The Bradley Effect v. The Obama Effect

If you're sick of politics, and don't want to read another single thing about it before Election Day, then you should just skip this column. I recommend taking Opus' advice in this situation, personally.

For the rest of us wonks, before I get to examining Bradley v. Obama, today I'd like to remind everyone that August polls don't mean a whole lot. I'd be saying that no matter who was ahead, mind you. Because I think we all need a reminder that not everyone is like us (quick test: do you know who Mark Penn is? Or David Axelrod?).

Because if you really look at the polls, you'll soon notice that about a third of America just isn't paying all that much attention.

This is fairly normal, it should be pointed out. And lots of these people will actually vote this November. Call them the great mass of Undecideds.

This, to the average wonk, is mind-blowing. After following every nuance of one of the longest campaigns in history, it may be hard to accept that a lot of people, for whatever reason, just haven't made up their minds between Obama and McCain yet. A recent CBS poll [PDF], just as an example (other polls show the same thing), shows that when asked their opinion of the candidates, about a third answered "undecided" or "haven't heard" for both Barack Obama (30%) and John McCain (33%). Of those that preferred either Obama or McCain when asked who they'd vote for, 27% of Obama voters and 31% of McCain voters said that it was "too early to say their mind was made up" about voting for their preferred candidate.

Digging even deeper into the numbers, when people with a preferred candidate were asked "compared to the other candidate, do you like yours (a great deal better / somewhat better / a little better), and then only asking voters who answered "somewhat" or "a little" whether their minds were made up (a total of 44% of Obama voters, and 50% of McCain voters), the numbers were almost identical. Of the weak voters for Obama, 46% had their mind made up, 52% said it was too early to say. Of McCain's weak voters, 46% had made up their minds, 54% had not.

So even among Americans willing to answer a pollster's questions over the phone, somewhere around a third haven't really made up their minds who to vote for, one way or another. Something for all of us to remember. When three people get together, statistically, one of them hasn't decided how to vote. So which one of your two best friends is still wavering?

Heh. Actually, statistics don't quite work that way, but I couldn't resist.

But there are two other factors in this race that are unknown (and, to a large degree, unknowable) and they point in opposite directions, so they may even cancel each other out to some degree (meaning that, even after the election, it may still be impossible to accurately quantify these). The first of these is the infamous Bradley Effect. Will Obama's white voter support in the polls be higher than his actual support on Election Day? Will this be a regional factor, or a nationwide factor? And how big a factor is it? All unanswerable questions now, and possibly ever.

The other factor works in Obama's favor, but since it is such a unique phenomenon it too may be impossible to predict before the election. How overwhelming is Obama's youth support going to be? How many of them will actually turn out to vote? How many of them have no landlines, and are hence being woefully undercounted in the polls (which usually don't call cell phones)? Will "The Obama Effect" be a tidalwave of new votes, or will it fizzle as it has almost every time in the past? Impossible to know at this point.

Nate Silver, who created FiveThrityEight.com, tries to make some sense of the youth vote numbers in a piece he wrote for the New York Post. He, quite correctly, points out that there have been many campaigns which optimistically predicted that young folks would turn out in droves in the past -- most of whom lost. However, this may finally be "the year" for young people to stun the polling community. Anecdotal reports from just about everywhere point to an energized youth vote that is actually excited about a candidate this time around. Obama's strength in the caucuses and primaries were one place this was made apparent. And in a general election, this might even be more pronounced.

Silver ends on an upbeat note for Obama:

Barack Obama has an advantage that Howard Dean and George McGovern didn't have -- the partisan ecology is so favorable to the Democrats that he can win the election even without turning out young voters. But they are his ace in the hole. If he can get them to turn out in something resembling the proportion that older voters do, his election becomes a near certainty.

At least, with young voters, exit polls will be able to tell if there's a sea-change in their voting patterns. So maybe next time around, pollsters will be more accurate. But until another black man runs for the Oval Office, the Bradley Effect question may be still unknowable even after the 2008 election.

But again, I caution everyone that even though I'm an avid poll-watcher myself (as I suspect many of you are), it is still only August. The conventions haven't even happened yet. Obama will likely get a bump in the polls after Denver, but it may be followed almost immediately after by a bump for McCain, after the Republican convention. September's polls will show a general firming-up of the numbers for both, but with so many Undecideds out there it could go one way or another.

Until then, maybe we should all take Opus' advice....

 

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

 

Comments

[AnAmericaninLondon]

Good post. Having lived through the Bradley effect in his race for California Governor; I have been more than paranoid about Obama losing the election if he is not 5 or more points up in individual states polling just prior to election day.
But I can also make the case for 'The Bradley Effect' is already being factored into Obama's numbers because the generic polling gives the Dems a 50-35 lead over the Repubs and Obama's lead over McCain ia approximately equal to the 5 point 'Bradley effect' already being factored.
The other positive for Obama is the economy is not getting better prior to election day and could be perceived as much worse so if Obama paints McCain as Bush 3 and shows how he is as corrupt as the Repubs and has a positive program for the electors; he should win the election in an electoral landslide even if he theoretically could lose the popular vote-which I doubt.
Of course; all my European friends suggest to never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate especially after Bush was elected to a second term which they can't understand at all.
But I tell them the American people realize the Iraq War is no longer being supported by the electorate and the economy is the primary issue plus McCain isnt an incumbent President running for a second term. I am optimistic Obama will win and the Dems having 60 Senators which is necessary to change the country's direction.

[Pammy1151]

I live in Florida and while waiting in line to get Obama tickets for an event I began talking to a woman in her 60's who told me she was married to a die-hard Republican. She also told me that out of all of her friends there were only 5 that were Obama fans. Now the real information. She also said that they don't talk about the fact that they are voting for Obama. Hmmm let's hope there are many many more like that here in the historical RED state. We are hoping to make it a BLUE state this time.

Obama has a real machine going on here around the state. Yes, lots of young people.

[foxbat]

Nice article Chris. Back in the 80s I was a poll/precinct judge on a college campus with over 35,000 students. There were probably 250 students that came out to the campus polling location. Completely demoralizing. I think that there's a difference in this election that that there hasn't been with previous elections. Obama has a much more effective ground game than many candidates have had in the last 50 years. The fact that he's going after the younger vote on THEIR TERMS ... Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and the Internet will pay off for him. It makes it much easier for them to stay engaged and in touch with his campaign than in the past when there was very little continued connection for a youngster who voted in the primary only to fade out by the GE.

As jeg mentioned, I too wonder about a reverse-Bradley effect that might cancel out the Bradley effect, if a Bradley effect is seen. There are many "quiet" Obama supporters. Some are Republicans who, like many, are just ready for ANY change. In light of the sometimes bare-naked vitriol coming from some, not all, folks under the PUMA guise, many more moderate Obama supportes are just saying nothing or "I don't know yet" to avoid the usually nasty, unproductive exchanges about stolen elections, caucases, etc. that don't help with the GE goal of a Democratic victory. As you stated, exit polls will tell.

[LizM]

You and jeg make some very interesting points which prove to me that the final leg of this campaign and general election are going to be different in the sense that all of the conventional wisdom can pretty much be thrown out the window...not least of which is the VP effect. This time around, the VP choice - on both sides - has the potential to be absolutely critical and a determining factor in the outcome.

[Doofus]

Is the Bradley Effect real? Is 85% of the electorate white? We'll just have to see.

What is the Obama Effect exactly?
Maybe that McCain is so bad, Obama has to win.

Enough with the Repos already!

[Doofus]

It is true that primary campaigns are radically different than the general
election, lest we forget. A lot of primary wannabees really fragment the
vote, at least at the beginning. This year, though, the race was winnowed
down to the final 2 fairly quickly. Democrats at least have had an opportunity
to come to grips with Obama, which ought to work well in November.

When you reach a certain age, you can appreciate that much of American
culture is about presidential politics, the Big Contest that happens every
four years. Wired into US history going back 200 years or so. Obviously
even the Canadians are enthralled, some anyway. It's a grueling marathon
for all concerned, and not always all that interesting either. Are we having fun yet?

[jeffhussein]

Chris: What a drag you are! For that matter, what a drag most of this " coverage" has become. Our campaign seasons are virtually ENDLESS. I think many people are not really paying alot of attention right now. Labor Day's polls will give us all a much better idea of how the GE will turn out. Barring any huge game-changing event, I think Obama wins handily. Cross your fingers.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

jeffhussein -

Yeah, well, be careful what you wish for. We had a "parliamen­tary-type" election here in California, due to a recall. The entire election season, from when it was announced to when we voted, was something like two months long. That's it. Two months. And you know what? Name recognition won the day... and we got Arnie Schwarzenegger as our governor.

Sigh.

Look on the bright side -- less than 100 days, now...

-CW

[WilliePilgrim]

This is eerily reminscent of a post I recall reading just before George part d'uh got elected again. I really hope it's right this time but motivating the young seems to be an issue that plays well on TV and so we get a lot of coverage of it, but in reality, man, they're as dumb as most of us were...and are. Never the less, finger crossed, into the fray.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

WilliePilgrim -

I'm old enough that I've actually lost count of how many times I've heard "the youth vote is going to give us a landslide!" in presidential elections.

But, I have to say, with the possible exception of Anderson or maybe Gary Hart (before he got caught), this is the most downright enthusiastic I've seen the youth support for any candidate, so I'm cautiously optimistic too.

-CW

[kevinem2]

Chris- I can't help but wonder, how can ANY sentient person who is planning to actually VOTE in November still be undecided at this point. If I was a teacher with a class of fifth graders assigned to follow the campaigns and then "pretend" vote, I'm confident Obama would win in a landslide. There are so many clips out there of McCain campaigning in "zombie" mode, how could any adult with an IQ over tap water vote for him? As a concerned Canadian, I really despair over the average American's intelligence.

[LizM]

Yeah, I know what you mean...and, of course, concerned Canadians surely have a wealth of their own experience suffering through the consequences of the average voter's intelligence. I can say that because I'm one of them. :-)

[kevinem2]

Are you talking federally or provincially? I'm from B.C., and I'll leave my preferences out for now...

[jeg]

Most people just aren't paying attention. The numbers between now and Labor Day are basically "noise". Once the conventions are over, and the first debate is held, that's when the polls will actually start showing useful information.

I also predict that the "reverse bradley effect" will be an incredibly overused term in the near future. I personally have spoken to a number of people who will probably vote for Sen. Obama, but don't actually want to admit it in public. Some are Hillary supporters, some are die-hard Republicans tired of the Republican party, and more than one said "I don't want to vote for Obama because he's black-- but I just can't vote for John McCain".

That also may account for a large number of the undecided voters.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

jeg -

I was going to answer kevenem2, but then realized you had already said what I was going to say: an astounding amount of the public just isn't paying ANY attention at all to the race, even though they will actually turn out to vote (civic duty and all that). I also agree about the first debate.

But your comments on a "reverse Bradley effect" is truly astonishing, as it is the first I've heard of this sort of thing. Also a very hard thing to quantify in polls, I would guess, if not impossible. Like I said, if what you say is even slightly widespread, it could make for an interesting election night.

-CW