Shake it any given day and you can find a different and increasingly difficult path for President Obama's reelection chances on his Electoral College map. Still, it's not too much of a stretch to find glimmers of hope for him.
A new Gallup survey of state-by-state approval ratings shows that he probably holds a solid base of 211 Electoral College votes. That's well short of the necessary 270 but, while his opportunities for making up the difference are not exactly target rich, there are some.
The Base
There are enough states where Obama's approval is at 50 percent or better to assume a starting point of 211 votes. (See Gallup map below)
Battlegrounds
Six states with another 90 votes show that his approval, while below 50 percent, at least exceeds his disapproval rating: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. A sweep of those would give him a comfortable margin. But those last three Southern battlegrounds could be quite tough.
Wild Cards
Last time Obama won several states where his approval now trails his disapproval. If he can somehow reclaim the magic of 2008 this would be his next tier of opportunity. In the order of his best approval standings this category includes: New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Indiana and New Hampshire (where just 40 percent approve).
Obama's greatest challenge in holding his map together is how a lousy economy roiling hard-hit Rust Belt and Midwestern states offers Republicans a chance to make inroads among large chunks of older and blue-collar white voters. (Hence, his bus trip through the region next week to talk about job creation.)
It's not a pretty map for the White House but, tricky and treacherous as his steps could be, there are a few paths to victory.
Now on Craig's blog: Is it August 2012 Already?
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There's considerable shock and anger at him here for failing utterly to stand with the public service unions, and progressives in general, against the Koch brothers' attempt, through their lackey, Scott Walker, to destroy our unions and repeal our state's progressive heritage. Obama boycotted the recent protests in Madison and has failed to weigh in on the recall elections. (Some Democrat he is!) If he returns to the state to campaign next year, he'll find considerable displeasure with his presence and a smaller, less-receptive audience than in 2008.
Michigan may not be a slam dunk for Obama, either, and the Democratic Party ought to replace him on the national ticket. Even if he wins re-election, we'll all risk the consequences: his further support and extension of Bush43's policies on tax, war and civil liberties and his personal non-support of collective bargaining rights that are critical to America having a middle class. Sadly, the DNC seems thoroughly out of touch with reality. (Their operatives ran the campaign for Walker's opponent in 2010--into the ground. They evidently didn't understand Wisconsin well enough to matter. There's not much evidence that they do now.)
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. There would no longer be 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of other states.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes-- enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA ,RI, VT, and WA . The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL,CA, NJ, MD, MA, VT, and WA. These 9 jurisdictions possess 132 electoral votes-- 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
http://www.NationalPopularVote.com