW
Example:
NATO puts out a daily summary of strike sorties, what they hit and (approximately) where. Why hasn't a major media outlet turned this into an animation neatly encapsulating the air campaign through time? At a simpler level, why don't the media just publish the daily summary?
Heh. OK, that was funny!
-CW