Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid just scored a political victory by losing a vote. That sounds counterintuitive, but it's true. By failing to bring the Wall Street reform bill written by Chris Dodd to the floor for debate, and by losing a cloture vote on the issue to Republican opposition, Reid has shown that the Democrats (and the White House) have learned a few lessons from the health reform debate. Because by refusing to back down, and refusing to "compromise" (read: water the bill down and add loopholes for Wall Street) with Republicans, Reid is showing real strength, and real leadership.
Harry Reid is from a gambling (or, if you're employed by the industry, "gaming") state. And he has just raised the stakes, because he thinks he's got a winning hand in this debate. The Washington Post just released a poll today showing that reforming Wall Street is wildly popular with the public at large (two-thirds are for it), which certainly helps Reid's position. But just because an issue (or a sub-issue) is popular with the public, it doesn't always win in Congress (see: public option). Sometimes politicians squander the issue's popularity, and drive away their own supporters by continually weakening and gutting the bill they're debating.
There's another sort of strategy for this situation, and it is precisely the strategy Reid and President Obama have taken -- refuse to give in to the lobbyists. Stand up for strong reform, and shout it from the mountaintops. Defy Republicans to obstruct the effort, and vow to exact a political price upon them for doing so. This is precisely what Reid just did.
Republicans, in this metaphorical card game, not only have a bad hand to play, but they were actually allowed to thumb through the deck and pick their own cards, and they still have no good cards to play.
Because Republicans tried to bluff. They tried to hinge their arguments for obstruction on "we want to make the bill stronger," when (of course) nothing could be further from the truth. What they really would like is to make a backroom deal with Chris Dodd, and water the bill down, far from the light of day. What they most assuredly do not want is for this bargaining to happen on the floor of the Senate, in the open, with everyone watching. If debate on the bill proceeds, then Republicans are free to offer amendments to strengthen the bill, if they so desire. Democrats would likely even support a few of these, if they truly did strengthen the bill. But any loophole-filled lobbyist-written amendments are simply not going to pass. Which terrifies Republicans, who don't really want a stronger bill to begin with.
The way to deal with this bluff is, so far, exactly what the Democrats have done. First, make lots of political hay decrying the obstructionism of the Republicans, painting them as being nothing more than Wall Street's handmaidens. Second, when challenged by Republicans to strengthen the bill, then actually strengthen the bill, and then dare Republicans to oppose it. Thirdly, don't just threaten to hold votes and force cloture (filibuster) votes, actually follow through and put the Republicans on the record voting with Wall Street, and against reform. Fourthly, make it obvious that this issue will be the number-one favorite for Democrats to run campaign commercials on, in the upcoming elections.
So far, Democrats have been doing all of these things, and actually doing a fairly good job of them. Instead of entering the bargaining from a position of "let's give away the store before we even begin talking" (see: health reform debate), Democrats are (for once!) throwing down gauntlet after gauntlet to Republicans -- "well, if you're complaining that the reforms aren't strong enough, then we will strengthen them!"
Republicans, it should be noted, are getting very, very nervous about their overall obstruct-everything strategy in this particular debate. They're scared. You can tell, because almost without exception, every Republican interviewed on television of late has admitted that "something's going to pass." Compare this to their stance during health reform, when they were confident nothing would get through. Republicans, in essence, are already admitting that they're going to lose this one, and that President Obama is going to score a major political victory, likely before Memorial Day.
Today's vote was a party-unity affair. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell got all 41 Republican senators to sign a letter, formalizing his filibuster bluff, a few weeks ago. He held them together today. But he is likely not going to be able to do so on subsequent votes. Republican unity is going to crack. And a trickle of Republican votes crossing the aisle to vote for Wall Street reform could become a flood, by the time the final vote is taken (after the House and Senate hammer out the final language in committee). There are two reasons for this: Republicans saw that story on the polls, too; and the only way Republicans can explain today's vote on the campaign trail is going to be: "we forced Democrats to strengthen the bill, so that we could then we could support it." It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the final vote on Wall Street reform win with 80 or 90 votes in the Senate, and a similar overwhelming majority in the House.
President Obama released a statement after the vote. It doesn't pull many punches. Here's the full text of it:
I am deeply disappointed that Senate Republicans voted in a block against allowing a public debate on Wall Street reform to begin. Some of these Senators may believe that this obstruction is a good political strategy, and others may see delay as an opportunity to take this debate behind closed doors, where financial industry lobbyists can water down reform or kill it altogether. But the American people can't afford that. A lack of consumer protections and a lack of accountability on Wall Street nearly brought our economy to its knees, and helped cause the pain that has left millions of Americans without jobs and without homes. The reform that both parties have been working on for a year would prevent a crisis like this from happening again, and I urge the Senate to get back to work and put the interests of the country ahead of party.
This shows Obama has also learned the lessons of the health reform battle: don't compromise early, fight for a strong bill instead, and don't let your opponents define the playing field. And do not back down.
Two footnotes to today's vote are the two Democrats who voted with the Republicans. The first one is a technicality, since Harry Reid switched his vote to "nay" when he saw he was going to lose. This is, as I said, a technicality which allows him to reintroduce the bill later (which he swears he's going to do, possibly as early as tomorrow -- which, conveniently, has scheduled the chairman of Goldman Sachs testifying before a committee hearing), and should in no way be seen as a lack of support on Reid's part.
The second Democrat who voted with the Republicans was Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who was trying to get a sweetheart deal inserted in the bill for his constituent Warren Buffett. You'll remember Senator Nelson from the health debate, for pulling the same maneuver to extract the "Cornhusker Kickback." This time, however, the Democratic leadership didn't blink, and refused to play ball with Nelson. Nelson will now find himself in a very untenable political position (as he did with the Cornhusker Kickback) and will likely end up sheepishly changing his vote to "yea" at some future time in this debate. Thus showing the power of transparency, and why it is good politics to bring these backroom deals out into the open.
As I said, today's vote, while seeming to be bad news (we'll see how the mainstream media spins this one...), is actually stunningly good news for Democrats everywhere. Because it shows that two of the "weakest links" in the health reform debate -- Harry Reid and President Obama -- are actually out in front, and doing a good job of leading, on Wall Street reform. They appear to be moving in lockstep, defiantly resisting calls to water the bill down. And they're also not exactly being shy about explaining their position -- to a public who already approves of what they're doing by a two-to-one margin.
If both Obama and Reid can keep this up, it will prove a political case many progressives and liberals were trying to get them to understand, last August. If you get out in front of strong reform that the public overwhelmingly approves of, not only will you draw some of your opposition over to your side eventually, but you also will boost the public's approval of what you are trying to accomplish. Many Lefties were absolutely disgusted at how the health reform battle played out, and with good reason. Sinking poll numbers for both Obama and Reid have driven that point home even further, ever since. Democrats appear to have learned this lesson, and are trying it a different way this time around.
And, I have to say, they are being led in these efforts admirably well by both President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Reid. This is going to lead to, eventually, a much better bill on the president's desk. Far fewer things will be "thrown under the bus" in this debate. Of course, no bill is perfect, and there may be disappointments along the way, but arguing from a position of strength means you will have to accept fewer compromises during the process. And that is good news, for this bill, for reforming Wall Street, for the American public, and for the Democrats in general and for Harry Reid and Barack Obama in particular.
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On Wall Street, we saw a breakdown of ethics and sound business practice. That is part of the problem. I do wonder if those companies have learned anything - or do they have a flat learning curve?
Whatever regulations are in place, they are only as good as the enforcement of them. I think those are three things to watch.
The GOP has a problem; and, the Democrats can make that worse vis a strong election campaign.
The GOP has no leaders and is intellectually and morally exhausted. The GWB Administration took a lot out of them.
The two parties are, by defintion, part of the system. Any reform, on any matter, will not satisfy many people. Bcause it is enacted by people who are part of the system and are trying to keep it going. It is the same problem that FDR had; it is the same problem that Leon Blum of the French Popular Front had. You have to reform the system and keep it going at the same time. That is difficult act. Not many have the wit and the wisdom to do it. We will see how far Obama is willing to go. FDR did not go nearly as far as some people wanted him to go. Like Obama, the opposition was bitter.
Ever had that dream where you suddenly realize you are in the library and all you have on is your underware? The Republicans in about one week.
My fear is that the GOP will sign onto this bill too soon, and the GOP Members will do the same thing they did since the Stimulus Bill, where they are now showing up at ribbon cutting ceremonies, touting their support for the Stimulus Bill where money is being spent in their districts. There may be a couple more weeks to pull their stunts in the Senate, before finally approving this Reform, and it will be the end of May before it's signed into law. The timing is perfect for the GOP to rally the voters in the fall, with the same misinformed message that they were responsible for "Stronger Wall St Reform" and saved America from future financial meltdowns as what we are still rebounding from. Senator Reid, it's now your turn to "move the goal posts", just as the GOP has done for almost a year and a half, add stronger language to this bill, close a majority of the loopholes that currently exist in it, and then let the GOP support it.
english, please. if you are going to use it, use it correctly!
I have no doubt they'll be at least successful enough to convince their base, since those guys believe anything Rush or Beck or Hannity tell them to believe. But who knows? Maybe the epic levels of Republicriminalism will finally convince a few people to listen to reality, rather than Conservapedia.
Their commitment to stand up to Wall Street and work on reform is admirable.
The argument that both parties accept donations may well be, but the party that is standing up to them and risking the loss is the one I am supporting and the Dems have truly shown they are willing to sacrifice to do the right thing and make an effort to offer some reform.
Some reform is better than none and none it what the GOP is offering.
The GOP is lying to the public again and saying they want transparency but they refuse to publicly debate the issue.
A Democracy is both parties debating and working for legislation that is beneficial to the American people.
If the GOP won't even show up to debate then they aren't true Americans and do not support a true Democracy.
No matter how many times the Dems reach across the aisle it doesn't seem to matter when the only GOP response is "no".
No relationship of any kind can work if one party won't come to the table, talk, debate, and solve the issues.
The GOP has divorced itself from America and the Democratic process since they refuse to draft their own plans and still take a taxpayer salary.
this is a no win for the Repubs....and looking at the numbers nobody's believing the nonsense that this bill is some kind of bailout. The public wants to see some Wall Street hinny kicked and all the Repubs are doing is their "just say no" shtick..
like was said yesterday...the GOP would love to get into a back room and waterdown ....why do you think they don't want a floor debate.