My Primary Picks For Florida

My Primary Picks For Florida
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Ever onwards, into the fray, we return to the latest in a series of primary "picks" columns, this time heading down to Florida to examine the Republican race. I refuse to write any Democratic picks, since they're supposed to be in the penalty box for moving their primary up sooner than February 5th. So this week, it's GOP-only.

Which is probably a good thing, since my track record on the Republican side is a lot better than my total for Democrats. I seem to be able to be more objective on the Republicans, and more biased on the Democratic side, so make of that what you will.

My most recent picks (South Carolina Democrats) were at the front of my "State of the Blog" column last Friday. Once again, I only got one out of three right (sigh). While I correctly put Obama in first place, I got second and third place reversed. I must say, Obama's margin of victory in South Carolina was pretty astonishing, getting over double Hillary Clinton's share of the vote. Eight in ten African Americans voted for Obama in South Carolina, meaning the Clinton campaign appears to have made a tactical error in focusing on race in the final days. Whether it was a strategic error remains to be seen, but I would be willing to bet that Bill's going to be on a pretty short leash from now on... or at least until after Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday.

In any case, here are the new totals:

Total correct Democratic picks so far: 3 for 12.

Total correct Republican picks so far: 8 for 15.

Total overall correct picks: 11 for 27 -- 41%.

On to the Sunshine State!

Florida Republicans

First place -- John McCain

Second place -- Mitt Romney

Third place -- Rudy Giuliani

There's a tight race for first place in Florida, and a tight race for third. Now, Florida is a winner-take-all state when it comes to Republican delegates, so winning first (even by only a few votes) is significant here because second and third place get nothing for their efforts.

The race for the winner's circle is between Mitt Romney and the newly resurgent (pun intended) John McCain. The "Republican Establishment" still hasn't really decided which of these two it wants as a frontrunner, since neither one excites the right's ideologues very much. They are both flawed candidates in the eyes of the party, so they're in essence collectively scratching their heads trying to figure out which one they dislike the least.

But locally, John McCain has won the endorsement of the popular Republican governor and a respected Republican senator as well, which I am betting is going to tip the scales in his favor. Also, McCain's stance on immigration hurts him less in Florida than it does elsewhere, due to the large Republican Latino vote (mostly Miami Cubans). Romney and McCain have both seen their poll numbers skyrocket since their other victories on the campaign trail, and most polls are calling the race a statistical tie (one way or the other) the day before the voting actually begins. So this race truly could go either way. But I'm betting on John McCain to pull it out in the end.

The race for third is an interesting one as well. Rudy Giuliani has sunk over twenty million dollars into his bid for the Oval Office, and third place in Florida is likely going to be the best thing he's going to have to show for his effort. If I was a big-money backer of "America's Mayor," I think I'd want my money back right about now! Poor Rudy. And poor us -- Giuliani would have been enormous fun to run against in the general election. He would have been a piece of cake for just about any Democrat to beat -- since he doesn't just have "a skeleton or two" in the closet, he actually has to rent storage space for the boneyard of scandals he drags around with him.

While McCain and Romney's Florida poll numbers have climbed in the past few weeks, Giuliani and Mike Huckabee have both seen their numbers plummet. The only question is whose support has cratered more. Third place in this race is going to belong to whichever one desperately convinces enough voters to stick with him to the end. While I would normally favor Huckabee, I just feel so sorry for Rudy here that I'm going to have to call third place for him. Because, one way or another, Rudy's heading back to New York within the next few days. Which will give him plenty of time to keep up on the progress of Bernie Kerik's upcoming trial. Everyone wave "bye-bye" to Rudy!

[Sorry, I think my keyboard was inappropriately set to "extra-snarky" there. I think I've fixed the problem now... ahem.]

Anyway, those are my picks... what are yours?

[Previous states' picks:]

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

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