Less than 24 hours after Barack Obama's middle-America drubbing of John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, everyone's finally able to talk with some modicum of finality and assuredness about that elusive youth vote we've heard so much about.
The general consensus in the weeks leading up to Iowa was on an absolute necessity for Obama to galvanize the youth vote and get new voters - particularly students - to caucus. The real question in everyone's mind was whether the kids in the "Hope" T-shirts would actually show up and sit around for two hours in support of the senator.
Obviously, that happened. David Yepsen put it down well in this morning's Des Moines Register:
Obama won by attracting new caucusgoers, including a lot of independents who reregistered as Democrats to participate. He also attracted support from younger caucusgoers to topple Clinton, who had hoped to attract enough first-time female caucusgoers to stave off the Edwards and Obama forces. Instead, the entrance polls showed Obama actually attracted more women than Clinton did.
That's basically the down-the-line analysis across the country today. And it's right on - but even the acknowledgment that youth voters actually turned out, and that they overwhelmingly sided with Obama, doesn't do the scene on the ground enough justice.
What I saw at a caucus on Drake University's campus wasn't just the youth showing up in greater-than-average numbers. It was an ultra-organized effort, one that will spell revolution for Obama if the student vote can be similarly handled in New Hampshire and the rest of the early primary states.
Along with three reporters from the Daily Nebraskan, I presented myself in an empty student union around 3 p.m. (the union at Drake had been opened, as had space at other universities, for students to come back to school in order to caucus). By 5 the crowd had swelled to about two dozen people, most of whom had come from out of state to participate.
Drake Freshman Matt Patterson drove from Kansas City to caucus; he and others planned to spend the night in a sleeping bag at the student center after the event. A biochemistry major with medical aspirations, this is exactly the kind of kid Yepsen and the rest have been writing about. They're supposed to be totally uninterested in politics, and may have been before the caucus. But Patterson was here to caucus for Obama - and he was pumped.
"People are kind of [coming back to Drake] in groups," he said. "We drove up here to be here ... obviously we're excited about it."
As a precinct captain for Obama, Drake Junior Phillip Gaynor was set to work as a persuader during the caucus. "I've been a pretty solid supporter from the beginning," he said, adding that a Clinton dynasty wouldn't benefit the country. "I don't think that's a good precedent."
"I've got a lot of hopes pinned on Obama," he added, dropping that oh-so-common word that defined Obama's message in Iowa.
Aside from the odd Republican and a small contingent of especially stoic Chris Dodd interns, Obama was the talk of the campus as everyone marched down an icy sidewalk to caucus.
And that, of course, was where the fun began. Perhaps I'm just a naïve observer; I've never seen this sort of thing before - it was an absolute electoral circus.
Through the yelling and cajoling and dancing and whatever else, though, Obama's student contingent stayed strong and organized all night. The vast majority of the students in the room turned out for Obama and didn't change their minds, even as Edwards supporters, Clinton supporters and Richardson people spent all night playing a horribly frantic match of musical chairs. Gaynor and fellow precinct captain Jordan Oster were energized and had a plan - a stark contrast to the harried arguments and worried negotiation going on elsewhere in the room.
Point is, the impact of the student vote went deeper than hard numbers last night in Iowa. Sure, it's important to single out Obama's statistical appeal to youth. And obviously, one must tip one's hat to his revolutionary ground game and his ability to turn out the vote (Oster claimed, for example, that Obama was the only candidate to direct-mail high school voters).
But this was, for all intents and purposes, as much about emotion as it was about numbers. The Obama people we saw at Drake and across Des Moines were truly into this - they were excited in a way the rest weren't, and this translated into committed support at the caucus.
Even as the carnival moves to New Hampshire and Iowa finally fades from the public eye, understand that this wasn't just about statistics. Students and young people are going to turn out nationwide given the press that's out on their impact in Iowa. Obama has them in the bag for now, and they're seemingly committed. Unless Hillary Clinton finds a way to unleash some sort of real student-centered emotion into her campaign, it looks like a demographic that's totally in the gutter.
And, as we kids had the distinct pleasure of seeing Thursday, it's a demographic that can topple kings and queens alike.
Argue about it all you like. He ruled the day six ways to Sunday.
Hillary is toast. Solid proof that there is a God.
With the "youth vote" and $3.50 you can buy a Starbucks cup of coffee.
There's one factor I think alot of folks are missing about the "youth vote". While these new voters are energized and inspired by Sen. Obama, by and large, they don't seem to share the intense, almost VICSERAL dislike of Sen. Clinton that some older Obama supporters seem to have.
The great thing about drawing younger people into the primary process, is that these first time voters are likely to feel VESTED in the process. Folks of ALL ages who vote in the primaries are VERY unlikely to skip the general election, even if thier preferred choice is not the nominee.
While not as popular as Obama, Sen. Clinton still retains the goodwill of many younger voters (who are likely to view the election of a Woman to the Presidency in a positive light), and former President Clinton remains VERY popular across the board. These folks view the 90's (accurately in my view) as a time of peace and prosperity, the Clinton Presidency as sucessful for the most part, and younger folks largely don't CARE whether Bill inhaled, or what his private sex life might be like. While not as exciting and inspiring (to them) as an Obama presidency, I have to think these young voters would look with a favorable eye on "a third Clinton term" and see it as a VAST improvement vis-avis the Bush administration, should Sen. Obama NOT win the nomination.
If Senator Clinton (or John Edwards, for that matter) can win in the larger, more traditional primary states, (easily possible) whoever is the nominee will owe a LARGE debt or gratitude to Sen. Obama's motivated, engaged, supporters....who will represent a FORMIDABLE voting bloc to carry into the general election. ...........................tm
Before you vote for ANYONE, no matter your age or theirs, forget all but two things:
What are the SPECIFIC policies the candidate proposes?
What are the SPECIFIC qualities and qualifications the candidate can bring to bear to ensure that those policies are implemented?
Everything else is so much smoke and mirrors!
roll your dice in NH
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-8/1210139/OldLadyLuck.jpg
cuz ya crapped out in Iowa
I'd like to examine the youth vote for a minute. They easily accept the 'experience doesn't matter' mantra of Obama, why, because they don't have any experience! Have you old people like me tried to hire some of these kids lately, they are all looking for entry level CEO positions. The baby boom generation raised these kids to be dismissive of all experience and believe that they can't do anything wrong. i was pretty cocky when I got out of college, but my friends and I still believed in working your way up, putting in your time and working overtime to gain accomplishments.
No wonder the youth vote believes that after being a state Senator for a few years and inspirational speaker can run the US
And don't criticize what you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command
Your old road is rapidly agin'
Please get out of the new one if you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'
Prophet Bob Dylan!
If I were 18, I might be for Obama too. Now I am a tiny bit more world-weary and experienced.
Edwards 08. War crimes trials 09.