California voters face a clash between corporate cash vs. progressive populism. Nothing less than the biggest statehouse, the biggest Senate seat, and the future presidency of America is at stake here in the Golden State.
Corporate cash vs. progressive populism
Can corporate cash always beat progressive populism? Absolutely not - but it will be spent at historic levels over the next five months. Corporate cash funded the nominations of Meg Whitman (R-eBay) for governor and Carly Fiorina (R-Hewlett Packard) for senator. http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/gov/59.htm
But, corporate cash lost to progressive populists who defeated Prop 16 (utility PG&E spent $45 million to LOSE a public power grab http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-california-prop16-20100610,0,6055763.story) and Prop 17 (Mercury Insurance spent over $15 million to LOSE a rate hike measure http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0610-prop17-20100610,0,6749863.story)
One element from NO on 16 and 17 - the money is the message - for good and for ill. When a candidate or a company brandishes wealth during a recession, big spenders risk voter backlash.
Whitman vs. Brown for Governor
Republican and Independent women are excited about Meg Whitman -- she beat men to rise to the top of eBay corporation and she beat a well-known conservative in Steve Poizner to win the nomination. She spent over $80 million -- 70 dollars per vote -- and thus far has outspent Jerry Brown 200 to 1. Whitman did move to the far right on immigration which will hurt her with Latinos and moderates in the general. Jerry Brown is a party of one more like Arnold Schwarzenegger (who says he's not endorsing) so don't expect to pigeonhole him. He was a good mayor, a law and order leader with a military school in liberal Oakland -- and has been an activist Attorney General.
Whitman wants to make Brown out to have been a big spender but older voters -- the stars of midterm elections -- remember the blue Plymouth instead of the Reagan town car, the mattress on the floor instead of the governor's mansion, and his reputation as a cheapskate. Brown flubbed with his Goebbels gaffe -- but some of Whitman's people responded in kind attacking him as the real minister of propaganda -- hopefully they will all stop the Nazi references! Really, people, I can think of 6 million reasons why this Nazi analogy has to stop. Meg Whitman will be on air nonstop talking at voters but they can't see her debate till October 11th -- the earliest date she OKed -- when absentee ballots are already out for early voting. I expect that to change, as voters demand more interactivity and accountability.
Fiorina vs. Boxer for Senator
Carly Fiorina has her HP golden Parachute to fund a race against Barbara Boxer. She won the Palin primary against tea party favorite Chuck DeVore, who pushed her to the far right on immigration. Fiorina is anti gay marriage in a gay rights state, pro life in a pro choice state, and won't fund abortions under any circumstances including rape and incest.
Fiorina began badly with her snarky Boxer hairstyle/Whitman on Hannity comments. She apologized to Whitman -- not Boxer -- and has now got to make up lost ground with voters who wonder why the head of a tech company can't handle a hot mike, and with women voters who don't want her mean girls cattiness to reflect upon us.
But it's not about the hair or the Hannity -- it's about the jobs. Boxer will defend the Recovery Act aid to California, explain how jobs investments have helped make progress in people's lives, and campaign hard in the Central Valley where swing voters thrive. Fiorina will have to explain why she was outsourcing jobs as CEO of HP before she was fired by the board.
Boxer has long championed our California coast. For a while, political reporters would tell me "so what? Environmental issues don't win independent voters" but now that BP has spewed ecological, economic, and emotional disaster in the gulf coast, Boxer's longtime stance against drilling off the California coast has the edge, especially along the Santa Barbara coastline where Tranquillion Ridge has been a target for drilling. We'll see if Palin returns to California chanting "drill baby drill" with Fiorina anytime soon.
GOP vs. Obama for President
Long the ATM and brain trust of national politics, California is always host to national Democratic and Republican all-stars. This year, the stakes are enormous: we are looking at a battle for the direction of California and the 2012 Presidential race. President Obama has been out here twice for Barbara Boxer and could return if need be.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney helped Meg Whitman and Sarah Palin helped Carly Fiorina. If Whitman or Fiorina should happen to win -- and I concede neither -- Romney or Palin would have a feather in their cap and a potential rival or slatemate for 2012, since victory in America's largest state would instantly catapult Whitman or Fiorina into the GOP VP sweepstakes. But we are a long way from there... Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer still lead in the polls.
What does all this mean for the November elections?
California is a blue state but we need a strong grass roots effort to win. Why? The June turnout was quite low according to our field poll http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/jtf/JTF_June2010PrimaryJTF.pdf and will remain so unless voters have a compelling reason to come out. What Democrats need is to build on the No on Prop 16 and 17 victories and engage the voters.
Democrats must make the election a choice between which candidates help us achieve the California dream and open doors of opportunity and prosperity to all, and which will insist on corporatist policies that merely trickle down to Main Street. We need an interactive debate on jobs, healthcare, education, immigration, water, land use, and civil rights. Our standard bearers must be clear in their policies and their politics so that voters can cut through the multi-million dollar ad clutter.
I don't think the answers will be on the air -- I think they'll be on the ground, when people go door to door and look eyeball to eyeball with voters to make the case for a better California. This will require a cultural change in Democratic politics -- the admen (and yes they're mostly men) will want their slick mailers and TV spots (and 15-18% consulting fees) to carry the day - so the progressive populists have to fight for every inch of ground intend to cover within the Democratic party and within the State of California.
Follow Christine Pelosi on Twitter: www.twitter.com/sfpelosi
"Primary victories by Carly Fiorina in California and Sharron Angle in Nevada bolstered a growing national narrative that Republican candidates are lightweights, or too outside the mainstream, to survive in the fall, and that could harm even top tier Republicans."
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/06/republicans-get-real-about-their-prospects-for-recapturing-the-senate-in-2010.php
Hows that ''progressive'' thing turning out Christine?
Go to these places to find out.
www.rollcall.com
www.opensecrets.org The Center for Responsive Politics.
Read and learn about prop. 13 then return to the adult table for conversation. I doubt most readers get beyond this statement of yours before scrolling down to the next reply.
I'm down with Brown '10 !
Boxer = no change
Brown = poor business and economic leadership credentials
Fiorina = substantial business and economic and leadership credentials (despite the DNC propagated false indignation over "hairgate" & lies about her time at HP).
Whitman = substantial business and economic and leadership credentials (despite what the DNC will try to come up with).
Personal demonization of these talented and capable women will be the only political strategy for the left to maintain their continued destructive political power. However, it will backfire and Fiorina and Whitman will win in a landslide..
too funny!
Even if she hadn't made herself a trivial ill mannered JOKE concerning Boxer's appearance.
Queen Meg will be tougher to beat, but she's also anti-gay, and was shoved to the radical Right on Immigration. The FURY of Latin@s voting after AZ's SB1070 will remove most Republicans in AZ, NM, NV, CO, CA, and TX.
I'd have Boxer and Brown make several political goals for CA, then pan to two BIG PURSES, that open and say, "wah,wah,wah" and a plume of money shoots out of them.
Money Can't Buy You GOV.
How many people understand what might be the repercussions from the new open primary system? That needed a YES vote. How many people understood what might have been the benefits of proposition 15, (which also needed a YES) not that the corporatist Supreme Court would have allowed any significant changes to continue there had it been voted in.
Jerry Brown is an outstanding fiscal conservative, and if anyone knows how or has the guts to cut spending (while being mindful of the less fortunate) it is he. Barbara Boxer is an outstandingly consistent and clean politician, clearly a proud liberal. She is not in the job for the money.
Beyond that, however, CA is the teacher in one of the most teachable moments the world has ever witnessed: getting off dependency on fossil fuels, dealing with climate change, unprecedented belt tightening, ending the war on drugs, are among many California issues that are also of urgent importance to America and the world.
people there are " voting with their feet--by leaving "
Rove, Atwater, Hannity, Beck, Limbaugh...They have proven over and over again that facts are unnecessary when crafting your message, only the proper buzz words, bias and xenophobia are needed for their low info base.
What a "progressive" mess! Your grass-roots activism simply feeds the cycle of dysfunction. Until we have a state Constitution that holds our "representatives" accountable for the Democrat legacy of debt, started by Bush, compounded with even more entitlements and no reform of existing ones, and business-crushing taxes and regulation, we're headed down the same road as Greece and Western Europe.
How does your "grass roots populism" get our state back on track?
http://theconservativeforum.com/JuneSpeaker.html
Maybe you can sneak in a word edgewise to your Democrat leadership about what's really going on out here, and get government apparatchiks out of the finance business and over-regulating and over-taxing the business community so we're allowed to get back to work and earn our way out of this mess!