McCain's Veepstakes Dilemma

GOP nominee must decide which void his running mate should fill.

The "veepstakes" talk has begun to heat up in earnest now that both parties' presumptive nominees for president have been picked. While pundits focus their short attention spans on the current discussion of "Will Obama pick Hillary Clinton?" (the easy/smart/obvious answer is an emphatic "no"), the McCain veep stakes are more intriguing.

First, a quick lesson we'll call Veepstakes 101.

The question in deciding whom to pick for your vice-presidential running mate basically boils down to two things. 1) Geographic benefit. This means selecting a candidate who will more than likely bring an important state or region into your "win" column than if you did not pick this person as your running mate. 2) Filling a void (real or perceived). The prime example of this was when George Herbert Walker Bush (that's the old man to you non-politicos) picked Dan Quayle to be his running mate. Bush must have selected Quayle on the advice of old pal Dick Cheney because his campaign wasn't doing well in the all-important "knucklehead" demographic. Some say it didn't matter. I say, "But what if all the knuckleheads had not voted because Quayle was on the ticket?"

Some pundits will argue that none of this matters at all; that voters don't vote based on who the Veep nominee is. I say, "Okay, maybe they were stupid when they voted Bush/Quayle because Quayle was on the ticket, but four years later they were even dumber when they elected Bill Clinton, a second-rate governor from a third-rate state."

And you can't argue with this: Had Al Gore picked ANYONE to be his running mate from the state of Florida in 2000, we would be calling him President Gore. I mean, come on, the mayor of Titusville probably could have added the extra couple of hundred votes to the Florida popular vote count, thus safely delivering Florida and the presidency to Al Gore.

Back to McCain. McCain doesn't have any real problems with regard to experience. He's a war hero and he's got a lot of experience (along with his 99 coworkers) screwing things up as a member of the United States Senate. I can also tell you from several intimate meetings I have had with McCain that he is more of a "compassionate conservative" than George W. Bush ever dreamed of being. When he talks about our military veterans, or preserving our environment for future generations, or the need to take care of a pregnant 15-year-old girl illegally crossing our border in 100-degree heat because it is the right thing to do -- he is compassionate and sincere.

What McCain doesn't have -- despite a lifetime 82% American Conservative Union rating -- is the support of those "conservatives" who think they own the definition of what a "conservative" is. We'll skip commenting on why these people are so threatened by McCain and get right to the meat of the issue: how to get these pea-brained Republicans to enthusiastically support John McCain.

Unfortunately for McCain, it is not as simple as it looks.

Some "experts" have speculated he might pick Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Now don't go thinking Charlie is a bible-thumping conservative. He's about as far from being a conservative as you can go in the Republican Party without being thrown out of the Republican Party. No, Charlie Crist brings a nice fake tan, warm smile, and Florida's 27 Electoral College votes. Those are all the pluses on Charlie. On the other hand, Charlie Crist has more unchecked baggage than a bankrupt airline. The national media would have a field day digging up dirt on this guy. And more importantly, if McCain picks Charlie Crist because it needs him to win Florida, McCain's campaign is in more trouble than a Baptist preacher at a police raid of an adult video store. Florida is a must-win state for McCain, and he should do well here (probably even better) without Charlie on the ticket. Florida is full of veterans, old people and Jewish voters from the Northeast. These are all demographics Barack Obama has done poorly with in the primaries. McCain should eat Obama's lunch in Florida sans Charlie Crist.

Or McCain might pick someone to fill a void in an area he is perceived as being weak. Someone like Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour comes to mind. He's been a great governor. After hurricane Katrina, when the Democrats in Louisiana stood around pointing fingers at each other and wondering why they didn't use the 1,127 parked school buses to evacuate poor people with no cars from New Orleans, Governor Barbour got to work to clean up the mess in his state. As governor, he's fought for lower taxes, individual rights, and "right-to-life" issues -- all red meat stuff self-defining conservatives say is necessary to be a true conservative. Barbour also brings a lot of experience schmoozing the Washington establishment (an area where McCain is arguably weak). Barbour would certainly fill a void with the inside-the-Beltway crowd. He is the former head of the Republican National Committee, is a former lobbyist, and he has one of the most extensive Rolodex's in GOP circles. But that strength of Barbour's is also his weakness. The Obama campaign would paint him as another fixture of the Washington establishment. Barbour also has a couple of incidents in his background that a less-than-ethical political campaign consultant would use to paint him as a racist. As I understand them, they are very insignificant and certainly don't make Barbour a racist. But it may be enough to keep him from consideration.

On the other hand, winning political campaigns is about pointing out differences and using "wedge" issues to divide voters. Race is a difference and a wedge issue. So maybe McCain picks Barbour and lets the media bring up these very minor and forgivable moments. It would be just enough to remind many voters that Obama is black and to rally many white voters who are threatened by that fact to vote for McCain.

But I doubt it. I think McCain will run a first-class campaign on the issues.

And he'll lose.

Chris Ingram is the president and founder of 411 Communications a corporate and political communications firm, and publisher of www.IrreverentView.com. Ingram is a frequent pundit on Fox News and CNN, and has written opinion columns for the Washington Times, UPI, Frontpage Florida, and National Review online. E-mail him at: [e-mail].

Click here for bio.

Comments

[GarthR]

Katherine Harris, "hero" of the Florida recount, would be the perfect choice for McCain. She could deliver Florida (again) and appeal to the 23% that still think Bush is doing a great job. She would bring in all the self-destructive Hillary voters. She is also wealthy and willing to self-finance her campaigns. Plus, they would look great together...

[IrreverentView]

Garth, I certainly hope your comment is sarcastic. Having worked for Katherine Harris, I can tell you she would be a disaster. She might appeal to half of the 23% whacked out GOPers who still support W, but not much more than that. She is also not as wealthy as she leads people to think. While she may say she is willing to self-finance, actually having the money is a different story. She never had her own $10M to give her campaign. Most of her money is actually not hers. Her "inheritance" is mostly her mothers.

[wbramh]

Being number two on a ticket that's going to get creamed probably limits the serious contenders to also-rans and retirees and since McCain needs somebody younger on the ticket, his running mate will be somebody who doesn't mind losing, since they're never going anywhere but down, anyway.
Maybe that's a Huckabee - or even Giuliani. Where is Dan Quayle now that his Party desperately needs him?

[IrreverentView]

I wouldn't discount McCain.

[Samson1]

I think the best vp for McCain would be Kay Bailey Hutchinson. She is a solid conservative and she gives him an added attraction for disgruntled Clinton women. This is particularly effective if Obama chooses someone who is not attractive to the Clinton supporters.

[Johnnn]

Except that Texas is solid Republican, and Hutchinson doesn't have the appeal of Liz Dole. Hutchinson was the first name Republicans mentioned when mulling over the possibility of a woman on the ticket, but they can do better.

[IrreverentView]

I agree. Hutchison is not the answer. Picking her just because she is a woman would be a mistake. If McCain picks a woman, she needs to bring more to the table.

[HollywoodBill]

McCain has the incredible luxury of selecting his running mate after Obama. Any perceived weakness in the selection like the absence of a woman and McCain can bet the farm. He about has to.

Won't be a Southerner like Barbour. The GOP has enough problems being thought of as the political party from Deliverance without adding another member of the HeeHaw cast to the ticket. Crist has way too much baggage. Been proven that the snake handlers won't vote for Mitt Romney. And the moderate wing wants no part of the Revival Tent Republicans. Bobby Jindal, who represents the snake handling, moralizing busybody brigade of social conservatives is never going to be anything but a regional candidate. He has no appeal outside of the Bible Belt.

Pawlenty? Safe and doesn't upstage McCain. Might put MN into play. Maybe. Elizabeth Dole? Yeah, two social security recipients on the ticket. Sarah Palin, Alaska's Governor has the no experience issue. While photogenic, she just gave birth to her 5th child who happens to have Downs Syndrome. Special needs and being VeeP? Not likely.

McCain is going to have to think outside the box. Can't help but think that if Obama puts someone like Webb or Biden on the ticket, McCain is going to go after the disillusioned Clinton voters. Maybe he'll do a Dick Cheney. Carly Fiorina? That'll change the dynamics of the election fast.

[wbramh]

Personally, I'd like him to pick Carly Fiorina.
It would win Senator Obama his most lop-sided voting block.
100% of Hewlitt Packard's employees.

[IrreverentView]

The media would devour Fiorina.

[Indubio]

Ingram's mistaken assumption is that McCain has strengths...In fact, I'm not sure he has many any more: He can't read a teleprompter or speak publicly, he has a poor memory, he's a Republican, he married his policies to the detested Bush, he has major character flaws (ie womanizing), he flip flops on major issues, he's pro war, he's distrusted by his party's core, doesn't have the full support of fellow GOP politicians, doesn't have a lot of money, he's alienated Hispanics by his flip flop on immigration reform, has close ties to too many DC lobbyists; even his wife has negatives (arrogance and opportunism). To suggest that McCain can overcome any of these with a good VP choice is wishful thinking on the part of the GOP.

[IrreverentView]

Indubio, Your observations are so one-sided and unobjective they have no merit.

[Johnnn]

McCain's best pick might be Elizabeth Dole, Senator from North Carolina. It would lock up NC instead of having it leaning to McCain, and conservatives would be pleased. Also, despite how certain all you Obama people are that the issues matter most, you have angry Hillary people who just will never vote for Obama, and choosing Dole may persuade any angry female Hillary voters to cast a defiant vote for McCain instead of staying home. This last factor helps McCain across the entire Country.
If I was betting on this, I'd go with Dole.

[flamflurm]

Smart. I hadn't even heard of this possibility.

[SatanicPanic]

McCain already reminds people of Bob Dole.

[IrreverentView]

McCain may be older, but he's not Bob Dole. The guy is fit as a fiddle and could probably outlast most 35 year olds in physical activity.

[wbramh]

But without the wit and wood.

[IrreverentView]

McCain will carry NC. Remember, Obama's "big win" was in a primary with a large black vote that will be dilluted in the general. Edwards didn't even carry this state when he was on the ticket.

[IrreverentView]

McCain will carry NC. Remember, Obama's "big win" in NC was in the primary. In the general the black vote will be substantially dilluted. Remember, Edwards on the ticket couldn't even give NC to the dems.

[Moose49]

Yeah, he should pick Haley Barbour, the big-time corporate lobbyist. Perfect fit for a campaign being run by big-time corporate lobbyists Charlie Black and Rick Davis.

Or maybe he should pick his economic advisor, the man who brought us the subprime crisis, former Sen. Phil Gramm.

Or perhaps he should go with The Exorcist, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

What a range of choices McSame has!

[flamflurm]

Obama should choose Jim Johnson then. Oh, wait. He already has.

[IrreverentView]

Moose, Haley Barbour's negatives were clearly pointed out in the column. What is your point?

[Moose49]

I'm just being snarky. Not disputing anything in the column; more like piling on.

[mooreaj2]

it is so important to give our veterans the best care and benefits when returning and often times we do not. Whether it be a wife that cheated on her man while he was gone, a lost family, PTSD or having trouble getting a job the affects of post war can be so very stressful. Veterans deserve the best care because they have EARNED it!
I am still not sure whether McCain supports better benefits for Veterans by rejecting the current GI Bill or if he is just doesn't want to spend the money. Someone please enlighten me

I would like to share my story of my job struggle. I become a member of www.vetfriends.com which boasts over 866,000 veteran military members. They have an online job board as well as they have created an online nationwide business directory of veteran owned companies. http://www.vetfriends.com/directory/
What a great way to honor vets, do business with them!
Also who better to hire a veteran than a fellow vet! Try contacting these fellas and see if they have any openings in your area. Also they have a business resource center and guide with information on how to start your own business and receive government grants as a veteran of the military!