McCain / Rice ?

Since Republicans have all but anointed John McCain as their presidential nominee, it's about time to start speculating on who he's going to choose to fill out his ticket. Most of this speculation has so far centered around the possibilities of McCain giving the nod to one of his primary opponents (Huckabee or Romney), in order to shore up his support among this GOP faction, or that right-wing interest group. Going further afield, there have been some guesses about Republican officeholders who may help a McCain ticket in other ways. But there's one name I haven't heard mentioned yet, one which should worry Democrats: Condoleezza Rice.

Think about it for a second, and you'll realize what a bold stroke it would be for John McCain. He's either going to be running against an African-American or a woman in the general election, so why not add a Republican African-American woman to his ticket?

No one can deny that Condi's got solid Republican credentials. She's even got extremely solid foreign policy credentials (as measured by Republican voters). She's proven to be a loyal underling who won't eclipse her boss in any way. She's also much younger than McCain. She would even shore up McCain's lack of support with the far-right conservatives, which has so far eluded him. Heck, Condi's even got an oil supertanker named after her! In short, an ideal vice presidential candidate for McCain.

Of course, she would tie McCain's campaign to the policies of George W. Bush, but McCain himself seems to have decided that this is the platform he wants to run on. Now, he could tack back to the center after officially wrapping up the Republican nomination, and to do that he'd likely pick a different running mate than Condi. But he's been known for "doubling down" on Bush policies before -- even when everyone in politics told him it'd be suicidal to do so (supporting the Iraq "surge" so strongly) -- so I could see him doing it again, by naming Condi as his candidate for the veepacy (or maybe "for veepification").

This could be a political choice worthy of Machiavelli. Let's face it, John McCain is an old white guy. He's going to have an enormous uphill battle against the winds of history in running against either a white woman or a black man. The only possible way his ticket could be "historic" is to pick as a junior partner a black woman.

This is how the Republicans have always addressed the race issue: find someone from a minority group who is sufficiently conservative to be palatable to the Republican Party at large, and then back them to the hilt to prove that the GOP is not racist, but rather out in front of the Democrats in terms of actually putting minorities into positions of power. This has been their operating method for decades now, so it should come as no surprise if McCain tries this tactic to counter a truly historic Democratic nominee.

If November's election is even close, Condi could peel off enough moderate suburban women for McCain (if Obama's the nominee) or enough black votes (if Clinton gets it) to make a difference in key swing states. Even if only five percent of one of these groups was attracted to McCain because of he is running with Condi, it could swing a few states his way. And as we all know, each and every state may be important in the electoral college.

Now, I'm not saying this is definitively how it's going to happen. Nothing is certain in the political sphere, especially not in this election cycle. But both the Clinton campaign and the Obama campaign should be ready for such a move. Because John McCain could radically realign the choices voters will face in November, by making a surprise announcement that Condoleezza Rice will be his running mate.

And McCain/Rice 08 is going to be a lot harder to beat than McCain/Some-Other-White-Guy 08.

 

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

 

Comments

[JoachimBovier]

Condoleeza Rice is ready to serve as President from day one, better than Hillary Clinton would ever do. And I see that taking a conservative female black running mate John McCain could give an additional special chance winnining the election. I dont have an problem living with this. But I am not sure, that America is ready for a coloured or female President at the White House. And a Vice-President is only one heartbeat from this.
I could become crazy viewing all these liberal lefts during this presidential campaign: Hillary Clinton, we all know her, there is nothing more to say about this liberal feminist witch. Obama a silly megalomaniac mouth-hero without experience, ready to compromise with Cuba and Iran, a native country betrayer who will let us down without any doubt.
In this field of candidates McCain is indeed a hero, the only one electable. But I believe its essential for Republican victory to choose a strong running-mate, able to mobilise true Republican family voters. There is a candiate with all these abilities: courageous with own ideas, standing for a powerful america,
fighting against all liberals from the bottom of her heart: Katherine Harris. There cannt be anyone better for this high ranking office. Female from birth but she is really the only man that stands ! I hope this beloved wonderful heroine become our next Vice-President. I am sure the ticket McCain - Harris will be unbeatable !

[OrangeSam]

Not likely. Imagine this Democratic ad: "If you think George Bush's VP was tight with Big Oil, John McCain's choice has a supertanker named after her."

I especially don't want to think of McCain, good Navy man he is, coming aboard the Condi Rice.

[Nutcase]

Perhaps McWar has already been told who he will be deciding to pick. Has Cheney been assigned the job of picking the major players of his administration? Who did Cheney pick the last time to be VP?

cognito ergo populistae

[TommyMcCarthy]

Personally I think the choice of Condolezza Rice as a running mate for McCain would be a brilliant move on his part, and would enhance his electoral prospects on several levels.
In terms of pure numbers, an Obama/McCain fall campaign (which now appears likely) would be the usual 40/40/20 split: with each candidate more or less able to take for granted about %40 of the electorate, and the battle being for the hearts and minds of the middle 20.

What is VERY different this year is the importance (in my opinion PRIMACY, so far) of identity politics, most visible of course in the Democratic contest where an African American and a woman quickly eclipsed all other challengers (unfortunately, in my view).

Rice could prove a great benefit in this regard. There may be a number of voters who had thier hearts set on seeing a woman in high office centrist enough to cross over and vote Republican, particularly because, on immigration, choice, and many other issues (with the GLARING exception of the war) McCain will not be crediby depicted as the usual fire-breathing hypocritical right winger. (Witness the attacks on him from the RIGHT!)

The Rice choice could also steal a bit of Sen. Obama's thunder as the candidate of CHANGE....... (the holy mantra of identity politics), as well as offer something of a firewall for McCain for this reason:.......

Like it or not, Obama been effective in countering critiques from his opponents by parsing thier statements, then leveling a subtle accusation of racism (usually through surrogates a la S. Carolina).

No one could have forseen a time when significant numbers of voters would believe such a charge of President Clinton, but it happened didn't it? Rice's presence on the ticket could blunt such a charge (which will surely come) against McCain.

I too, admit it's a long shot but McCain is well known for cutting against the grain of conventional wisdom. In terms of pure politics, I'd love to see him do it!

Great thought-provoking piece from Chris Weigant,..as always. Regards....................................tm

[MaxMarginal]

If that was the ticket, it would be the first time in a very long time that there was someone who was single was a major candidate, also quite historic.

By the way, Chris, I can't figure out how to be commenting as a huffpost blogger (i do the Max and the Marginalized blog on here) and want the little marquee!

[LizM]

That's what I would call a great pair.

[geg6]

Ha.

Ha, ha.

Ha, ha, ha, ha!

Bwahahahahahahahaha!

Thanks. That was the best laugh I've had in years.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

geg6 -

No problem - we aim to please!

-CW

[nypoet22]

I agree he'll probably pick someone younger and more energetic, but i don't think Rice would happen. Powell might, as another commenter pointed out. Ultimately I think McCain will pick Romney or Huckabee for vice-president. Or maybe he really will pick Rice if Bush pushes for it. You've heard the credo, "Republicans fall in line." McCain is no exception.

[raptor]

Last year it was predicted by a variety of pundits (where do they find these people?) that Rice would be Clinton's oppnent in the general election, for president. At least at the racetrack, tipsters show their win-loss predictions records. Is it too much to ask that people in the MSM do the same?

And can "we" stop calling her Condi? It makes her sound all warm and cuddly, even when Cheney says it. It's even worse when her critics say or write it.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

raptor -

While I don't consider myself MSM, I have been doing exactly that for the primary races. Here's my latest (toward the end of the piece), complete with win/loss percentages, and links (at the bottom) to every race I've called this year.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/democratic-electoral-shif_b_87285.html

You seriously want to make me type out "Condoleezza" every time I reference her? Sigh. OK, maybe I'll just call her "Rice" from now on, that's nice and short!

-CW

[raptor]

Rice would be fine.

[raptor]

Thanks for the reply. Always nice when posters/bloggers do this.

[youarekillingme]

Are you kidding me? Whoever McCain picks has a good chance of becoming president if he wins in November because McCain could actually die in office because of his age. Do you really think republicans could stand for a black female republican president? That would be far too progressive, even for a so-called right wingnut like Rice. So good luck with that.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

youarekillingme -

Great login name, by the way.

You make an excellent point - that for McCain picking a veep could be a lot more consequential than the normal selection process. McCain is pretty old, so you're right, people may scrutinize his choice a lot closer than they would normally.

-CW

[Nutcase]

Will you please stop calling 71 old? My great grandfather was Tennessee's last surviving Civil War veteran (Union Army). He lived to be 105. While I'm not quite there yet, I often feel as though I am. Anyway, McWar is my contemporary but age and having been in the military are among the very few things we have in common.

cognito ergo populistae

[timm0]

I think it's their best chance. But although you've highlighted where that ticket could make some significant gains, you haven't noted where they'd experience significant losses. I think they'd tend to keep some of their more racist voters at home - especially in the south. I'm powerless to predict what that number might be, but I'm sure the RNC has a very good idea of what it would mean to them.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

timm0 -

You may be right about the suppression of the GOP vote as a result. I wrote Monday about how Dems might eat into the Southern red states this year, and this may help or hurt such an effort. Hmmm... I gotta think about this...

-CW

[Thatcher]

I would agree that a McCain/AA woman ticket would be an interesting ticket. However, I think Rice has too much baggage. Need I say "Osama determined to strike US" paper? Or, any of a long list of gaffes made on her part? Also, she hasn't broken 50% in the excellent/good job rating since 2006.

Again, would be an interesting ticket - and would solidify a block of Republicans and draw some independents. However, I think it would alienate Evangelical Christian Conservatives even more against McCain ("A woman's place, and all") and some of the far far radical right with an AA on the ticket. But I could be wrong.

I think an interesting pick for either Obama or Clinton would be Colin Powell. He's always been independent, yes - he was a Bush Cabinet member - but at the same time he has remained quiet on an endorsement and I think he wants to clear his name from things he had to say/do in that administration. I still shudder every time I think we went to war based upon cartoon drawings of "possible" weapons trailers that may/may not exist and these are what they might look like.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Thatcher -

Colin Powell is an interesting possibility I hadn't considered for McCain. While I would have agreed pre-Iraq that Powell would have been a real steal for the Democrats to put on a ticket, you're right about his credibility after the UN dog and pony show, especially among Dems.

-CW

[raptor]

Colin Powell May Support Democrat Or Independent In 2008 - Politics on The Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/10/colin-powell-may-support-_n_85878.html

[Nutcase]

Powell would tend to overshadow McWar in terms of military and international experience. Since he admits he knows nothing about economics, that would leave McWar with very little, even from his perspective.

cognito ergo populistae

[stupidme]

This McCain/Rice thing is absurd -- First and foremost, she tethers McCain to President Numnuts . Putting that aside though, can you imagine Condi on the campaign trail, particularly standing next to McCain. And who is going to be her beard? Granted, the Bushies will insist on have one of their own to in the White House, but they'll squeeze McCain on some other appointment that's less visible. Plus, Condi, along with Colin Powell will probably be voting for Barack once the curtains close behind them.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

stupidme -

Heh heh. I loved your last sentence!

-CW

[TexasDem0]

Where have you been, Chris? The GOP punditry has been touting the McCain/Rice ticket as the undefeatable GOP juggernaut.

You state, "She's even got extremely solid foreign policy credentials (as measured by Republican voters)." Yes, but by anyone who has been paying attention, she"s grossly under qualified, in way over her head, was asleep at the switch prior to September 11th, is utterly incompetent, and unable to take a stand on principle against her husband, G.W., or Dick Cheney.

How exactly, does that make her a viable candidate for vice president, other than in the unseeing eyes of GOP voters who consistently vote against their own interests?

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

TexasDem0 -

Yeah, you're right. I thought this was an original idea, but then after I posted it I searched for "McCain Rice" and got lots of other blog postings.

And I agree, she should have been fired on September 12th.

But the real question is "Would McCain actually pick her?" And I just don't know the answer to that one.

On another subject, looks like Texas is going to be the center of a serious media circus for the next two weeks! My condolences...

-CW

[Thorn]

So (besides gender and race) she'd bring what to the ticket? National security to complement McCain's national security?

The whole point of a running mate is to complement the number-one slot. McCain will go with a conservative to calm down his base. Probably a Southerner with a record on economics that the base likes. And someone young.