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The Drone, the Secretary and the Seven Dwarfs

Posted: 12/23/11 10:00 AM ET

Finder's Keepers, Losers Weepers. ~ A child's saying

I hope Secretary of State Clinton is not too disappointed. If she'd asked me I could have told her how it was going to come out. Indeed, had someone reminded her of Qatar, she wouldn't have even bothered to ask. The Qatar incident goes back to the mid-1980s and explains why Iran's answer should have come as no surprise.

In 1985, a year when the United States was supporting the Afghan rebels led by Osama bin Laden instead of bombing them, the United States supplied the rebels with a bunch of Stinger missiles to use against the Soviet forces who were at that time engaged in the same kind of operation in Afghanistan in which the United States is now engaged. In 1987 some of those missiles ended up in Iran. There were conflicting reports as to whether the Iranians bought them from the Afghan rebels who no longer needed them or whether the Iranians captured them in a cross border skirmish with Afghan forces. How they were obtained is irrelevant. Once Iran had them it could not get them to work. Accordingly Iran put the Stingers on Craig's list and in 1988 they were purchased by the sheikdom of Qatar.

Qatar is not a very big country so a logical question is why did it need Stinger missiles? The answer is it needed them in order to defend itself from Bahrain. That is because in 1987 Bahrain bought 70 Stinger missiles from the United States to defend itself against Iran, a country that had been secretly armed by the Reagan administration during the Iran-Iraq war. Qatar was afraid that some day Bahrain might forget that the missiles it bought were to be used against Iran and might use them against Qatar. Qatar thought if it had Stingers they would help Bahrain remember against whom it was supposed to use the Stingers it had acquired and not accidentally use them against Qatar. (The Obama administration is about to decide whether to sell another $53 million in arms to Bahrain, a country ruled by a brutal despot who makes up for his shortcomings by give the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet a home. To date Qatar has not asked for an offsetting gift from the U.S.)

In March 1988 Qatar had a really neat parade and one of the things the parade announcer told folks was that a missile that was in the parade was a Stinger missile. The purchase of Stinger missiles was then illegal under U.S. law (unless the U.S. was the vendor) and the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern and South Asian affairs told the Crown Prince of Qatar some months later that the United States wanted immediate access to the Stingers to see where they came from and wanted them back. Qatar demurred and as far as this writer knows, Qatar still has the Stingers. All of which is simply leading up to the latest kerfuffle over something Iran has that the United States wants.

In early December a stealth reconnaissance drone known as the "Bat-winged RQ-170 Sentinel" landed in Iran. To the outside observer it is not known whether it crashed or was hijacked by Iranians. The administration has asked Iran to return the drone which is not much different from telling Qatar to return the Stinger missiles it bought on the open market. Some of the seven dwarfs seeking the Republican presidential nomination think it was silly to ask for the return of the drone. During a Fox News Republican debate Mr. Romney scoffed at what he called "Foreign policy based on 'pretty please.' You have to be kidding." (He probably was unaware that that was what Mr. Reagan did when he learned Qatar had Stingers.)

Rick Perry also thought asking for them back was dumb. Of course his proposal was even dumber. He suggested destroying or capturing the drone in order to prevent Iran from obtaining sensitive information. He didn't say how that was to be accomplished but he was probably contemplating a raid similar to the one that resulted in Osama bin Laden's death. The dumbest cluck of all, to no one's surprise, came from Dick Cheney whose profound wisdom resulted in more than 100,000 Iraqis killed in the last 10 years, more than 4,000 U.S military persons killed and more than 20,000 grievously wounded U.S. military persons and a highly unstable country. If that doesn't establish his credentials as a great thinker it's hard to know what would. He thinks that the fact that the drone was engaged in hostile activity over Iran's sovereign territory is no reason for Iran to be churlish when asked to return it and suggested conducting an airstrike over Iran to destroy the drone. That would presumably not offend the Iranians who could easily have avoided such an airstrike by simply being polite and returning the drone to its rightful owners.

Since none of the proposals to retrieve the drone had a chance of success, it's a good thing that the Secretary chose to simply request the return of the drone. The request did not start a war.

Christopher Brauchli can be emailed at brauchli.56@post.harvard.edu. For political commentary see his web page at http://humanraceandothersports.com

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fireslayer
12:32 PM on 12/25/2011
Certainly asking for them is superior to acts of war.

Like the great American existentialist, Blind Willie McTell wrote- "when you lose, learn to lose."
05:58 PM on 12/23/2011
Know when to hold them, know when to fold them. Count your losses and get out.
01:32 PM on 12/25/2011
Don't worry, all those new US bases on the Iraqi/Iranian border full of "contractors" will do our dirty deeds.
jhNY
Mercy.
03:11 PM on 12/23/2011
Nicely put, and gently too, given what you might have said. fanned.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Pearce banned
Never let them tell you it can't be done.
01:39 PM on 12/23/2011
One of the hardest things for a person with power to do is to deal with a situation where they know they are going to get hammered over something that happened that they had no control over, know they have things they can do that have a very faint possibility of stopping that hammering from happening, but almost certainly make things worse. It takes strength of character to not give the order to do something, anything, but instead do the right thing and take the hits.

For all that Obama has, and has not, done that opens up the question of does he have the character that one wants in a US President, his decision on this matter shows that he does. And the reactions of Newt, Rick etc have shown the exact opposite.
06:13 PM on 12/23/2011
"And the reactions of Newt, Rick etc have shown the exact opposite."

Not necessarily. I am no fan of Newt or Perry, but what they say they would do in an election campaign is hardly a good guide to what they would do in office. As evidence of this, just look at Obama. There were a lot of things about the war on terror that he was supposedly going to change when he got into office. Hasn't happened, a fact that he gets ripped for regularly on this site by some of his more lefty supporters.
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09:49 AM on 12/26/2011
As he should.
12:19 PM on 12/23/2011
Maybe you’all heard of the RSA hacking that happened this year. Well guess what- Military-band GPS (M-code) is protected against spoofing by the RSA cipher. Can we start to connect the dots. The RQ -170 was guided down by Russian equipment. The aircraft’s presence was detected by peripheral installations that are part of the S300 antiaircraft system, and it was forced to land at a base in the desert region of Tabas, some 250km from the frontier with Afghanistan. Relations between Iran’s military industrial system, linked to the Guardians of the Revolution, or Pasdaran, and Russia’s GRU make it probable that Iran will share the drone’s secrets with the Russians. Did the Chinese or the Russian hack us this spring and summer.

It isn't well-known that M-code uses RSA, but it isn't exactly a secret either, so I'm just surprised that apparently I'm the only person alive openly wondering about the relation of RSA integrity to the continuing claims of military GPS spoofing by Iran &/or Russia.
M-code was designed for an improved key distribution system, so they can ultimately recover integrity of GPS guidance so long as the keys were stolen and not compromised through advancements in factoring techniques.
My 2© cents – gatoMalo_at_uscyberlabs_dot_com
http://USCyberLabs.com/blog/
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Wozzeck
Pearl Bay, Australia
02:54 PM on 12/23/2011
Iran doesn't have the Russian S-300. It claims to have a superior system produced in Iran:
http://rt.com/news/iran-air-defense-system-015/
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02:16 AM on 12/24/2011
Actually, Iran does have at least one complete S-300 system that it got on the arms black market. Since then Iran has cloned it and made multiple copies. This is probably the basis for the Bavar-373

Note also that with the deployment of the S-400 systems and the S-500 prototypes in Russia, there are lots of surplus S-300 systems floating around on the arms black market.

Iranian and Chinese engineers currently do not have access to the S-400 and S-500 systems so they are independently and possibly also working together to improve the S-300 systems to be the equivalent to the S-500 system.